Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

Sometimes there is an element of truth in humour.The Bee again.

Study Finds Most People Just Wearing Masks To Avoid Sea Of Judgmental Glares

U.S.—A new study found that the primary reason people are wearing masks in public now is not to stop COVID-19 but rather to avoid the sea of judgmental stares.

babylonbee.com

 

[dajop]

Sometimes there is an element of truth in humour.The Bee again.

Study Finds Most People Just Wearing Masks To Avoid Sea Of Judgmental Glares

U.S.—A new study found that the primary reason people are wearing masks in public now is not to stop COVID-19 but rather to avoid the sea of judgmental stares.

babylonbee.com

Which is exactly what Behavioural Scientists/Behavioural Economists would tell you. People don't adopt certain behaviours based on risk, they are far more likely to do so based on social norms. Fiction can be very close to the truth!

 

[jakeseven7]

I heard 20% of those in ICU are under 50 - which is also what ABC is reporting.

The comment I heard this morning was that 50% of those in ICU are under 50.

When saying "Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU", does this mean as I think it does out of 11 patients in hospital, 5 (45%) are in ICU, or out of 16 patients in hospital, 5 (31%) are in ICU?

Doesn't matter anyway Team statistics!

The AU hospital population right now is far too small and not representative enough to draw any conclusions whatsoever apart from the fact 'it is possible for people of all ages to get this virus and require hospital intervention'.

 

[Pushka]

I just can't wait until people are ready to have this conversation.

Likely come late September when employers decide its just getting too hard to keep up with the jobkeeper changes, and decide to just pack it up and start again later.

 

[jakeseven7]

Likely come late September when employers decide its just getting too hard to keep up with the jobkeeper changes, and decide to just pack it up and start again later.

You are probably right, the leaders need to warm the general population up to it slowly, frog boiling water style and the reason we are so far behind in this thinking and planning is that we never until now truly had a 'first wave' or whatever people want to call it.

I just pray some smart cookies somewhere hidden from sight are mapping it out in advance...

 

[Pushka]

You are probably right, the leaders need to warm the general population up to it slowly, frog boiling water style and the reason we are so far behind in this thinking and planning is that we never until now truly had a 'first wave' or whatever people want to call it.

I just pray some smart cookies somewhere hidden from sight are mapping it out in advance...

I reckon they just might be. I think the "putting it out there" and mapping for a Jan 1 overseas travel as part of the economic plan moving forward was the lighting of the flame.

 

[Lynda2475]

When saying "Eleven people in their forties are in hospital, with five in ICU", does this mean as I think it does out of 11 patients in hospital, 5 (45%) are in ICU, or out of 16 patients in hospital, 5 (31%) are in ICU?

I've always understood it as 11 people aged in their 40's in hospital in total, of which 5 are in ICU (so the other 6 must just be in the general covid ward).

 

[Lynda2475]

apart from the fact 'it is possible for people of all ages to get this virus and require hospital intervention'.

Which is all I concluded.

I quite like stats, and while Vic's numbers aren't huge on a world scale they give real insight as to what might be heading NSW's way given all community cases in NSW in last fortnight have been linked to the Vic outbreak via genomic testing.

In the first 14 days since Melbourne lockdown began on 9th July - there were 3797 cases of which 205 required hospitalisation (5% of total cases), 45 of those in ICU (1% total cases) and 22 death (0.5% of total cases).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's Vic DHHS Report:

Media release
23 July 2020

Victoria has recorded 403 new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 7125.
The overall total has increased by 386 due to cases being reclassified – largely due to duplication.
Within Victoria, 69 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 334 are under investigation.

There have been five new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday. They were a man in his 50s and a man in his 70s that were not linked to known outbreaks. A woman in her 70s, a man in his 80s and a man in his 90s have also died and are linked to known outbreaks in aged care facilities. To date, 49 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

In Victoria at the current time:

• 1154 cases may indicate community transmission
• 3630 cases are currently active in Victoria
• 201 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 40 in intensive care
• 3298 people have recovered from the virus
• Of the total cases, 6558 cases are from metropolitan Melbourne, while 398 are from regional Victoria
• Total cases include 3607 men and 3442 women
• More than 1,413,100 tests have been processed
• Total number of healthcare workers: 529, active cases: 239
• There are currently 447 cases linked to 35 aged care sites that have active cases

Cases currently linked to public housing in North Melbourne, Flemington and Carlton are as follows:

• 293 cases are residents of various public housing towers in North Melbourne and Flemington. Investigations are continuing into how these cases are linked.
• 60 cases are residents of various public housing towers in Carlton. Investigations are continuing into if and/or how these cases are linked.

Cases currently linked to key outbreaks are as follows:

• 182 cases have been linked to Al-Taqwa College
• 73 cases have been linked to St Basil’s Homes for the Aged in Fawkner
• 67 cases have been linked to Estia Health in Ardeer
• 55 cases have been linked to Menarock Life Aged care in Essendon
• 34 cases have been linked to Estia Health in Heidelberg
• 33 cases have been linked to Arcare Aged Care in Craigieburn
• 21 cases have been linked to Baptcare Wyndham Lodge in Werribee
• 20 cases have been linked to Embracia Aged Care Moonee Valley in Avondale Heights
• 72 cases have been linked to Somerville Retail Services in Tottenham
• 58 cases have been linked to JBS in Brooklyn
• 29 cases have been linked to Australian Lamb Company in Colac
• 21 cases have been linked to Clever Kids Childcare in Ashburton
• 10 cases have been linked to Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victorian LGA new cases in non restricted LGA's today. So very little spread still.

