Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[drron]

Some already were and fined, as she will probably will.

But not before the protest.They basically were given a nod and a wink.

 

[RooFlyer]

I didn't mean provoke in the sense of physically provoking when the actual arrest happened. But Activism 101 is arrange for someone who will draw in the most sympathy, to be the martyr to the cause and try whatever you can do to orchestrate the arrest of that person. So don't go looking for a 22 yo male with tattoos, better to find a pregnant woman with 2 kids would be perfect media fodder, and better still ensure she is any bunny slippers at the time. If this was the case, then more fool the police for taking the bait hook line and sinker.

Fair 'nuff. But if it was a set-up, designed to attract attention, then a professional police force should assess the 'risk' and 'threat' when they go to see the person (it was, and as far as I'm aware, still is only an 'alleged' breach). Finding a pregnant lady with kids about should have caused them to step their approach down a bit. 'De-escalation of threats' is a pretty common police skill these days ... in this case, it was the police who needed some 'de-escalation'.

Re the filming, mentioned earlier I think, it takes zero time these days to grab one's mobile phone and start the video function. No 'set up' needed.

Look, those who've read my various rambles over the years here know I am very anti 'demo march' and pro police keeping the law. No apologies for that. But this, as far as we know (and I've just checked news again), was a stupidly disproportional response. Especially when we see the response of the Victorian police to other threatened demos etc.

A Ballarat woman says she was treated well by police who arrested her for allegedly inciting an anti-lockdown protest in regional Victoria.

Yes, supporting the thought that she wasn't a scheming rabble- rouser, she's complimented the police about her treatment when they got her to the police station.

 

[p--and--t]

But not before the protest.They basically were given a nod and a wink.

Once again totally irrelevant to this last week and repeating something with zero equivalence.

You are referring many months ago in the early stages of the first wave before the current offences came into effect and before we had thousands infected before we had 500 dead and before the general populace were warned repeatedly and specifically that the police have been instructed no more leniency for incitement of others.

That was an eon ago and has no relevance to her arrest.

 

[dajop]

Re the filming, mentioned earlier I think, it takes zero time these days to grab one's mobile phone and start the video function. No 'set up' needed.

Filming, yes, but live streaming ( unless it was a facetime/skype/wotsapp type video call to someone) does take a few more steps than just starting the video function on the phone, but not a lot more I guess if you do that on a regular basis. I'd easily able to video something, or even facetime someone, but I wouldn't have a clue how to live stream though, but yes some who does probably could do so with a tap of a few buttons.

Yes, supporting the thought that she wasn't a scheming rabble- rouser, she's complimented the police about her treatment when they got her to the police station.

Agreed, her follow up suggests she might well have been someone who was well meaning, operating on her own, and not the schemer I suspected.

 

[dajop]

Once again totally irrelevant to this last week and repeating something with zero equivalence.

You are referring many months ago in the early stages of the first wave before the current offences came into effect and

You are correct in sentiment, although it wasn't in the early stages of the first wave, it was arguably in either the tail end of the first wave, or the early stages of the second wave. It was on June 6, after some restrictions had been relaxed. Although protests and large gatherings weren't allowed, people were allowed to congregate in groups of upto 20, play sport etc. Different to now.

Rules in force at the time:

Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Victoria's restriction levels

web.archive.org

 

[p--and--t]

You are correct in sentiment, although it wasn't in the early stages of the first wave, it was arguably in either the tail end of the first wave, or the early stages of the second wave. It was on June 6, after some restrictions had been relaxed. Although protests and large gatherings weren't allowed, people were allowed to congregate in groups of upto 20, play sport etc. Different to now.

Rules in force at the time:

Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Victoria's restriction levels

web.archive.org

Thank-you for that post. The facts matter, and I stand corrected as to the timing.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

From the Vic DHHS:
Victorian clusters
The Genomic diagram (PDF) shows the genomic clusters of cases of coronavirus in Victoria. This diagram is being released to provide Victorians with more information about how coronavirus has spread in our communities.

• Genomic clusters are identified when cases of coronavirus have similar RNA codes.
• The left side of the diagram shows the different genomic clusters of the virus and bottom of the diagram shows the timeline of the cluster. The earliest cases in a cluster start on the left, and the most recent cases are on the right.
• The colour of the dot shows how people caught coronavirus – this is based off the best available information at the time.

