Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Lynda2475]

Absolutely. If you go the LGA approach 30 cases in Brisbane City council declares all 1.1 million plus residents to be

LGAs must be a lot bigger in Queensland then. Cause Sydney City (not greater Sydney) is 165k, my LGA Inner West is 185k, no where near millions. If the 30 cases in 3 days are in Liverpool LGA id rather they only lock down 200k people there and maybe in neighboring Fairfield LGA than the whole of greater Sydney which would impact 5 million people.

 

[jakeseven7]

LGAs must be a lot biggerin Queensland then. Cause Sydney City (not greater Sydney) is 165k, my LGA Inner West is 185k, no where near millions. If the 30 cases in 3 days are in Liverpool LGA id rather they only lock down 200k people there and maybe in neighboring Fairfield LGA than the whole of greater Sydney which would impact 5 million people.

LGAs are not fair on people when you are talking 10-20 cases per state though like NSW, QLD will probably end up there and VIC not far off getting there too.

Remeber they aren’t talking about locking them down, it’s using an area for a hotspot definition that’s all.

And if that prevents someone from travelling they need to be more micro than that. For a travel Go/No go perspective it should be postcode. But even that can be problematic, there is no perfect solution.

At the risk of repeating my other thread the Melbourne LGA lockdowns were ridiculous because two suburbs out of about 16 were an issue but the whole LGA pays? People just won’t pay any attention to that sort of approach is the massive risk.

 

[Lynda2475]

Its not about per state, that is the whole point, to make hotspots much smaller areas i.e. suburbs or regions (and a LGA is a region) . So if Albury got 30 cases in 3 days it would be declared a hot spot and get tighter restrictions on busineeses and travel, w I th zero impact to Sydney cbd or byron bay. Or if the 30 cases in 3 days were confined to Waverley Council, youd see Bondi, Bondi Junction, Bronte, Dover Heights, Green Park and maybe neighbouring Clovelly orMoore Park restricted but not Parramatta or Northern Beaches.

I support proper hotspot implementation becuase it will remove whole state or whole greater capital city lockdowns, once Melbourne getsunder control. 10 cases per day is a level at which contract tracing can be done quickly and thoroughly.

Policing it will be very hard, but so much better than impacting everyone.

 

[jakeseven7]

If anyone watches that medical show on channel 9 you would recognise this doctor. She caught covid and has written about her experience.

Its actually a brilliant op-ed and in it she reflects on a patient who stopped eating because of the isolation imposed and ends on a thought about how Australia is combatting this disease:


But in my abrupt isolation, my own illness, I was suddenly scared in a way I wasn't while caught up in the constant fight to save others' lives.

Not because I fear I won't survive COVID-19, but because I am petrified that in the success of our fight, we may well lose the very essence of our reason to live.

I'm an emergency doctor, but when I caught coronavirus, I found new insights into this pandemic

As an emergency physician I know illness is the great leveller. When I found myself alone in a room, quarantining with COVID-19, I understood that although loneliness isn't a symptom of this virus it has become one of its cruellest side-effects, writes Mya Cubitt.

mobile.abc.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Its not about per state, that is the whole point, to make hotspots much smaller areas i.e. suburbs or regions (and a LGA is a region) . So if Albury got 30 cases in 3 days it would be declared a hot spot and get tighter restrictions on busineeses and travel, w I th zero impact to Sydney cbd or byron bay. Or if the 30 cases in 3 days were confined to Waverley Council, youd see Bondi, Bondi Junction, Bronte, Dover Heights, Green Park and maybe neighbouring Clovelly orMoore Park restricted but not Parramatta or Northern Beaches.

I support proper hotspot implementation becuase it will remove whole state or whole greater capital city lockdowns, once Melbourne getsunder control. 10 cases per day is a level at which contract tracing can be done quickly and thoroughly.

Policing it will be very hard, but so much better than impacting everyone.

I totally agree with hotspot implementation too but not at an LGA level (unless of course cases and suspected movement is spread evenly across the LGA which is very unlikely).

Broad stroke ‘lazy’ LGA approach has been proven not to work.

They need to be more micro.

Eg if they have a case and all known contacts are within two suburbs - lock those two down not all 16-18 around them as well. You will lose the public instantly if they aren’t targeted enough.

 

[p--and--t]

Well, here are some interesting numbers. I haven't seen the raw data (unpublished), but here's a report:

The number of deaths of nursing home residents has fallen by almost 1000 in the first seven months of 2020 compared with the year before, even taking into account those who have died this year from coronavirus.

Overall, 32,398 nursing home residents have died in the year to July, unpublished Department of Health data reveals, compared with 33,383 in the first seven months of last year.

In particular the autumn and winter months of May, June and July have experienced significant year-on-year falls. In July last year, 5455 nursing home residents died, compared with 4747 in July this year.

View attachment 226881


And before anyone starts, no, it doesn't mean I think the management of aged care facilities in the pandemic has been good enough, but its some food for reflecting upon when looking at the grand scheme of things.

I've been harping on about similar for a couple months. Despite shock horror about cv19, mental health etc etc etc. The overall death rate for Australia for the last 8 months has not changed by more than a margin of error compared to last five years. So much doom and gloom and scare mongering by alleged professionals and experts to get attention from the gov for funding and their faces on TV and the usual click bait from the media. The number of times the word crisis and disaster has been used totally inappropriately in the last few months is obscene.

 

[drron]

But it's at least better than having no community transmission for 28 days across a whole state before AP would let you in.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Looking at new cases per day in Vic over a 7 or 3 day average basis it would seem that the rate of decline is slowing (flattening off) from the more rapid decline that started on about 6 Aug.

