Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dairyfloss]

NSW
10/12 516 positives, 90k tests, 158 hospital, 24 ICU
11/12 560 positives, 82k tests, 150 hospital, 25 ICU
12/12 485 positives, 90k tests, 156 hospital, 23 ICU
13/12 536 positives, 75k tests, 171 hospital, 24 ICU
14/12 804 positives, 86k tests, 168 hospital, 21 ICU
15/12 1360 positives, 104k tests, 166 hospital, 24 ICU
16/12 1742 positives, 143k tests, 192 hospital, 26 ICU
17/12 2213 positives, 127k tests, 215 hospital, 24 ICU

At NSW's peak on 21 Sep, we hit nearly 6 times this number in hospital (1,268), and more than 10 times those in ICU (242). Hospitalisation increasing as cases climb makes sense in my non-medical mind, with fear and uncertainly around Omicron bound to be driving some of this, for now, as well... but ICU should tell the real story of whether there is a need for concern? So far, so good... let's see in 2-3 weeks.

 

[jakeseven7]

At NSW's peak on 21 Sep, we hit nearly 6 times this number in hospital (1,268), and more than 10 times those in ICU (242). Hospitalisation increasing as cases climb makes sense in my non-medical mind, with fear and uncertainly around Omicron bound to be driving some of this, for now, as well... but ICU should tell the real story of whether there is a need for concern? So far, so good... let's see in 2-3 weeks.

Back then there was far less vaccine coverage too.

What will also determine the number of hospital presentations is who is getting infected..

Like our vocabulary challenged QLD premier once said - Covid will hunt down and find unvaccinated people. They will be the ones over representing in acute care.

Secondary to that will be people tardy on their boosters and those with underlying health concerns and contributing factors like obesity, diabetes etc etc.

 

[dairyfloss]

Back then there was far less vaccine coverage too.

What will also determine the number of hospital presentations is who is getting infected..

Like our vocabulary challenged QLD premier once said - Covid will hunt down and find unvaccinated people. They will be the ones over representing in acute care.

Secondary to that will be people tardy on their boosters and those with underlying health concerns and contributing factors like obesity, diabetes etc etc.

I also recall kids being admitted together with parents, regardless of the health need, as they otherwise had no carers

 

[Lynda2475]

I also recall kids being admitted together with parents, regardless of the health need, as they otherwise had no carers

Only 2 that I can recall, and they were not counted in the hospitalization figures as were not being treated. They were not artificially inflating the hospital numbers.

However there were positive elderly aged care residents who were sent to hospital out of an abundance of caution who didn't always need that level of care.

 

[Lynda2475]

Breakdown of LHD for 2,213 NSW cases today Metro in Black, Regional in Green:

• 674 from Hunter New England
• 279 from South Eastern Sydney
• 266 from Western Sydney
• 261 from South Western Sydney
• 204 from Sydney
• 165 from Northern Sydney
• 96 from Northern NSW
• 88 from Central Coast
• 32 from Illawarra Shoalhaven
• 30 from Mid North Coast
• 29 from Western NSW
• 25 from Murrumbidgee
• 25 from Nepean Blue Mountains
• seven from Southern NSW
• four from Far West
• 28 are yet to be assigned to an LHD

No material increase in ICU

 

[Quickstatus]

At NSW's peak on 21 Sep, we hit nearly 6 times this number in hospital (1,268), and more than 10 times those in ICU (242)

The context missing from this is that NSW Health modelling predicted 560 ICU cases at the peak. And the peak was going to be a month later in October.
Basically ALL the modelling has been wrong in the same way - severely overestimating the actual.

If there were modelling which under AND over predicted, then I would have said fair enough, but totally wrong in the same way?

There is no reason that the modellers will now get it right. And the problem is that people see that and are less trusting in what is put out there in the public domain.

 

[dairyfloss]

The context missing from this is that NSW Health modelling predicted 560 ICU cases at the peak. And the peak was going to be a month later in October.
Basically ALL the modelling has been wrong in the same way - severely overestimating the actual.

If there were modelling which under AND over predicted, then I would have said fair enough, but totally wrong in the same way?

There is no reason that the modellers will now get it right. And the problem is that people see that and are less trusting in what is put out there in the public domain.

True - but they are only modeling the positive cases now, right? Has there been any high or low indicators of where they think hospitalisation and ICU are headed?

 

[Quickstatus]

but they are only modeling the positive cases now, right?

