Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Its sad that things have reached this point:

Victorian doctors pen desperate letter to Dan Andrews about controversial State of Emergency Bill (The Oz, paywalled ... google the headline if you'd like the whole article)

From my understanding the SOE provides the legislative underpinning of the whole Health Directives. So without extending it, on Sep 14 then it’s back to normal - no masks, restaurants/pubs etc fully reopen with no caps and no need to track whose attending, workforces operating at full capacity, all back to normal. Meanwhile cases would go up, Victoria would really be the pariah and interstate borders would remain closed for years (but other state premiers just blame Dan for being too lax). The guy can’t win.

There is so much fake news out there - a number of comments I’ve heard suggesting that Dan wants to extend the current stage 4 restrictions for 12 months - which is not true - it’s just the underpinning framework. The other premiers can extend their CHO’s powers without going back to parliament, but they’re not criticised!

Also these arguments saying it’s only 500 deaths so controls are not needed, but look at New York state - at that death rate (per head of population) Victoria might have had 11,000 deaths over 6 months without introducing some sort of controls. Sure it’s probably time to start opening things up, but there needs to be balance.

Do we say the road toll is only 266, that’s insignificant compared to the 11,000 that die from heart disease, let’s get rid of speed limits, seatbelts and blood alcohol limits, people will do the right thing?

Dan is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!

 

[jb747]

Good point. After reflection I am sure Dear Leader will close the DPRT permanently.

As long as we can stop sending them money, I doubt that many would object at all....

 

[Must...Fly!]

From my understanding the SOE provides the legislative underpinning of the whole Health Directives. So without extending it, on Sep 14 then it’s back to normal - no masks, restaurants/pubs etc fully reopen with no caps and no need to track whose attending, workforces operating at full capacity, all back to normal. Meanwhile cases would go up, Victoria would really be the pariah and interstate borders would remain closed for years (but other state premiers just blame Dan for being too lax). The guy can’t win.

There is so much fake news out there - a number of comments I’ve heard suggesting that Dan wants to extend the current stage 4 restrictions for 12 months - which is not true - it’s just the underpinning framework. The other premiers can extend their CHO’s powers without going back to parliament, but they’re not criticised!

Also these arguments saying it’s only 500 deaths so controls are not needed, but look at New York state - at that death rate (per head of population) Victoria might have had 11,000 deaths over 6 months without introducing some sort of controls. Sure it’s probably time to start opening things up, but there needs to be balance.

Do we say the road toll is only 266, that’s insignificant compared to the 11,000 that die from heart disease, let’s get rid of speed limits, seatbelts and blood alcohol limits, people will do the right thing?

Dan is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!

SOE provides police legislative powers of enforcement of some health directives, not the directives themselves.

I don't think I've seen a single person claiming that Stage 4 would continue for 12 months, but allowing extensions of such magnitude completely removes oversight of government which should be of a concern to all. This morning The Age reports that the greens and ALP came to an agreement for passage of future (unknown) legislation in return for greens support in the upper house for six month extension to the SOE.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While the new cases today in Vic is up slightly at 90, the 7 day average trend is still down, and it is also the third day in a row of new cases per day under 100.

Purely my speculation, but with the "roadmap out" to be announced this Sunday I would imagine that new cases per day by Sunday would need to be at about 50 or less (ie maintaining the downward trend) if substantial easing of restrictions is to start on 13 Sept. Otherwise a slower pace is more likely.







And new cases per day for the last 14 days in Vic.

 

[TomVexille]

SOE provides police legislative powers of enforcement of some health directives, not the directives themselves.

I don't think I've seen a single person claiming that Stage 4 would continue for 12 months, but allowing extensions of such magnitude completely removes oversight of government which should be of a concern to all. This morning The Age reports that the greens and ALP came to an agreement for passage of future (unknown) legislation in return for greens support in the upper house for six month extension to the SOE.

The misinformation machines that are social media most definitely had many people claiming that Stage 4 would be extended for 12 months if Dan got his extension that no other Premier has to ask for.

 

[Pushka]

The misinformation machines that are social media most definitely had many people claiming that Stage 4 would be extended for 12 months if Dan got his extension that no other Premier has to ask for.

I think that at the get-go, the message was poorly communicated. Instead of prefacing it, (maybe they did but as you say it got lost in the media machine,) by stating that restrictions would be eased as soon as trends improved yada yada, it seemed to come out of the blue, ie another 12 months emergency control. And it didnt go on to explain that simply meant that measures may need to be implemented quickly again if another large outbreak appeared.

 

[TomVexille]

I think that at the get-go, the message was poorly communicated. Instead of prefacing it, (maybe they did but as you say it got lost in the media machine,) by stating that restrictions would be eased as soon as trends improved yada yada, it seemed to come out of the blue, ie another 12 months emergency control. And it didnt go on to explain that simply meant that measures may need to be implemented quickly again if another large outbreak appeared.