What this diagram tells us about outbreaks in Victoria

• This diagram identifies cases linked to strains that originated from:
  • Cedar Meats (transmission network 1)
  • Rydges Hotel (transmission network 2)
  • Stamford Hotel (transmission network 3)
• A genomic cluster is sometimes named after the place where the outbreak first occurred. This name does not mean that every case in the genomic cluster was a part of that outbreak. As the virus spreads to different locations new outbreaks can occur. As the virus is very similar and part of the same genomic cluster the outbreaks at different locations can be linked.
• You can also see where coronavirus strains have evolved over time, resulting in different genomic clusters. For example, the virus which started as the Rydges outbreak has evolved into 10 genomic clusters following a super spreading event.
• Many clusters, especially during the first wave, have been linked to the introduction of a strain from someone who has travelled to Victoria from overseas. Many strains in travellers are not linked to any other known cases in Victoria. Where there are clusters, many are small, which means that most people who returned from overseas did not spread the virus to many other people.
• You can see in the diagram where a cluster has been contained or stopped. The Cedar Meats labelled cluster is an example of this. A cluster stops when everyone who has that strain of coronavirus has isolated so they are no longer spreading coronavirus.
• Almost all of the current cases in Victoria (where the sequence is known) are related to the Rydges Hotel cluster. This hotel was used to quarantine individuals returning from overseas. From the genomic and epidemiological data, we know that a family of four who returned from overseas and were quarantining within the hotel, were the first to become unwell in this genomic cluster. Because this family became unwell very shortly after arriving home, it is likely that they acquired infection overseas.
• The Stamford Hotel cluster is the other source of current cases in Victoria. This hotel was also used for quarantine for individuals returning from overseas. From the genomic and epidemiological data, we know that three people who returned home to Australia and were quarantining within the hotel were the first to become unwell in this genomic cluster. It is likely then these people acquired coronavirus overseas. From 21 February to 14 August 2020 there are 110 cases associated with this genomic cluster.
• Of the 5,395 samples of coronavirus that we had genomic data to 14 August, 3,594 are associated with the Rydges Hotel cluster and 110 are associated with the Stamford Hotel cluster.
• More recent data indicates that for the 1,589 cases sequenced from cases with symptom onset from 14 July to 14 August, all but 12 were linked to Rydges. The other 12 cases are linked to the Stamford Hotel cluster. It is likely that 99% of current cases of Covid-19 in Victoria have arisen from the Rydges or Stamford Plaza hotels.

Does this show all the cases in Victoria?
Not every person with coronavirus in Victoria is represented on this diagram. There are several reasons for this:

• Not everyone who has coronavirus gets tested. Some people who have coronavirus don’t have any symptoms or only have very mild symptoms and don’t realise they need to get tested.
• For some people who test positive to coronavirus the sample of the virus might not be of good enough quality for the laboratory to identify the RNA code.
• Where there are five or fewer cases linked or it is possible to identify someone from this information, the clusters have been grouped to protect the privacy of the individuals.
• Not every case has been linked to a cluster. There are many reasons for this, but it is particularly common where an individual has returned from overseas and doesn’t pass coronavirus on to anyone else. In this situation only that person has that particular strain of coronavirus.
• Because of high numbers of cases, some cases have not yet had samples tested for their RNA codes.
• It takes some time to process the sequence, and recent viral strains may not yet appear on this analysis.

Tracking COVID-19 in Victoria | Coronavirus Victoria

Genomics and epidemiology are used to track the spread of COVID-19 in Victoria.

www.dhhs.vic.gov.au

 

[Seat0B]

We don’t as yet know whether we can do that or not, but NSW seems to be doing it well. Fingers crossed it continues.

Plus also ACT, despite our open border with NSW. We have maintained zero cases for a long time now. Maybe it is to do with the "fierce social distancing" commented on by Dr Norman Swan of Coronacast fame in this Canberra Times article. Maybe my complaints about the local supermarkets in this thread were naive by broader standards?

 

[dajop]

• Of the 5,395 samples of coronavirus that we had genomic data to 14 August, 3,594 are associated with the Rydges Hotel cluster and 110 are associated with the Stamford Hotel cluster.

