Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

I mentioned supermarkets as an exception to the public places being closed eg pubs and clubs etc.
As to the private meetings those are the ones that did happen and will still happen as many do not follow the rules.And you can bet your bottom dollar that anyone who has others in their homes will be the ones that don't wear a mask then.

I think you missed my point which is that at least now that those who are doing the wrong thing at other times whether that being failing to self-isolate, hold illegal private parties or illegal family gathering etc, when out at places like supermarkets etc, are now less likely to infect those doing the right thing as they too will be wearing a mask at least these times

And even if these "wrong -doers" do try and flout the face mask rule, then at least I and anyone else can much more easily avoid them now at the supermarket now as well.

I might not be able to tell if someone has been having private parties, or should be in self-isolation, just by looking at them. But I can easily see if they have a mask on and those that do not I will keeping an extra wide margin away from (noting that some might be severe asthmatics etc, but if so they will probably appreciate that wide margin for their own health too).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

19 new cases in NSW today:

• Three people associated with the Crossroads Hotel cluster.
• Nine people associated with the Thai Rock restaurant cluster.
• Three cases are still under investigation.
• One South Western Sydney resident who acquired their infection in Victoria and has been self-isolating since arriving in NSW.
• Three are returned travellers in hotel quarantine.

The 3 (in red) are the ones to worry about - i believe these are in Port Macquaries.

Quite a lot of the NSW cases are regional (not Sydney) despite the Murdoch papers reporting Blue Mountains in Sydney numbers.

Port Macquarie orLake Macquarie? Ie nearer to Salamanders bay warning?

 

[dajop]

But if people don't wear masks properly, don't dispose of them appropriately, use them repeatedly and so on, benefits could be negated.

I guess the biggest problem with not wearing masks properly is that they don't offer the degree of protection to the wearer that is expected. Also the contamination of the mask is a huge problem - particularly in clinical settings, with sick breathing their nasty germs onto the outside surface of the mask. Touch that with your hands, wear it again etc etc, creates a significant potential for exposure.

However, from what I've read (which could be wrong, of course), even incorrectly worn masks, or face coverings (to stress its not just mask), should prevent the expulsion of a significant amount of air directly into the environment, therefore the contamination will be much lower, if everyone has face covering or mask.

Therefore, I think masks/face coverings are an all or nothing solution - either everyone wears one, or no-one does. If only 50% are wearing masks - the problems of disposla, contamination, wearing them correctly to prevent inflow of contaminated droplets etc is higher than if 100% are wearing masks.

 

[drron]

Certainly one strategy could be that when you test positive you should be required to wear a mask.As well if you are a contact of a known patient you should be required to wear a mask.Much more bang for your mask buck that way.
Of course this needs to be followed up but can be done when you are checking that such people are indeed isolating themselves.A mask could be given out on being told that you are positive or notified that you are a contact.Again if such advice is given over the phone they should be visited to explain what isolation means and so an opportunity to supply masks.

 

[p--and--t]

Certainly one strategy could be that when you test positive you should be required to wear a mask.As well if you are a contact of a known patient you should be required to wear a mask.Much more bang for your mask buck that way.
Of course this needs to be followed up but can be done when you are checking that such people are indeed isolating themselves.A mask could be given out on being told that you are positive or notified that you are a contact.Again if such advice is given over the phone they should be visited to explain what isolation means and so an opportunity to supply masks.

If a positive person is self isolating and obeying the rules, and resources that we don't have are being expended to monitor they are not leaving their own premises, then there's not a great deal of benefit in giving them the mask or asking them to wear one (because they won't be outside).

If they do leave home and don't wear it (because they are generally disobedient in both cases) and there is no general rule that everyone is wearing them, how on earth will it be monitored in a city of 5M people?

 

[Pushka]

There are five things in that report that makes me a bit hesitant.

1. Who is making the claims (from unsubstantiated source (FakeBook))
2. When did the alleged delays occur (we all know that testing was scant and difficult 3 months ago), not today
3. Where did the alleged delays occur (getting a test in hotspots in Vic and inner city is minutes [e.g.Airport West popup average wait time 3 minutes] to get a test at one of the popups, in the country where there are few cases and the tests done by scant heavily booked GP resources vastly different)
4. What symptoms did the person have, early on priority was given to those most likely to come up positive when testing was scarce and things were very much disorganised
5. Return of results is highly variable depending on where the swabs are from and where they are sent, interstate labs are being used from some Vic sites. Many people have reported getting texts with their results in less than 24 hours. So a generalisation on the impact to the population overall can't really be made from 1, 5 10, 20 experiences.