Greater Geelong 6
Ballarat 2
Macedon Ranges 1
Surf Coast 2
Mooroobool 1
Wangaratta 1
Corongamite 1

Cases by LGA - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

 

[Pushka]

One case in Adelaide. An essential services worker recently returned from Victoria. Negative on Day 2 but positive on day 12 when he lost taste and felt unwell. Had been in iso at family home with wife and daughter and daughters boyfriend who visited. They werent isolating but are now and man has been taken to a quarantine hotel.

 

[Gremlin]

Agreed and we won't be because when it spreads across NSW and probably SE QLD too there will be some very interesting discussions about just opening and operating with the virus present, like Europe, like the UK - because the economic cost of a depression style reality won't be tolerated.

We are just 6 months behind most of the world in this discussion - thankfully/not thankfully I'm not so sure now!? - Given the end outcome will be the same!

Our economic outcomes at this stage are still forecast to be better than Europe and the UK. OECD is forecasting depression in the UK. The EU is forecast to to only just avoid depression levels of economic decline if they can avoid a second wave, whilst a second wave would push them into depression.

I'm still optimistic enough that Australia can keep the spread contained sufficiently to avoid this. No need to be advocating it as a preferred option.

 

[Lynda2475]

Had been in iso at family home with wife and daughter and daughters boyfriend who visited.

I thought if you were in home isolation you were meant to separate from family i.e. stay in a different room and use a separate bathroom. Surprised visitors are allowed to attend a house where someone is self isolating, and that the other residents of the house weren't asked to isolate as well.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Only 1 trip as I did one of my few grocery runs to two stores today, but 100% of everyone I saw was wearing a mask.

From those just out for an exercise walk, to anyone in or near the two stores, including various tradies at work.

I suspect now that everyone has to wear them, rather than it just being optional, will make easier for some wear them as they will not stand out.

 

[RooFlyer]

Penrith Panthers match at Kogarah Oval in NSW on July 11.

The official crowd attendance at the game was 3277, while 4000 people have registered their interest in attending the BLM rally.

Sorry, need to ask: are you equating the two events or saying "well rugby can get 3000-odd, so BLM is OK with a similar number"? Or BLM is really popular?

In any event, Rugby is managed by a national organisation, with Directors and other recognised and 'responsible' persons. To be held in a large stadium with provision for social distancing, and the officers held responsible for any breaches (including under various federal legislations / Corps Law).

BLM organised ad-hoc (with many hangers-on/peripheral protesters), on its immediate past history with very poor social distancing and against health professional advice. Unquestioned disease-vulnerable community at the core of the march. One of the march organisers on record as saying he's prepared to catch the virus for his cause. Hooray for him; what about others?

The march is just a demo. They could hold it on Zoom.

Full marks to Tanya Plibersek for her stand on this. You won't hear me saying that very often!

 

[Lynda2475]

Queensland declared a new NSW hot spot today namely Fairfield LGA which isn't at all surprising given the Thai Rock restaurant in Wetherill Park is in that LGA. Just thankful they haven't declared all of Sydney a hot spot, I need the border to stay open for 13 days so I can get to FNQ.

 

[jakeseven7]

Queensland declared a new NSW hot spot today namely Fairfield LGA which isn't at all surprising given the Thai Rock restaurant in Wetherill Park is in that LGA. Just thankful they haven't declared all of Sydney a hot spot, I need the border to stay open for 13 days so I can get to FNQ.

Best of luck but gurantee Anna has already written the press release banning all of Sydney, just waiting for a few more cases and spread....

 

[Pushka]

I thought if you were in home isolation you were meant to separate from family i.e. stay in a different room and use a separate bathroom. Surprised visitors are allowed to attend a house where someone is self isolating, and that the other residents of the house weren't asked to isolate as well.

That is the intent to be living separately but not possible in many instances. And others arent required to isolate. I know as I checked when MrP was travelling to Melbourne in April.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That is the intent to be living separately but not possible in many instances. And others arent required to isolate. I know as I checked when MrP was travelling to Melbourne in April.

It may vary depending if one is an occasional essential worker or is say a freight driver.

SA

All essential freight workers who are residents of Victoria must wear a face mask when entering South Australia and self-quarantine in their truck or other private arrangements when not undertaking work-related duties. This is not a requirement for essential freight workers who are not Victorian residents.

If one was an interstate freight driver then if you had to isolate for 14 days after every interstate trip, you would not have any truck drivers willing to go interstate, as they would in effect always be in isolation. No one would want to live that way.


PS> I note the current case flew.
Dr Spurrier said the man had not been infectious at the time that he was on the flight over to Adelaide.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Which is all I concluded.

I quite like stats, and while Vic's numbers aren't huge on a world scale they give real insight as to what might be heading NSW's way given all community cases in NSW in last fortnight have been linked to the Vic outbreak via genomic testing.

In the first 14 days since Melbourne lockdown began on 9th July - there were 3797 cases of which 205 required hospitalisation (5% of total cases), 45 of those in ICU (1% total cases) and 22 death (0.5% of total cases).

Unfortunately as deaths tend to lag cases the actual mortality rate % will probably higher, and moreso as cases have been more numerous in the last week, and also in the last week is whencases have really started to build in aged care patients where outcomes of cases tend to be dramatically worse.