This particular statistic is interesting. One interpretation is that whilst bad management led to escapes from both hotels, why did the Stamford cluster only have limited spread or peter out, whilst the Rydges cluster went viral*? Could it be bad management coupled with bad luck (i.e. it went into a super spreader who spread it wide and far), which in turn suggests, that with some of the documented problems in other hotel quarantines (including in Vic and other states), it was just good fortune, that stopped it going out of control elsewhere. The Stamford cluster does not seem inconsistent (in order of magnitude) to what we are seeing in Sydney right now. Should Sydney folk (and Gladys) thank lady luck, that it hasn't reached a super spreader there?

* yes, sorry for the pun

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This particular statistic is interesting. One interpretation is that whilst bad management led to escapes from both hotels, why did the Stamford cluster only have limited spread or peter out, whilst the Rydges cluster went viral*? Could it be bad management coupled with bad luck (i.e. it went into a super spreader who spread it wide and far), which in turn suggests, that with some of the documented problems in other hotel quarantines (including in Vic and other states), it was just good fortune, that stopped it going out of control elsewhere. The Stamford cluster does not seem inconsistent (in order of magnitude) to what we are seeing in Sydney right now. Should Sydney folk (and Gladys) thank lady luck, that it hasn't reached a super spreader there?

* yes, sorry for the pun

Plus with the Rydges Case:

• Those in quarantine that the transmission came from was a family of 4.
• Patient 0 as in the first person known to be infected in Australia was the Night Manager and not the security guards.

So the rumour sex being the source of the Second Wave in Victoria would seem to be most implausible.

With Patient 0 being reportedly the Night Manager and not a Security Guard would the much heralded police and ADF really have made a significant difference in prevent the Second Wave from being given birth to? Maybe, or maybe not.

Certainly after the Night Manger the security guards did become infected.

The hotel confirmed that its night manager at Rydges on Swanston came down with a fever on May 25 and returned a positive coronavirus test on May 26 before going into isolation two days after his last shift.

The emails reveal that security guards, health workers and hotel staff who had been in the vicinity of the night manager on his last shift were immediately stood down upon his reporting a fever.

Patient zero stayed safe in hotel quarantine after coming down with COVID-19

The former night manager of the Rydges hotel in Swanston Street isolated in the same hotel and kept the disease away from his own family.

www.theage.com.au

What we know, don't know and may never know about 'patient zero' of Victoria's second wave

Did Victoria's second wave start with a night duty manager in a quarantine hotel in inner Melbourne? Here's what we know and what remains unclear.

www.abc.net.au

Inadequate PPE staff practices at the hotel amongst staff would not have helped. , but one could speculate that the Second Wave really grew more from the momentum from what happened after the hotel, than at it.

 

[Lynda2475]

Evidently ScoMo's definition of a Hot Spot to be tabled at national cabiinet tomorrow is less than 30 cases in a 10 day period.

Under this definition, Greater Melbiurne and some Sydney suburbs would currently be considered hotspots.

Expectation is that SA, NSW, Vic and ACT will agree and that Qld, WA, NT and Tas will definitely reject. Qld and WA definitely want 2 consecutive incubation periods (28 days of no cases). I hope Commonwealth withdraws federal subsidies/benefits from any state with unrealistic rules for opening state borders.

Some realism is needed, until there is a woking vacccine which has been given to most of the population, there will be cases and we need to have plans to locally contain and treat that dont include state borders remaining closed indefinitely.

 

[dajop]

Evidently ScoMo's definition of aHot Spot to be tabled atnationwl cabiinet tomorrow is less than 30 cases in a 10 day period.

Should that be more than 30 new cases in 10 day period, and to be no longer considered a hotspot <30 cases? Or does it mean to be declassified the area has to sustain <30 active cases in total for 10 days? Does it apply to whole metro areas or just individual LGAs, or both? I am sure all will be revealed eventually.

 

[jakeseven7]

Evidently ScoMo's definition of aHot Spot to be tabled atnationwl cabiinet tomorrow is less than 30 cases in a 10 day period.

Under this definition, Greater Melbiurne and some Sydney suburbs would currently be considered hotspots.

Expectation is that SA, NSW, Vic and ACT will agree and that Qld, WA, NT and Tas will definitely reject. Qld and WA definitely want 2 consecutive incubation periods (28 days of no cases). I hope Commonwealth withdraws federal subsidies/benefits for from any state with unrealistic rulesfor opening state borders.

