Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

When there were 700 cases in a day and this was a time of significant nursing home infections then this figure was always going to happen and likely very many more to come. Sad times.

Unfortunately there are still 1225 active cases in aged care (not all will be residents), and probably about 400 odd in hospital. However some of those in hospital are there because of some age care facilities having to be closed, and so not all will be serious (unknown what the % would be).

What % of the 1225 are elderly and in poor health is unknown, but if you look at the deaths per day in aged care, and the known lag with fatalities on new infections, deaths are likely for a while yet,

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW don't even have that.....

Yes, but Vic is probably in its last lockdown (one would hope), so might as well shoot for the stars. Better to try for a clean slate then settle for second best. Vic also has a backlog of unknown source community transmission, NSW is 30 (about 14 in the last 15 days).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Graphs of CV19 deaths in Vic. (Though note that today is actually 19 and not 41, and presumably the 22 would be spread over various days from late July till 26 Aug)

Last 14 days:



Since the pandemic started:

Charting the COVID-19 spread: Australia passes 10,000 coronavirus deaths

Australia has officially recorded more than 10,000 COVID deaths in total, with 4,000 of those recorded in Victoria. Here's what the latest data shows.

www.abc.net.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW community transmission since before Crossroads:

- Total 28
- 7 in the last 7 days
- 5 in the period 8-14 days
- 4 in the period 15-28 days
- 12 in the period more than 28 days

 

[dajop]

It might make for more pleasant experiences here if people (like me) who are very confused about the strangeness of daily data that seems to be updated randomly, are not berated by others for their confusion.

The best thing to do, is not to get hung up on daily data. The infection of people and the manifestation of the disease in terms of illness and mortality does not happen discretely in units of a day, and is highly variable depending on the individual infected (and it seems the strain).

Whilst one individual infected on 30 July might display symptoms on 1 August and get tested straight away, another might not until 10 August. Two gravely ill patients infected on the same day, might recover, weeks apart, or might die weeks apart. Probably the best the to look at is 7 day rolling averages, and expect mortality, average number of deaths in a day, to lag infections by several weeks. This also accounts, somewhat, for delayed reporting, like we are seeing with lives lost to the disease today.

 

[p--and--t]

On the Vic deaths total of 41 today, and the 22 included for past deaths. The deaths go back to late July.

It sounds like it is due to reviewing the cause of death, and which had a CV19 link.

Deaths in age care occur of course even without CV19.

I had an acquaintance that worked in private aged care. Part of his job was to clean out rooms of deceased persons at the home.

He told me it varied but he averaged around two a week. Was a "priority" job, "can't have empty rooms not earning money".

 

[p--and--t]

Unfortunately there are still 1225 active cases in aged care (not all will be residents), and probably about 400 odd in hospital. However some of those in hospital are there because of some age care facilities having to be closed, and so not all will be serious (unknown what the % would be).

What % of the 1225 are elderly and in poor health is unknow, but if you look at the deaths per day in aged care, and the know lag with fatalities on new infections, deaths are likely for a while yet,

...and remember if at some point they had covid, regardless of the cause of death in Victoria they will be counted as covid deaths.(Statement by CMO in a press conference)

 

[drron]

...and remember if at some point they had covid, regardless of the cause of death in Victoria they will be counted as covid deaths.(Statement by CMO in a press conference)

I believe it is the same Australia wide.The QLD CHO has certainly said the same thing.

 

[RooFlyer]

If you read what had been posted before your post you would know that today's total is actually 19.

If you read what I posted, you'll see that it was a comment directly on the posts I quoted, not on anything posted before. OK? I'm quite capable of reading and understanding what went before, if I chose to do so (even those not bolded).

And frankly I think quibbling over the number of deaths in a day is distasteful. They are all shocking and awful.

 

[dajop]

Deaths in age care occur of course even without CV19.

At some point in the future, someone will do an analysis of the deaths in aged care facilities that did not have COVID infections, and that might give a fair representation of how much COVID accelerated the loss of life in aged homes, although the enhanced protocols at non-COVID infected homes might might go some way to reducing the number of lives lost from other illnesses during the same period.

Of course, there's an expectation that at some point after someone enters an aged care facility they will pass. It's sad for their relatives and friends, but it's a fact of life. But what is especially sad about COVID is the inability of family to spend time with their aged relatives in their final days. .

 

[lovetravellingoz]

If you read what I posted, you'll see that it was a comment directly on the posts I quoted, not on anything posted before. OK? I'm quite capable of reading and understanding what went before, if I chose to do so (even those not bolded).

I did read what you posted and it was misleading as you implied that I was suggesting 40-odd deaths / day for a while and you did not post all of what I posted and only included half of my post and left out the next line which had the totals in it including an explanation of what was today's numbers and what was an update of past deaths .

