Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[RooFlyer]

CONGRATULATIONS - I believe you have set a world record for 'drawing a long bow' there!

And you win the prize for avoiding the simple question. Do police in Victoria have discretion as to how they carry out an arrest as to circumstances at the time?

However, in what we've been talking about, the lady was not thrown to the ground nor had any negative comments to make about her treatment by police.

TheLast bit? So the video was a promo by her for the police service? .

But nah, notDropped to the ground, she was just pregnant, in her pajamas and handcuffed in front of the kids. No biggie; I’m sure they do it every day.

 

[dajop]

I think one thing missing from all this discussion about the Democratic Republic of Victoria, is that it's not quite like China, North Korea, Russia etc, that someone is arrested and never heard from again. There will be an opportunity for it to be tried before a judge. I note this quote from ABC article on the Ballarat woman's arrest:

Ms Buhler has since been charged with incitement and released on bail. She is due to appear in the Ballarat Magistrates' Court in January.

 

[Pushka]

Poor Lamb
"High-profile footy WAG Bec Judd has slammed "Dictator Dan" over the ongoing stage four lockdown keeping her cooped up in her $7.3 million Brighton mansion.

The social media influencer made the comments in an Instagram story promoting a pair of children’s cubby houses from novelty store The Little Cardboard Co.
“Perfect for iso and upcoming school holidays as it seems Dictator Dan will be locking Victorians in our homes even longer,” she wrote, with a rolling eyes emoji."

 

[Must...Fly!]

Poor Lamb
"High-profile footy WAG Bec Judd has slammed "Dictator Dan" over the ongoing stage four lockdown keeping her cooped up in her $7.3 million Brighton mansion.

The social media influencer made the comments in an Instagram story promoting a pair of children’s cubby houses from novelty store The Little Cardboard Co.
“Perfect for iso and upcoming school holidays as it seems Dictator Dan will be locking Victorians in our homes even longer,” she wrote, with a rolling eyes emoji."

Agree with you, she ought to shut up & enjoy her time in her wonderful mansion.

I feel very lucky just to have been continue to be able to go to the office throughout the pandemic. Yes additional risk for me, but it has kept me sane as I have been able to communicate face-to-face with other humans, as I live alone.

My partner on the other hand has a standard office job and she has been WFH since late March. She had pre-existing mental health issues which have only been exacerbated by the lack of human contact & routine. I could go another year or two without seeing my family in WA and I would live. But my heart honestly breaks for those who just cannot cope and who feel like they have no way out.

And unfortunately these kind of comments from the elite who would have nowhere near the level of struggle of most toward the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder cheapen logical arguments about government overreach & balancing of economy/health/societal risks.

 

[Pushka]

Agree with you, she ought to shut up & enjoy her time in her wonderful mansion.

I feel very lucky just to have been continue to be able to go to the office throughout the pandemic. Yes additional risk for me, but it has kept me sane as I have been able to communicate face-to-face with other humans, as I live alone.

My partner on the other hand has a standard office job and she has been WFH since late March. She had pre-existing mental health issues which have only been exacerbated by the lack of human contact & routine. I could go another year or two without seeing my family in WA and I would live. But my heart honestly breaks for those who just cannot cope and who feel like they have no way out.

And unfortunately these kind of comments from the elite who would have nowhere near the level of struggle of most toward the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder cheapen logical arguments about government overreach & balancing of economy/health/societal risks.

MrP continued to go into his quite deserted office in business attire every day and I continued to prepare him a much nicer than normal lunch than the usual peanut butter sandwhich the whole time. He was working alone without seeing a person but did conduct conferences etc using zoom and teams. Not the same as human contact. Routines are so important.

In SA as of Monday people have been urged to go back into the office to work with social distancing etc.

 

[dajop]

Poor Lamb
"High-profile footy WAG Bec Judd has slammed "Dictator Dan" over the ongoing stage four lockdown keeping her cooped up in her $7.3 million Brighton mansion.

Yes, so hard, and in Brighton, there's just nowhere pleasant, like for example a beach or foreshore, within 5km you could go to for exercise either. And the food shops etc there are just dreadful !

 

[Pushka]

Yes, so hard, and in Brighton, there's just nowhere pleasant, like for example a beach or foreshore, within 5km you could go to for exercise either. And the food shops etc there are just dreadful !

The sad thing is, well, not sad - but I cant think of an appropriate word, is that she genuinely thinks she is hard done by.

 

[p--and--t]

Yes, so hard, and in Brighton, there's just nowhere pleasant, like for example a beach or foreshore, within 5km you could go to for exercise either. And the food shops etc there are just dreadful !

....and as previously reported by Karen, the streets are just so dreadfully boring darling, you can't walk down them more than once, all those boring mansions and gardens; and the sand, all the same boring colour, and water - its salty darling. You need to drive 15 km away to walk around the dusty tan track crowded with people and with traffic whizzing by.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Hotspot defined.

metro 30 locally acquired over 3 days
regional 9 locally acquired over 3 days.

Magic ‘hotspot’ numbers to reopen borders

New ‘hotspot’ rules to govern how state borders can reopen before Christmas will declare metropolitan areas no-go areas if they record 30 new COVID-19 cases or more in three days.

www.news.com.au

 

[dajop]

Hotspot defined.

metro 30 locally acquired over 3 days
regional 9 locally acquired over 3 days.

Magic ‘hotspot’ numbers to reopen borders

New ‘hotspot’ rules to govern how state borders can reopen before Christmas will declare metropolitan areas no-go areas if they record 30 new COVID-19 cases or more in three days.

www.news.com.au

So in metro areas it's 30 across the whole metro area.