Absolutely. But as @dajop correctly pointed out, without an extension, all COVID measures would have become unenforceable overnight.

 

[Pushka]

Absolutely. But as @dajop correctly pointed out, without an extension, all COVID measures would have become unenforceable overnight.

Sure. That was exactly the message that needed to go out. Had the announcement had been along those lines then not a ripple. Instead it was the 12 month emergency control message that was heard.

 

[dajop]

Sure. That was exactly the message that needed to go out. Had the announcement had been along those lines then not a ripple. Instead it was the 12 month emergency control message that was heard.

Whatever the message it would have been portrayed as a power grab by Uncle Rupert and his people (ironic?). Its interesting how it’s being positioned in different parts of the media. It’s easy to tell who’s out for Dan’s head on a platter by the reporting on the topic.

 

[Pushka]

Whatever the message it would have been portrayed as a power grab by Uncle Rupert and his people (ironic?). Its interesting how it’s being positioned in different parts of the media. It’s easy to tell who’s out for Dan’s head on a platter by the reporting on the topic.

I reckon that’s the same whatever political party is at the helm in each state right now. There’s no headlines to be had in agreeing with the governments, state or Fed.

 

[p--and--t]

Sure. That was exactly the message that needed to go out. Had the announcement had been along those lines then not a ripple. Instead it was the 12 month emergency control message that was heard.

Do you seriously believe certain media, political operatives and conspiracy theory protagonists would not have twisted the message to the most attractive click bait they could regardless of anything that was actually stated?

 

[Pushka]

Do you seriously believe certain media, policital operatives and conspiracy theory protagonists would not have twisted the message to the most attractive click bait they could regardless of anything that was actually stated?

No. It’s the same as flicking between Fox and CNN where Trump is concerned. I really don’t like media, any of it, these days. I get my news from AFF . Coz I also hate Twitface.

 

[RAM]

You have to go to five jurisdictions. It isn’t like NZ where you can find it in one place.

lovetravellingoz beat me to posting NSW recent flight list link

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/flights.aspx

edit to add WA flights link

Locations visited by confirmed cases

The Department of Health is actively contact tracing all confirmed cases to identify close contacts. Known contacts will be contacted.

healthywa.wa.gov.au

Given the international border is a Federal responsibility then surely it would make sense for the Federal Govt to compile the figures?

Perhaps I just answered my own question .

I can but hope...

Short & informative. Go to the web site & it supplies age ranges (eg: Male 40-49). So if you were on the flight (say) and sat 15 rows away but you may have been talking with someone fitting that description while waiting to use the toilet at the lounge or on the plane....

Returning Kiwis account for bulk of new cases

All people returning to New Zealand are tested on day three and then again on day 12.

www.smh.com.au

New Zealand has detected 14 new cases of coronavirus, comprising nine in returned travellers and five in the community.

Seven of the traveller cases are people returning from India, some via Fiji; one came from Qatar and one from the United States. They are in managed quarantine facilities in Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington.

 

[RAM]

No. It’s the same as flicking between Fox and CNN where Trump is concerned. I really don’t like media, any of it, these days. I get my news from AFF . Coz I also hate Twitface.

Whatever you do - DO NOT go to NPR. They make Fox, CNN, ABC, CBC etc look like choir boys these days.

 

[RooFlyer]

From my understanding the SOE provides the legislative underpinning of the whole Health Directives. So without extending it, on Sep 14 then it’s back to normal - no masks, restaurants/pubs etc fully reopen with no caps and no need to track whose attending, workforces operating at full capacity, all back to normal. Meanwhile cases would go up, Victoria would really be the pariah and interstate borders would remain closed for years (but other state premiers just blame Dan for being too lax). The guy can’t win.

Absolutely. But as @dajop correctly pointed out, without an extension, all COVID measures would have become unenforceable overnight.

I think you have both missed the point. It wasn't the extension of the SoE or its enablement per se, it was that it was being sought for 12 months. Even in a pandemic, there needs to be parliamentary oversight of the executive, especially when it seeks SoE type powers - which go well beyond health management. As I mentioned, once governments get a taste for the 'freedom' they have under SoE powers, they find it hard to give up. As it seems it will pan out, they'll get the powers for 6 months and then they can apply for another extension - it they can justify to Parliament. I don't think that's a bad thing.

Whatever the message it would have been portrayed as a power grab by Uncle Rupert and his people (ironic?). Its interesting how it’s being positioned in different parts of the media. It’s easy to tell who’s out for Dan’s head on a platter by the reporting on the topic.

Well, it could be viewed as who's looking after the public's interest by holding the Victorian Government to account? Presumably some parts of the media are happy to ignore the story and would be happy for a blanket year's State of Emergency easy enablement. But you might like to consider that when the Greens and News Corp are on the same side, there might be some broad merit in it (denying the 12 months period).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Just a point of clarification on the State of Emergency Extension as there seems to be some confusion.