The modelling has not been released into the public domain
Currently the health minister throwing a 25,000 number around. We all know by now how the previous number throwing activities ended up.
Random number generator??

If you want to look further at what the same university modellers (who came up with the 25000 and the predicted 560 ICU cases) are saying about mathematical modelling for Covid including ICU forecasting see here

 

[jakeseven7]

NSW will cease genomic sequencing to ID Omicron v Delta etc as its assumed it will basically be Omicron everything in few days.

They will only sequence if they believe it will make a significant difference to clinical treatment.

 

[Quickstatus]

They will only sequence if they believe it will make a significant difference to clinical treatment.

Correct as the treatment is exactly the same and any potential social restrictions measures are exactly the same.

Should also only test if it will make a difference to clinical treatment
- test if close contact
- otherwise test if develop symptoms
- asymptomatic testing to stop

Go back to basics of medicine. Do a treatment or order a test only if it will change the clinical management.

 

[JessicaTam]

[mod hat]
Off topic posts have been removed.
[/mod hat]

 

[jakeseven7]

Correct as the treatment is exactly the same and any potential social restrictions measures are exactly the same.

Should also only test if it will make a difference to clinical treatment
- test if close contact
- otherwise test if develop symptoms
- asymptomatic testing to stop

Go back to basics of medicine. Do a treatment or order a test only if it will change the clinical management.

Exactly.

For those who missed it the QLD CHO just gave a really sensible press conference (imagine anyone saying that a couple of months ago).

Says we cannot freak out about the increase in cases, omicron will be the variant that spreads in QLD, people need to take personal responsibility etc.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Victoria
10/12 1206 positives, 66k tests, 313 hospital, 61 ICU
11/12 1193 positives, 82k tests, 323 hospital, 68 ICU
12/12 1069 positives, 67k tests, 310 hospital, 74 ICU
13/12 1290 positives, 55k tests, 323 hospital, 77 ICU
14/12 1189 positives, 54k tests, 364 hospital, 80 ICU
15/12 1405 positives, 77k tests, 365 hospital, 84 ICU
16/12 1622 positives, 80k tests, 384 hospital, 87 ICU
17/12 1510 positives, 82k tests, 386 hospital, 82 ICU
18/12 1504 positives, 88k tests, 384 hospital, 84 ICU
19/12 1240 positives, 76k tests, 392 hospital, 81 ICU

NSW
10/12 516 positives, 90k tests, 158 hospital, 24 ICU
11/12 560 positives, 82k tests, 150 hospital, 25 ICU
12/12 485 positives, 90k tests, 156 hospital, 23 ICU
13/12 536 positives, 75k tests, 171 hospital, 24 ICU
14/12 804 positives, 86k tests, 168 hospital, 21 ICU
15/12 1360 positives, 104k tests, 166 hospital, 24 ICU
16/12 1742 positives, 143k tests, 192 hospital, 26 ICU
17/12 2213 positives, 127k tests, 215 hospital, 24 ICU
18/12 2482 positives, 137k tests, 206 hospital 26 ICU
19/12 2566 positives, 148k tests, 227 hospital, 28 ICU

ACT
10/12 6 positives, 1.3k tests, 5 hospital, 2 ICU
11/12 11 positives, 1.4k tests, 5 hospital, 2 ICU
12/12 1 positive, 1.2k tests, 4 hospital, 2 ICU
13/12 3 positives, 1.8k tests, 4 hospital, 2 ICU
14/12 4 positives, 1.6k tests, 4 hospital, 1 ICU
15/12 7 positives, 2.1k tests, 3 hospital, 1 ICU
16/12 11 positives, 2.4k tests, 3 hospital, 1 ICU
17/12 20 positives, 2.1k tests, 4 hospital, 0 ICU
18/12 18 positives, 3.3k tests, 3 hospital, 0 ICU
19/12 18 positives, 1.7k tests, 3 hospital, 0 ICU

NT
10/12 4 positives (1 non-local, 3 local), 1.9k tests
11/12 1 positive (local), 2.8k tests
12/12 4 positives (1 non-local, 3 local), 2.0k tests
13/12 17 positives (1 non-local, 16 local), 1.7k tests
14/12 1 positive (local), 2.3k tests
15/12 13 positives (7 non-local, 6 local), 2.7k tests
16/12 1 positive (non-local), 3.2k tests
17/12 8 positives (2 non-local, 6 local) 3.0k tests
18/12 1 positive (local - total outbreak 101), 2.5k tests
19/12 9 positives (2 non-local, 7 local - total outbreak 108), 1 ICU (edit to add)