Some realism is needed, until there is a woking vacccine which has been given to most of the population, there will be cases and we need to have plans to locally contain and treat that dont include state borders remaining closed indefinitely.

Dr Young the controversial QLD CHO, will have to either resign... or seriously work harder to get QLD’s track and tracing procedures and teams ready for a national approach and a NSW level of cases.

Her current benchmarks are basically like asking a high jumper to clear a 100m high jump - impossible, impracticable and so useless a benchmark people cannot even work with it and write it off.

WA... is just the premier overruling medical advice - that needs a slightly different approach.

The rest of the itty bitty states.... - look, they are nice to have but if we can just get the eastern seaboard open and operating on a quasi national basis that would be a huge positive start to tackling this as a country again.

 

[antycbr]

The rest of the itty bitty states.... - look, they are nice to have but if we can just get the eastern seaboard open and operating on a quasi national basis that would be a huge positive start to tackling this as a country again.

Yes they will fall into line lest their GST subsidy be turned off.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Dr Young the controversial QLD CHO, will have to either resign... or seriously work harder to get QLD’s track and tracing procedures and teams ready for a national approach and a NSW level of cases.

Her current benchmarks are basically like asking a high jumper to clear a 100m high jump - impossible, impracticable and so useless a benchmark people cannot even work with it and write it off.

WA... is just the premier overruling medical advice - that needs a slightly different approach.

The rest of the itty bitty states.... - look, they are nice to have but if we can just get the eastern seaboard open and operating on a quasi national basis that would be a huge positive start to tackling this as a country again.

Overall, I think she is doing a very good difficult job. Would not want to be in her position.

 

[SydneySwan]

The real hypocrisy with Dr Young is that she is setting a higher bar for the neighbouring states than Queensland currently meets and hasn't met for a while. Using her definition NT should close its border with Queensland.

 

[antycbr]

The real hypocrisy with Dr Young is that she is setting a higher bar for the neighbouring states than Queensland currently meets and hasn't met for a while. Using her definition NT should close its border with Queensland.

Keeping Queenslanders Safe right? So when is she doing something about intrastate travel?

 

[Lynda2475]

Should that be more than 30 new cases in 10 day period, and to be no longer considered a hotspot <30 cases? Or does it mean to be declassified the area has to sustain <30 active cases in total for 10 days? Does it apply to whole metro areas or just individual LGAs, or both? I am sure all will be revealed eventually.

From what the reporter was saying i understood it was 30 new cases diagnosed (excluding international arrivals) in 10 days. Whether it is all cases in community or only those from unknown source remains to be seen (i think it is the former), and not total active cases.

No mention whether it applies to regions or LGAs, but Gladys has said LGA based lockdowns in greater Sydney arent feasible to enforce, so im guessing if a Sydney LGA hits this level all of greater Sydney will be deemed a hotspot (a shame imo).

Im sure we will hear much more tomorrow arvo.

 

[antycbr]

From what the reporter was saying i understood it was 30 new cases diagnosed (excluding international arrivals) in 10 days. Whether it is all cases in community or only those from unknown source remains to be seen (i think it is the former), and not total active cases.

No mention whether it applies to regions or LGAs, but Gladys has said LGA based lockdowns in greater Sydney arent feasible to enforce, so im guessing if a Sydney LGA hits this level all of greater Sydney will be deemed a hotspot (a shame imo).

Im sure we will hear much more tomorrow arvo.

Simple NSW Health just stops reporting the numbers.
Eventually the breathless statistics will have to pass - the media must be getting bored by now

 

[jakeseven7]

Should that be more than 30 new cases in 10 day period, and to be no longer considered a hotspot <30 cases? Or does it mean to be declassified the area has to sustain <30 active cases in total for 10 days? Does it apply to whole metro areas or just individual LGAs, or both? I am sure all will be revealed eventually.

The LGA approach is horrifyingly unfair I hope they don’t go with that. They need to go to a postcode level if they are thinking that way.

Example being Melbournes 1.5 lockdown, we had family whose suburb fell into a hotspot LGA because it contained some nursing homes that got hit, about 8 suburbs away. Their suburb had 2 active cases. 2. And was a ‘hot spot’. Utterly ridiculous. But locked down anyway.