Yes I think we all know this.

At least the 41 today is not a single day surge. But is 19 today with 22 from before 27 Aug.

That we will continue to see numbers like 40-odd deaths / day for a while? I certainly didn’t know that!! Please don’t assume for the rest of us what we do and don’t know. I am shocked and surprised by today’s fatality number.

As you were directly commenting on my post (which was myself agreeing with Jase, who commented on my earlier post where the daily total was 19, that we would continue to see deaths for a while) I clarified that I was not suggesting as you wrote That we will continue to see numbers like 40-odd deaths / day for a while?

 

[moa999]

At some point in the future, someone will do an analysis of the deaths in aged care facilities that did not have COVID infections, and that might give a fair representation of how much COVID accelerated the loss of life in aged homes,

But equally other Covid measures have reduced the number of flu deaths.

The statement of the Covid deaths is also being used by the Conspiraists to claim that Covid is overblown and they are faking deaths in order to control us.

As I understand (and hopefully a Medico might weigh in) it's because no-one dies of Covid - you die from pneumonia, liver failure, heart attack etc, which for reporting purpose is then included as a Covid death (no different to how it is for the flu during typical flu seasons).

If you're released from hospital after recovering and then get hit by an ambulance and killed instantly I doubt you will contribute to the Covid stats.

 

[Pushka]

I had an acquaintance that worked in private aged care. Part of his job was to clean out rooms of deceased persons at the home.

He told me it varied but he averaged around two a week. Was a "priority" job, "can't have empty rooms not earning money".

When Mum died we had to have everything removed within 24 hours.

 

[p--and--t]

If you're released from hospital after recovering and then get hit by an ambulance and killed instantly I doubt you will contribute to the Covid stats.

Nursing home residents are unlikely to be out and about in traffic accidents following recovery from covid and will continue to suffer from whatever was ailing them from before they were infected.

The CMO has stated publicly any subsequent death will be counted as covid deaths (no boundary to that decision was stated, but I presume it will not be forever but possibly for the duration of the pandemic) . That is not a conspiracy theory

 

[lovetravellingoz]

When Mum died we had to have everything removed within 24 hours.

Where my MIL is there is certainly a quick turn around. Probably often only days, and certainly less than a week.

We had looked for a while for a good facility for my MIL (she had had colon cancer a while back and has various health issues with both that and her feet that made a facility with good nursing care a priority) and were on a waiting list. When a vacancy arose we were advised that if we wanted it that MIL had to move in within 7 days.

 

[blackcat20]

I think a lot of people are/were shocked at the headline number of deaths today, but it's helpful to see the actual number for the last 24 hours and understand that 41 includes people who died up to a month or so ago. So the day to day variation isnt quite so scarily large.

 

[RooFlyer]

If you read what had been posted before your post you would know that today's total is actually 19.

I read what I posted on and quoted. OK? It’s getting irksome to have keep pointing this out. If you don’t accept my ability to do that, I’m sorry.

And my comment was more towards that you badly stated that you thought that we all knew what jase05 had just posted ( which I included included in my post for context). I commented that this wasn’t the case. But again, that wasn’t accepted without some correction by yourself. Sorry, but we differ.

 

[serfty]

If you read what had been posted before your post you would know that today's total is actually 19.

I reckon you are being extremely unfair with that post. Given your post to include the differentiation only just before the comment from @RooFlyer was made, it is almost certain they had not seen it before completing their post.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I reckon you are being extremely unfair with that post. Given your post to include the differentiation only just before the comment from @RooFlyer was made, it is almost certain they had not seen it before completing their post.

I don't follow, the information was actually in the the post of mine that he directly replied to, but which he edited out and so in replying he must have seen that 19 was the actual number of deaths today and not 41.


Can you explain precisely why it is unfair, let alone being extremely unfair?

The actual post of mine that Rooflyer states that he was replying to was:

Yes I think we all know this.

At least the 41 today is not a single day surge. But is 19 today with 22 from before 27 Aug.

It was only his editing that left out the salient data and reduced it to:

Yes I think we all know this.

So quite clearly the post that he was replying to replied to stated 19.

Because he cut out that second sentence and wrote what he did the inference was that I was predicting cases would stay in the 40's.

As I had not said, or predicted, that I also referenced back to the series of posts that he commented on so that he could see the full context.

I thought this would clarify it for him. All of mine include 22 not being part of the deaths today.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The bolding of the 41 deaths is the main thing that stands out in that post. The qualifier in terms of delayed notification is posted as an edit and I missed it too.

There is no such bolding. This is the actual post which Rooflyer has stated that he was directly replying to.

Yes I think we all know this.

At least the 41 today is not a single day surge. But is 19 today with 22 from before 27 Aug.