Well blackcat20 reported here the other day or so that TV waited five work days to get his results. So thats a week in iso and then a negative result. Does that help?

 

[drron]

If a positive person is self isolating and obeying the rules, and resources that we don't have are being expended to monitor they are not leaving their own premises, then there's not a great deal of benefit in giving them the mask or asking them to wear one (because they won't be outside).

If they do leave home and don't wear it (because they are generally disobedient in both cases) and there is no general rule that everyone is wearing them, how on earth will it be monitored in a city of 5M people?

Except that the Victorian evidence and QLD evidence is that many of those that should be self isolating aren't.
Just an extra layer of protection.the alternative is GPS tracking or ankle bracelets.

 

[Lynda2475]

Port Macquarie orLake Macquarie? Ie nearer to Salamanders bay warning?

Ooops yeah Lake Macquarie

 

[p--and--t]

Except that the Victorian evidence and QLD evidence is that many of those that should be self isolating aren't.

Absolutely correct. That's the whole point.

So as from today those who choose to break the rules and go to work or the shops when they maybe are supposed to be home must wear a mask or be fined.

So they are less likely to infect someone and others are less likely to be infected by them (nothing is 100% and experts can ramble on about %ages, but something is better than nothing)

A police officer (or any other member of the public) can't tell if a person walking down the street should be isolating, has been tested, is positive, is negative, is asymptomatic;

However, they can tell in the blink of an eyelid without stopping to question them if they are not social distancing, not wearing a mask and walking in groups of more than two without kids in tow.

 

[Lynda2475]

Breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19

• The most recent breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19 shows there a child aged under nine is receiving care.
• The figures from Tuesday, show there were three people aged 10-19 in hospital
• Two people in their twenties in ICU.
• Seven people in their thirties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU.
• Eleven people in their fifties are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Thirteen people in their sixties are in hospital, with 11 in ICU.
• Twenty-two people in their seventies are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Forty-five people in their eighties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• There are 23 people aged 90 and older in hospital.

Good evidence that lots of younger people affected.

 

[Gremlin]

WA 100% needs the eastern states, they just don't know it. Look at all the produce that is shipped every hour of every day across there to keep them quite literally alive. Anyway it doesn't matter, I'm sick to death of hearing about these state v state snipes and running tally boards, commentary. Politicians, media -just want to make me throw up

Apart from the odd bogan, I don't think anyone genuinely thinks that "we don't need the other states".

One of the challenges is that there is a significant economic cost to both the nation and local economies if they import Victoria's contagion. Treasury analysis released yesterday showed that the second lockdown in Melbourne will cost the Australian economy 0.75% GDP, it will slow the national economic recovery by three months and slow Victoria's economic recovery by six months. Those figures are based on the following assumptions:

• The lockdown will contain the virus in Victoria in six weeks;
• The lockdown in Victoria can be unwound after six weeks;
• The contagion can be controlled within NSW without further restrictions;
• The contagion does not spread to other states who will continue on their own timetable to economic recovery.

I look at each of those assumptions and feel like they are each best case scenarios.

To put in context, the cost of this phase of lock down for just Melbourne is roughly twice the cost of losing the entire tourism industry nationwide. Nationally we simply can't afford the economic consequences of other states having to do what Melbourne is now doing. If it's Sydney then it's probably a further 1% of GDP and another four months before our economy starts to grow again. If it's Brisbane, then probably 0.5% of GDP and two and a half months more. Maybe 0.4% and two months each for Perth and Adelaide. They all go down and as a nation we are facing a Depression rather than just a recession. So I may be a Queenslander, but it's in my best interests to see WA and SA do all they can to avoid importing infection. There's no doubt that comes at a cost. But if we all end up like Melbourne then the alternative is a lot, lot worse.

 

[p--and--t]

Well blackcat20 reported here the other day or so that TV waited five work days to get his results. So thats a week in iso and then a negative result. Does that help?

Yes I saw that, and that is very disappointing and will not help the cause to reduce cross infection when we have it seems many people less diligent and responsible than BC and TV and many other AFFers.