SA
10/12 8 positives (1 oversea acquired, 4 interstate acquired, 1 unlinked, 2 local linked), 10.8k tests, 2 hospital
11/12 7 positives (1 interstate acquired, 3 unlinked, 3 local linked), 13.6k tests, 3 hospital
12/12 10 positives (1 interstate acquired, 3 unlinked, 6 local linked), 13.6k tests, 3 hospital
13/12 13 positives (2 overseas acquired, 5 interstate acquired, 2 unlinked, 4 local linked), 15.1k tests, 3 hospital
14/12 12 positives (1 interstate acquired, 6 unlinked, 5 local linked), 14.8k tests, 2 hospital
15/12 25 positives (1 overseas acquired, 3 interstate acquired, 8 unlinked, 13 local linked - Norwood 40, other 23), 17.2k tests, 2 hospital (but 1 cleared of covid)
16/12 24 positives (1 overseas acquired, 7 interstate acquired, 7 unlinked, 9 local linked - Norwood 40, other 32), 19.3k tests, 2 hospital (but 1 cleared of covid)
17/12 64 positives (3 overseas acquired, 21 unlinked, 40 local linked), 17.3k tests, 2 hospital
18/12 73 positives (1 overseas acquired, 2 interstate acquired, 41 unlinked, 29 local linked), 19.2k tests, 2 hospital
19/12

Qld
10/12 9 positives (4 local, 5 non-local, but 2 in the community), 11.0k tests
11/12 1 positive (local), 9.2k tests
12/12 1 positive (non-local), 11.9k tests
13/12 10 positives (9 non-local, 1 local), 9.3k tests
14/12 4 positives (all non-local, but 1 in community), 10.6k tests
15/12 6 positives (6 interstate acquired), 12.3k tests
16/12 22 positives (3 overseas acquired, 12 interstate acquired, 7 local), 11.7k tests
17/12 20 positives (4 overseas acquired, 7 interstate acquired, 9 local), 14.6k tests
18/12 31 positives (2 overseas acquired, 5 interstate acquired, 24 local), 16.1k tests
19/12 42 positives (1 overseas acquired, 7 interstate acquired, 34 local) 18.3k tests

Tasmania
16/12 1 positive
17/12 2 positives
18/12 1 positive
19/12 3 positives

 

[Pushka]

So Covid has struck the Adelaide Test match with an active member of the BBC media testing positive. Currently no media allowed to enter the oval until it has all been assessed.

Chances of the UK team hanging around for three more matches? Christmas Test maybe but my bet is that there will be a cancellation of matches.

 

[antycbr]

So Covid has struck the Adelaide Test match with an active member of the BBC media testing positive. Currently no media allowed to enter the oval until it has all been assessed.

Chances of the UK team hanging around for three more matches? Christmas Test maybe but my bet is that there will be a cancellation of matches.

The ECB will be done by Cricket Australia and the broadcasters for contract breach unless the Government orders it to be closed.

Merlino confirmed that there are no changes to Boxing Day at the MCG and we all know how much Dom loves restrictions.

 

[jase05]

So Covid has struck the Adelaide Test match with an active member of the BBC media testing positive. Currently no media allowed to enter the oval until it has all been assessed.

Chances of the UK team hanging around for three more matches? Christmas Test maybe but my bet is that there will be a cancellation of matches.

Several spectators at the test positive over the first 3 days and spectators are having close contact with players. Just play on and forget all this nonsense hopefully

 

[Pushka]

Several spectators at the test positive over the first 3 days and spectators are having close contact with players. Just play on and forget all this nonsense hopefully

Unfortunately we don't get to make that call but Health does. An Oz media person was at a cricket function this morning seemingly oblivious...

 

[Must...Fly!]

So Covid has struck the Adelaide Test match with an active member of the BBC media testing positive. Currently no media allowed to enter the oval until it has all been assessed.

Chances of the UK team hanging around for three more matches? Christmas Test maybe but my bet is that there will be a cancellation of matches.

Once out of SA things become markedly easier. Worst case, fifth test at MCG or SCG. Problem gone.

 

[Pushka]

Once out of SA things become markedly easier. Worst case, fifth test at MCG or SCG. Problem gone.

The UK team abandoned a Test series last year. Hopefully as their families are with them they will stay.

 

[antycbr]

The UK team abandoned a Test series last year. Hopefully as their families are with them they will stay.

The total cost is $200m in revenue for a 5 match series. There’s too much money at stake.