Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

We've got our whole lives to live with this. 4 weeks doesn't prove anything - we need 12 months to prove we can live with it - and just how sustainability we can live with it. As Europe is finding out vaccine efficacy wanes after a few months - lets see how we go through winter.

If, in 4 weeks time, NSW is having tens of thousands of cases a day and bodies aren’t lining the corridors of overrun ICU wards, I’d be very surprised to see any real compliance moving forward.

There are only 8 million people in this state. A state that is significantly larger than many European countries. It won’t take long for everyone to “catch it” and then it’s def game over. The good news is that NSW seems to be the one stage that wants to give up its powers.

 

[dairyfloss]

Needing to wear a mask outside (something that has never ever been required in NSW) is a turn off to visiting Victoria. At some point you need to be able to breathe some fresh air.

errr... actually, for a period up until October 11th, masks were required everywhere, both indoors and outdoors in NSW, except when exercising. It was awful, and that was with much more palatable weather to accompany it as well.

 

[jakeseven7]

Not set in stone yet. Besides it was mentioned in context of sporting events, i.e. when concentrated in crowds often under shelter and with limited airflow vs just strolling outside or sitting down for a picnic etc.

Honestly wearing masks at the Aus Open is probably a good idea.

 

[jrfsp]

Omicron cases could hit 200,000 a day, modelling shows

Surging Omicron infections will overwhelm the health system unless some restrictions return, according to modelling prepared by the Doherty Institute for national cabinet.

www.theage.com.au

As we know all models are wrong but some are useful. Hopefully the updated modelling will be publicly released

 

[OATEK]

Covid has struck down our Christmas plans. Grandson (3yo) is a close contact of a Kindy carer, and so has to get a test and go into 7 days isolation (ends 27/12). So daughter effectively locked down with him, and no big family get together. Lots of tears, but provided he does not test positive we can have a belated Christmas around New years.

 

[MooTime]

I have no issue wearing a mask indoors at busy places, airports, shopping centers, public transport etc.

Very likely to catch covid at some stage & fine with that, well accepting of it, but don't mind a minor prevention measure either.

 

[oznflfan]

Omicron cases could hit 200,000 a day, modelling shows

Surging Omicron infections will overwhelm the health system unless some restrictions return, according to modelling prepared by the Doherty Institute for national cabinet.

www.theage.com.au

As we know all models are wrong but some are useful. Hopefully the updated modelling will be publicly released

Bring it on, 200K per day, get everyone infected and gert this over and done with. Frankly I think no travel and moderate restrictions coming in soon, some scaredy cat states will revert to Lockdowns. Bathurst 12 Hour visit end of February 2022 looking bleak. Was hoping mid 2022 Europe fun in the sun, but maybe 2023 now. 2022 still likely a washout.

 

[Lynda2475]

errr... actually, for a period up until October 11th, masks were required everywhere, both indoors and outdoors in NSW, except when exercising. It was awful, and that was with much more palatable weather to accompany it as well.

Nope never ever had to wear one on a walk outside, only if standing in line outside. I regularly walked to the shops right past the cops mask less with zero issues, just pop a mask on before entering a shop, or stopping to line up at the coffee window,

Unlike in Victoria where walkers had to wear a mask, only joggers exempt.

I have no issue wearing a mask indoors at busy places, airports, shopping centers, public transport etc.

Me either but i take objection in having to wear one going for a walk by myself around the bay or in a park where im always meters away from other people.

 

[N860CR]

Bring it on, 200K per day, get everyone infected and gert this over and done with. Frankly I think no travel and moderate restrictions coming in soon, some scaredy cat states will revert to Lockdowns. Bathurst 12 Hour visit end of February 2022 looking bleak. Was hoping mid 2022 Europe fun in the sun, but maybe 2023 now. 2022 still likely a washout.

Yep. 200,000 a day, hey. I often wonder if the people who do this modeling have previously worked in Hollywood. Haven’t they heard of boy who cried wolf?

