Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

NSW has a large program requiring people to test for work related reasons that are all mixed into the one test pool along with those who are symptomatic or have a case/site exposure, and Vic in the main only has the latter.

Incorrect. Extra surveillance testing for workers in LGAs of concerns needing to leave was discontinued weeks ago. It was replaced with vaccine mandates for all health workers and requirement for construction workers working outside their LGA.

The main asymptomatic testing happening now is in Covid facing roles i.e HQ workers (also in play in Vic), close contacts (also happens in Vic).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

There is no point comparing the daily volume of NSW and Vic Testing numbers at present as they are quite different beasts at present.

NSW has a large program requiring people to test for work related reasons that are all mixed into the one test pool along with those who are symptomatic or have a case/site exposure, and Vic in the main only has the latter.


Besides as vaccinations rise more and more vaccinated symptomatic people will not present for testing unless they feel unwell. This in turn will lead to less close contacts being directed to get tested.

The numbers to monitor will be hospitalisations, those treated at home, ICU and deaths. ie As with the flu where many people who have the flu never get tested.

There have been some changes to surveillance testing since about 6 September.

Greater Sydney workers leaving Greater Sydney for work by more than 50km need to have asymptomatic testing in the last 7 days.

Also freight workers need to test regularly under the 'national' cross-State border rules. Of course Sydney-based freight workers may fall under the working more than 50km outside Greater Sydney rules.

Apparently some industries still have routine testing - both PCR and rapid antigen.

How to protect yourself from COVID-19 and help prevent the spread

Everything you need to know about staying safe from COVID-19 and protecting those around you.

www.nsw.gov.au

 

[jase05]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1437185239973990401

 

[Must...Fly!]

Lack of a Sunday drop off is a bit curious

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Lack of a Sunday drop off is a bit curious

What drop off (edit: for Vic) are you referring to (or that happened previously and didn't happen on Sunday)?

NSW has a small rise in cases but a lot more tests compared to the previous day - 1257 known positives and 137k tests.

Today, some deaths in the elderly with underlying health conditions both vaccinated and unvaccinated. I think one death unvaccinated and no mention of underlying health conditions.

 

[Quickstatus]

Lack of a Sunday drop off is a bit curious

If referring to NSW, Sunday testing have been always among the highest of the 7 day week. I suspect this is because people get tested on Sunday in preparation for work on Monday. Wednesday is number 2.

The testing number for Sunday is bang on average for the last 15 days and less than 1 standard deviation from average for the rolling 30 days

Speculative:
The lack of Sunday drop off could be explained by the low testing numbers on Saturday compared to Sunday - maybe some got tested on Sunday instead of the day before pushing some of the Saturday number onto Sunday?

Is Sunday higher than what it really is and Saturday lower than what it really is?

The encouraging number is that the positivity rate (number of positive per testing number) is now less than 1%

Victoria positivity rate also around the same 1%

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Curious what levers NSW Health might pull if any in the next 4 weeks.

Sydney LGA has moved into the top 10 for the week (population adjusted). I guess there are cases in Redfern and Glebe as highlighted in the recent NSW authorities press conferences. Not sure if covid got critical workers or got into some key households.

Also Camden has similar population adjusted figures as Sydney but I'm uncertain whether any suburbs got a mention.

None of the 12 LGAs of concern seem to be strong candidates based on population adjusted figures to leave the firmer restrictions - may be Burwood, but it only recently started to get more cases.

 

[OATEK]

Also Camden has similar population adjusted figures as Sydney but I'm uncertain whether any suburbs got a mention.

I suspect there are a lot more homeless and vulnerable people living in the City of Sydney LGA than Camden, but happy to be proved wrong. Both the Premier and Deputy CHO said they were concerned about vulnerable populations rather than absolute numbers.

 

[moa999]

Sydney LGA has moved into the top 10 for the week (population adjusted

Where are you seeing pop adjusted figures?

Sydney LGA contains a bunch of homeless and social housing (partic Redfern, Surry Hills, and Woolloomooloo).

But also skews young, so vaccination rates are lower.

 

[antycbr]

Where are you seeing pop adjusted figures?

Sydney LGA contains a bunch of homeless and social housing (partic Redfern, Surry Hills, and Woolloomooloo).

But also skews young, so vaccination rates are lower.

Also I think that they need to open some proper hubs around this area. Personally I'd be keen on them using the Horden Pavillion as it's got heaps of parking and well ventilated as a site for the eastern part of the city rather than being right in the city.

Otherwise they could use the East Sydney Community Centre which is a testing site and move that elsewhere.

 

[Lynda2475]

I suspect there are a lot more homeless and vulnerable people living in the City of Sydney LGA than Camden

Definitely, huge homeless camps in several parks surrounding Central Station plus the massive one in Wentworth Park.

Redfern and Woolloomooloo have been heavily gentrified but still have pockets of housing commission.

The social housing in those areas actually skews older, very sought after, people dont tend to move on quickly. But St Vincents have been running pop up vax sites around the cross and Redfern for a few months now. There is a lot of student accommodation in Redfern and Chippendale but a lot of that is under occupied atm due to lack of international students.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Where are you seeing pop adjusted figures?

Sydney LGA contains a bunch of homeless and social housing (partic Redfern, Surry Hills, and Woolloomooloo).