• Vic was reaching the 6 month cap for extensions (ie the 4 week ones). Without amending the Act Vic would have no power to enforce many of the required public health measures.
• Without amending the Act Victoria would have been in an untenable position. What is a more valid discussion is how long that Act should be able to extend the rolling state of emergency for. In the end the 6 month period that Vic had been operating under has been adopted again rather than the 12 months that the Vic Gov had sought. So in effect the status quo has been maintained.

You can read more here in this article that was published on 25 Aug:

Explainer: why is the Victorian government extending the state of emergency, and is it justified?

An extension of Victoria’s state of emergency may well be justified – but there is no call for that to be for 12 months without returning to parliament to argue the case.

theconversation.com

The Victorian government has announced its intention to amend the Public Health and Wellbeing Act to give it the power to extend Victoria’s state of emergency for up to another 12 months. The need for an extension is self-evident. The length and nature of the extension is not.

Victoria’s state of emergency was first declared on March 16 2020. Since then, it has been extended every four weeks.

The last of these extensions is due to expire on September 13 2020, at the end of the stage 4 restrictions to deal with the latest COVID-19 outbreak. That will take the total period of the state of emergency to six months – the maximum allowed under the law.

......

Extending the maximum period for which a state of emergency can be declared by 12 months does not mean Victoria will remain in lockdown for another 12 months. The two should not be conflated. The government would still have to declare a continuation of the state of emergency every four weeks.

 

[TomVexille]

I think you have both missed the point. It wasn't the extension of the SoE or its enablement per se, it was that it was being sought for 12 months. Even in a pandemic, there needs to be parliamentary oversight of the executive, especially when it seeks SoE type powers - which go well beyond health management. As I mentioned, once governments get a taste for the 'freedom' they have under SoE powers, they find it hard to give up. As it seems it will pan out, they'll get the powers for 6 months and then they can apply for another extension - it they can justify to Parliament. I don't think that's a bad thing.



Well, it could be viewed as who's looking after the public's interest by holding the Victorian Government to account? Presumably some parts of the media are happy to ignore the story and would be happy for a blanket year's State of Emergency easy enablement. But you might like to consider that when the Greens and News Corp are on the same side, there might be some broad merit in it (denying the 12 months period).

I don't think that I have at all. I think we're unlikely to have a safe, effective mass produced vaccine within the next 12 months so we're likely to still have some measures in place. I reckon Dan will be okay with a 6 month extension, if he had asked for 6 months he probably would have only gotten 3.

Given the way the media incorrectly reported the extension request here was that we would automatically stay in a SoE for a further 12 months is really bad, as people then form an incorrect opinion and spout it as the truth all over twitface.

Can I ask if you would prefer to be in the DPRT with no oversight on their SoE or the only state that has said oversight?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Chelsea Hetherington
@chelsea_hetho
#BREAKING: NSW has recorded 17 new cases of COVID-19 from 20,083 tests
. - 8 linked to the CBD cluster (total 49)
- 6 linked to St Paul’s College Greystanes
- 1 linked to Liverpool Hospital
- 1 locally acquired, no known source
- 1 hotel quarantine @abcnews @COVID_Australia
11:16 AM · Sep 2, 2020

So 16 new community cases.

 

[dajop]

I think you have both missed the point. It wasn't the extension of the SoE or its enablement per se, it was that it was being sought for 12 months. Even in a pandemic, there needs to be parliamentary oversight of the executive, especially when it seeks SoE type powers - which go well beyond health management. As I mentioned, once governments get a taste for the 'freedom' they have under SoE powers, they find it hard to give up. As it seems it will pan out, they'll get the powers for 6 months and then they can apply for another extension - it they can justify to Parliament. I don't think that's a bad thing.

Maybe I'm reading to much into negotiation tactics, but I took the 12 months as a way of achieving the 6 months, which it looks like achieving. Had he suggested 6 months he might have achieved 3, had he suggested 3 he might have achieved 1

Accountability is not a bad thing, as long as it's not unwieldy and inefficient. But the powers to enforce public health directions in other states don't seem to be under quite the same scrutiny as "Chairman's Dan's", because IIRC (and I could be misunderstanding this), unlike in Victoria they don't need to go back to parliament to extend. (But I might have just read that in a left wing media outlet, so I could be wrong, but don't have the time, nor inclination, to do the research myself.)

On the media holding governments to account, yes, some in the media do have an interest in holding the government to account (in fact on this specific topic, I actually found ABC most reasonable) , others seem to do the bidding of their masters (the "serious" Murdoch press) , whilst some (most?) is purely commercial - they want to find the most dramatic and fear generating angle (leaving it open to interpretation that Dan wants to extend stage 4 for 12 months) to sell papers/generate views/generate clicks.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Updated graphs for NSW for 7 day average new cases and growth, and for new cases per day (second graph below).