But as to what percentage of people have that experience, the jury is out for me, because there are many other reports of a vastly different experience.

Hopefully Vic Health is gathering statistics on the various labs and their turnarounds to rectify the delays.

YMMV

 

[blackcat20]

Breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19

• The most recent breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19 shows there a child aged under nine is receiving care.
• The figures from Tuesday, show there were three people aged 10-19 in hospital
• Two people in their twenties in ICU.
• Seven people in their thirties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU.
• Eleven people in their fifties are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Thirteen people in their sixties are in hospital, with 11 in ICU.
• Twenty-two people in their seventies are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Forty-five people in their eighties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• There are 23 people aged 90 and older in hospital.

Good evidence that lots of younger people affected.

The comment I heard this morning was that 50% of those in ICU are under 50.

 

[p--and--t]

The comment I heard this morning was that 50% of those in ICU are under 50.

Yet so many young people seem to think it won't effect them because its "only the oldies that are dying".

I've wondered a couple times whether anyone is adding up the lifetime health costs to the future economy of these younger people who don't die but develop long term impairments to their health resulting from a covid infection.

 

[jakeseven7]

To put in context, the cost of this phase of lock down for just Melbourne is roughly twice the cost of losing the entire tourism industry nationwide. Nationally we simply can't afford the economic consequences of other states having to do what Melbourne is now doing.

Agreed and we won't be because when it spreads across NSW and probably SE QLD too there will be some very interesting discussions about just opening and operating with the virus present, like Europe, like the UK - because the economic cost of a depression style reality won't be tolerated.

We are just 6 months behind most of the world in this discussion - thankfully/not thankfully I'm not so sure now!? - Given the end outcome will be the same!

 

[Pushka]

Yes I saw that, and that is very disappointing and will not help the cause to reduce cross infection when we have it seems many people less diligent and responsible than BC and TV and many other AFFers.

But as to what percentage of people have that experience, the jury is out for me, because there are many other reports of a vastly different experience.

Hopefully Vic Health is gathering statistics on the various labs and their turnarounds to rectify the delays.

YMMV

Well, if we know of just one true case, then likely there are many others, as there is no reason to expect that TV was an outlier. And we all know it doesnt many to create havoc with this virus.

 

[blackcat20]

Well, if we know of just one true case, then likely there are many others, as there is no reason to expect that TV was an outlier. And we all know it doesnt many to create havoc with this virus.

Carrie Bickmore on the Project reported that her family also waited 5 days for results, so its no uncommon.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well, if we know of just one true case, then likely there are many others, as there is no reason to expect that TV was an outlier. And we all know it doesnt many to create havoc with this virus.

Totally agree, I just think its really time we stopped working towards 'best case' assumptions.

There are always going to be people, always that break rules - intentionally or not. And unfortunately with this virus it just takes one slip, by one person, at the right (wrong?!) time and bang its away and you are done. And there are always going to be failures in systems too, always.

This was always going to happen, in some way, shape or form. No system at this scale of population is perfect. It is literally impossible.

I just can't wait until people are ready to have this conversation.

I recall on Q&A months ago when this first started, a very intelligent spokesperson - a lady, think she was some sort of behavioral economist or something fancy, tried to get this across (perhaps a little bluntly!) and was screamed down by everyone for it. But exactly what she has said has happened and looking back, she was just being practical and talking common sense.

 

[Lynda2475]

The comment I heard this morning was that 50% of those in ICU are under 50.

I heard 20% of those in ICU are under 50 - which is also what ABC is reporting.

 

[dajop]

Breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19

• The most recent breakdown of Victorians in hospital with COVID-19 shows there a child aged under nine is receiving care.
• The figures from Tuesday, show there were three people aged 10-19 in hospital
• Two people in their twenties in ICU.
• Seven people in their thirties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU.
• Eleven people in their fifties are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Thirteen people in their sixties are in hospital, with 11 in ICU.
• Twenty-two people in their seventies are in hospital, with seven in ICU.
• Forty-five people in their eighties are in hospital, with two in ICU.
• There are 23 people aged 90 and older in hospital.

Good evidence that lots of younger people affected.

When saying "Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU", does this mean as I think it does out of 11 patients in hospital, 5 (45%) are in ICU, or out of 16 patients in hospital, 5 (31%) are in ICU?