In regional areas it's 9 over 3 days per town.

Does that mean that we'll start seeing flights resume from MQL to ADL and maybe even to SYD? And residents of Bendigo (7 active cases, total of 3 new cases in the last 4 days) and Ballarat (3 active cases, none in the last 11 days), will be able to travel into NSW soon? Hmm, we'll see....

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So in metro areas it's 30 across the whole metro area.

In regional areas it's 9 over 3 days per town.

Does that mean that we'll start seeing flights resume from MQL to ADL and maybe even to SYD? And residents of Bendigo (7 active cases, total of 3 new cases in the last 4 days) and Ballarat (3 active cases, none in the last 11 days), will be able to travel into NSW soon? Hmm, we'll see....

The aim is Christmas.....read after 31 October for Qld, and already stated after 1 December for Tasmania.

At the end of the article it also quotes the discussion paper/study.

The document also expressly states that Victoria allowed its contact tracing to get out of hand before it asked for help.

“Data analysis from Victoria in early June, indicates that the response required external assistance much earlier than it was requested,” it states.

“Victoria first requested contact tracing workforce assistance on 1 July 2020 … (but) the public health capacity was overwhelmed from June 22, 2020, where the number of cases still under investigation rapidly increased.

“This definition has been applied to the case numbers in NSW over the last fortnight to test the level of sensitivity. These data indicate that NSW would have met the threshold in late July. Further intelligence suggests that NSW is currently managing their contact tracing workforce capacity.

“Published data of the North West Tasmania outbreak show the three-day rolling average of (more than) three cases would have been met early in the outbreak.”

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interestingly, NSW would have been a hotspot on about 20 July.

So while declaring a hotspot might be easier, removing the hotspot tag might be a bit more complicated.

edit: NSW had two instance of falling outside the hotspot definition, before falling below it in a sustained way from about 14 August, and on 18 August first reach half a hotspot (15 or less over 3 days), then becoming a hotspot again on 29 August.

But also interesting over longer periods say 1 or 2 incubation period NSW might not be a hotspot.

Total 104 (97 known source and 6 unknown source plus 1 under investigation), including 2 x 10+ days, over the last 14 days.
Total 212 (5 interstate, 193 known source and 14 unknown source), including 5 x 10+ days, over the last 28 days.

 

[TheRealTMA]

The sad thing is, well, not sad - but I cant think of an appropriate word, is that she genuinely thinks she is hard done by.

Covidiot seems appropriate .

 

[Lynda2475]

So in metro areas it's 30 across the whole metro area

On ABC last night they indicated hotspots wouldnt be whole states or whole cities (i.e. not greater Sydney or Greater Melbourne) but likely specific post codes (or possibly LGAs) and the immediate neighbouring post codes.

 

[moa999]

Just far harder to enforce, particularly in city areas where you could have hundreds over streets between postcodes.

 

[RooFlyer]

Well, here are some interesting numbers. I haven't seen the raw data (unpublished), but here's a report:

The number of deaths of nursing home residents has fallen by almost 1000 in the first seven months of 2020 compared with the year before, even taking into account those who have died this year from coronavirus.

Overall, 32,398 nursing home residents have died in the year to July, unpublished Department of Health data reveals, compared with 33,383 in the first seven months of last year.

In particular the autumn and winter months of May, June and July have experienced significant year-on-year falls. In July last year, 5455 nursing home residents died, compared with 4747 in July this year.




And before anyone starts, no, it doesn't mean I think the management of aged care facilities in the pandemic has been good enough, but its some food for reflecting upon when looking at the grand scheme of things.

 

[jakeseven7]

On ABC last night they indicated hotspots wouldnt be whole states or whole cities (i.e. not greater Sydney or Greater Melbourne) but likely specific post codes (or possibly LGAs) and the immediate neighbouring post codes.

Whichever way you cut it it’s going to be hard to enforce....

But the LGA or above approach is simply too large when you are talking our suppression strategy of about 10-20 cases per day per state.

I posted up thread about an experience family had with the failed LGA experiments in Melb. Doesn’t work.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well, here are some interesting numbers. I haven't seen the raw data (unpublished), but here's a report:

The number of deaths of nursing home residents has fallen by almost 1000 in the first seven months of 2020 compared with the year before, even taking into account those who have died this year from coronavirus.

Overall, 32,398 nursing home residents have died in the year to July, unpublished Department of Health data reveals, compared with 33,383 in the first seven months of last year.

In particular the autumn and winter months of May, June and July have experienced significant year-on-year falls. In July last year, 5455 nursing home residents died, compared with 4747 in July this year.

View attachment 226881


And before anyone starts, no, it doesn't mean I think the management of aged care facilities in the pandemic has been good enough, but its some food for reflecting upon when looking at the grand scheme of things.

So unsurprisingly I guess keeping people away from these facilities has kept the other usual diseases out?

edit DOH response:

The fall in nursing home deaths across the nation is likely the result of increased influenza immunisation rates in the community and infection control protocols introduced during the pandemic, the department said.

 

[I love to travel]

76 new cases 11 deaths in Vic

 

[TomVexille]

Whichever way you cut it it’s going to be hard to enforce....

But the LGA or above approach is simply too large when you are talking our suppression strategy of about 10-20 cases per day per state.

I posted up thread about an experience family had with the failed LGA experiments in Melb. Doesn’t work.

Absolutely. If you go the LGA approach 30 cases in Brisbane City council declares all 1.1 million plus residents to be in a hotspot. It doesn't work.