But also skews young, so vaccination rates are lower.

Because early in one press conference the NSW Premier referred to Burwood remaining in the 12 LGAs because of population adjusted, I looked but could not find population adjusted figures

So I got figures from two different places.

I just copied the population figures one day from the NSW heatmap. The figures are probably adjusted from the 2016 census, but I guess that's useful enough for NSW Health to publish.

And I use the covid19.nsw.ethan.link for the LGA numbers (but acknowledging the notes indicating they are not alway complete)

 

[Lynda2475]

Burwood (40k) and Strathfield (47k) are both very small LGAs compared with their neighbouring LGAs of Canterbury Bankstown (380k), in part they are being pulled in as buffers.

When classifying as a LGA of concern the state is looking at cases numbers per population but also vaccination rates. Burwood only has 38% fully vaccinated which is low compared to NSW average so wont be helping them.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Where are you seeing pop adjusted figures?

Sydney LGA contains a bunch of homeless and social housing (partic Redfern, Surry Hills, and Woolloomooloo).

But also skews young, so vaccination rates are lower.

Because early in one press conference the NSW Premier referred to Burwood remaining in the 12 LGAs because of population adjusted, I looked but could not find population adjusted figures

So I got figures from two different places.

I just copied the population figures one day from the NSW heatmap. The figures are probably adjusted from the 2016 census, but I guess that's useful enough for NSW Health to publish.

And I use the covid19.nsw.ethan.link for the LGA numbers (but acknowledging the notes indicating they are not alway complete)

For transparency/information, this is the ranking of a selection of Sydney LGAs and the week's (inserted:"population adjusted") known positives (last updated on Saturday)

coughberland - 577 (/100,000 population)
Canterbury-Bankstown - 490
Liverpool - 390
Strathfield - 280
Fairfield - 258
Blacktown - 253
Penrith - 186
Campbelltown - 171
Sydney - 164
Parramatta - 132
Camden - 124
Randwick - 119
Georges River - 116
Bayside - 112
Burwood - 73
Inner West - 62

 

[Lynda2475]

Those numbers don't seem to reconcile to the official site : Find the facts about COVID-19

Burwood LGA (which also includes some of Croydon and Enfield) has 40 active cases from a population of 40,866 people whereas the suburb of Burwood itself has 30 of those active cases from a population of 18,235. That would be 97 cases per 100k of population (not that the population is anywhere near 100k).

Strathfield LGA (which also includes Strathfield South, part of Homebush West and part of Homebush) has 174 active cases 46,767. That would be 372 cases per 100k of population (not that the population is anywhere near 100k).

Canterbury-Bankstown LGA (which also includes Greenacre, Chullora, Sefton, Milperra, Revesby, Belmore, Ashbury, Easthills, Earlwood) has 2807 active cases from a population of 380,406. That is 737 cases per 100k of population.

 

[Lynda2475]

For those who were doubting it, Gladys confirmed today “I want to say it clearly: if you are not vaccinated, you will not have the freedoms that vaccinated people have even when we get to 80 per cent double-dose.”

 

[jrfsp]

Yass Valley going back into lockdown​

The Yass Valley Council area in the NSW Southern Tablelands will go back into lockdown for two weeks, from midnight tonight.

A positive case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in the community, following a recent positive sewage detection.

Stay-at-home orders apply to all people in the Yass Valley Council area, and includes anyone who visited the region on or after Thursday 9 September.

The Yass Valley Council area had only been released from lockdown 2 days ago, on Saturday the 11th of September.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yass Valley going back into lockdown​

The Yass Valley Council area in the NSW Southern Tablelands will go back into lockdown for two weeks, from midnight tonight.

A positive case of COVID-19 has been confirmed in the community, following a recent positive sewage detection.

Stay-at-home orders apply to all people in the Yass Valley Council area, and includes anyone who visited the region on or after Thursday 9 September.

The Yass Valley Council area had only been released from lockdown 2 days ago, on Saturday the 11th of September.

The thing about regional NSW still having covid zero in play is perhaps the covid-zero states might see how things go opening up with high vaccination rates (ie post 80%) - but I think most in this thread will expect to see the known positive number rise, but hopefully no significant rise in hospitalisation and ICU.

I do wonder to what extent the NSW Deputy Premier (being notionally the main decision maker on regional NSW restrictions/targeted restrictions) will hold his nerve in a post-80% world.

 

[Lynda2475]

I do wonder to what extent the NSW Deputy Premier (being notionally the main decision maker on regional NSW restrictions/targeted restrictions) will hold his nerve in a post-80% world.

Gladys already put him back in place today, correcting his incorrect advice that non-vaccinated people would also get freedoms at 80%, stating clearly that they would not. Vaccinate or stay or excluded, choice is simple.

 

[Milboo]

Also I think that they need to open some proper hubs around this area. Personally I'd be keen on them using the Horden Pavillion as it's got heaps of parking and well ventilated as a site for the eastern part of the city rather than being right in the city.

Otherwise they could use the East Sydney Community Centre which is a testing site and move that elsewhere.

There is a vax hub in the CBD. Hodern Pavillion is poor choice as it’s not easily served by public transport and generally there is lower car ownership in Central Sydney.

Regardless you can walk into many pharmacies and get a vax on the spot, without appointments.