Our population is what? 25mil? 4ish months and the the whole country is done? If it’s that extreme then there’s no stopping it.

Australia is sitting on a mortality rate of 0.85% from this virus, a lot of that coming to be before the high vaccination rate. Even ignoring the extrapolation of mortality data amongst different age brackets, on raw numbers alone we’re talking a total of 20k deaths which would represent about 5% of total deaths over a two year period (again ignoring those who sadly would have died from other illnesses during the same period). It’s crass, but this is what we’re dealing with. How much longer is it worth kicking this down the road?

 

[Saab34]

That’s a big number, 200k a day over one month that’s 1 in 3 people catching it. Workplaces will cave under isolation requirements, shops and Hospo also. It’s long gone once we get to those numbers.

I would assume the mass seeding event is the next fortnight.

 

[dairyfloss]

Nope never ever had to wear one on a walk outside, only if standing in line outside. I regularly walked to the shops right past the cops mask less with zero issues, just pop a mask on before entering a shop, or stopping to line up at the coffee window,

Unlike in Victoria where walkers had to wear a mask, only joggers exempt.

You may not have chosen to follow the rules, but they were the rules, at the time. Exercise was of course open to interpretation, so not surprising that people wouldn’t be pulled up on that when ‘walking’.

This was a grab from the AFR on August 20th that confirmed when it came in (on Aug 23rd). I can’t be bothered finding the corresponding Health gazette:


Cheers,
Matt.

 

[jakeseven7]

Omicron cases could hit 200,000 a day, modelling shows

Surging Omicron infections will overwhelm the health system unless some restrictions return, according to modelling prepared by the Doherty Institute for national cabinet.

www.theage.com.au

As we know all models are wrong but some are useful. Hopefully the updated modelling will be publicly released

Has anyone done the math on that…? That would mean the entire country in a couple of months….

 

[henrus]

Has anyone done the math on that…? That would mean the entire country in a couple of months….

Something doesn't sound right... last time modelling was released it was taken way out of proportion.

 

[jakeseven7]

Something doesn't sound right... last time modelling was released it was taken way out of proportion.

No way….

 

[jrfsp]

The UK will soon 'record' 100K a day, but the real number is probably double / triple this. This is where cases will hit a limit against testing capacity anyhow.

If we have a 1/3 of the population its not hugely unimaginable if we are approaching the time of year with the most social interaction.

Even if we hit 100K - it will be maintaining critical services that will be an issue.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Has anyone done the math on that…? That would mean the entire country in a couple of months….

The modelling has many assumptions, including the severity being the same as delta.

The severity/ virulance is still unknown, though suspected to be less.

Taking South Africa as the settings is problematic due to their younger age profile, and that so many South Africans have already had covid. So some of the lower virulance there may be due to a more robust population contracting Omicron after already having survived an earlier strain.

A few more weeks and we will know more based on experience both here plus places like Portugal who have a higher vaccination rate than here.

 

[dajop]

Something doesn't sound right... last time modelling was released it was taken way out of proportion.

I have no doubt some modelling indicates that number. Whilst some other will be much lower. Media will always pick the highest number and run with it.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Of course it's a real shame there's no country anywhere in the world dealing with an uncontrolled omicron outbreak upon which we could gain some perspective on the matter of severity of symptoms and hospitalisation rates.

*Cough*

Oops better go for a test....

Edit: release of such data should lead to prosecution. How many people are going to be whipped up in to a mental frenzy over this, completely unnecessarily? Christmas plans ruined by data that should never see the light of day in public.

 

[sjk]

The economic implications of Australia testing enough to detect 200,000 new cases a day are terrifying.

 

[Saab34]

We can’t test a million people a day. Rapid tests will probably be the answer, the volumes of people will be too large to even record. Just stay at home if your positive etc.

NSW/VIC are currently having infrastructure problems testing 150k a day.

Perhaps stock up on a couple of rapid tests before they start to dry up.