Sutton yesterday when pressed on future cases, while framing his answer quite understandably with caveats and cautions, indicated that the current trend (which is with the current restrictions) was a reduction in cases on average of 5-10 per day.

Also when one say also then looks at say NSW (with few restrictions), and NZ (more restrictions but a lot less than Vic current restrictions) and the resultant cases per day it points to Vic requiring further restrictions for some time yet if the goal is to get cases per day down to single digits and ultimately zero.

This probably points to the "roadmap out" to be announced tomorrow to not be rapid one. It would not surprise me if they extend level 4 for a week or two before moving to the reduced restrictions commencing in any substantive way.






And cases per day over 14 days.



NSW cases per day (note today's figure not yet announced)

 

[TomVexille]

LGAs must be a lot biggerin Queensland then. Cause Sydney City (not greater Sydney) is 165k, my LGA Inner West is 185k, no where near millions. If the 30 cases in 3 days are in Liverpool LGA id rather they only lock down 200k people there and maybe in neighboring Fairfield LGA than the whole of greater Sydney which would impact 5 million people.

They most certainly are. The three largest LGAs in the country are in SE QLD. Brisbane, Gold Coast and Moreton Bay Region. 1.2mil, 600k and 460k plus. Would be such a shame if Gladys had to slam the border shut due to 30 cases in an area of 1342km2 and 1.2mil people

 

[Lynda2475]

I can only speak from a NSW pov but our LGAs tend to be about 6 suburbs, no where near 18. They can list postcodes (not suburbs, as many tiny suburbs which are only a few streets like Wareemba, share post code with the larger suburb next door), if the LGA is a large geographic area (rarely the case in inner Sydney).

Under Queensland's current policy wrt NSW and ACT needing zero cases, to protect Queenslanders, then parts of Brisbane and Gold Coast should be restricted restricted from travelling to sunshine coast, FNQ etc as they have cases in the community. Funny how AP thinks NSW residents are likely to be more risky than Queenslanders, given zero cases of NSW residents bringing covid to Queensland.

Gladys would only shut the border to Queensland if their numbers started following the trajectory of Victoria's secknd wave, as Brisbane and Gold coast are so much closer to the NsW than Melbourne is. Gladys is far more practical than the other premiers, she has adequately sourced her contract tracers, is a realist wrt to zero being unrealistic before a widespread vaccine is available globally and so far has stopped the second wave getting out of control whilst being able to keep schools and business open.

Im very happy i resisted employer pressure to relocate to Melbourne last year.

 

[jakeseven7]

I can only speak from a NSW pov but our LGAs tend to be about 6 suburbs, no where near 18. They can list postcodes (not suburbs, as many tiny suburbs which are only a few streets like Wareemba, share post code with the larger suburb next door), if the LGAjs a large geographic area (rarely the case in inner Sydney).

Under Queensland's current policy wrt NSW and ACT needing zero cases, to protect Queenslanders, then parts of Brisbane and Gold Coast should be restricted restricted from travelling to sunshine coast, FNQ etc as they have cases in the community. Funny how AP thinks NSW residents are likely to be more risky than Queenslanders, given zero cases of NSW residents bringing covid to Queensland.

You are totally right and that is why LGA’s won’t work for a myriad of reasons - because they vary so very widely intra/interstate, but the most important is that the public buy into it, which they simply won’t because they are too blunt and wide. I would consider myself as super compliant and cautious but if it was LGA wide, forget it!

And yes QLD’s approach is unravelling every day because it is clearly politically motivated with an increasingly questionable CHO as well.... that is why it doesn’t make sense per your point - because it doesn’t!

 

[TomVexille]

@Lynda2475 the next 3 largest LGAs are then in NSW with numbers 4&5 being Canterbury-Bankstown and Blacktown. While you may not consider them to be inner Sydney, they are most definitely metropolitan Sydney. Additionally Canterbury-Bankstown consists of 43 suburbs, nowhere near 6. Postcode defiition is the way to go.

 

[Lynda2475]

Postcode defiition is the way to go.

Im fine with using postcodes or 5km radius of the postcode with active cases.

My postcode (and the neighbouring which is where i spend all my time as i live in the last street of my suburb) have no active cases, no venues visited by a known case, last cases were overseas arrivals back at start of April. In my neighbourhood people are keeping their distance and wearing masks at the shops. Local coffee shops and restaurants have picked up extra local business cause so many more WFH mean scoffee and lunch is now sourced locally instead of CBD.

Apart from one direct visit to the dentist and optometrist (7km away,masked uber trip there and back no detours) and my week away to Byron this past week, i havent been more than 3kms from my home (walking distance) since mid March.

 

[Pushka]

South Australia has a ridiculously high number of LGA's. So we are micromanaged to a T. And pay for it through taxes.

 

[dajop]

I've been harping on about similar for a couple months. Despite shock horror about cv19, mental health etc etc etc. The overall death rate for Australia for the last 8 months has not changed by more than a margin of error compared to last five years. So much doom and gloom and scare mongering by alleged professionals and experts

I both agree and disagree with you ! Lots of scaremongering, yes, ridiculous. Australia wide death rate may not have varied much, but what about Victoria? Also easy to forgot that Australia, even Victoria in second wave has been very successful in controlling the virus. Would we be able to say the same had Victoria not controlled it and ended up with the same deaths per capital, as say New York State (ie >10,000 in total)? There’s an element of chicken and egg there.

Having said that , frankly the border restrictions are completely ridiculous, except those to metropolitan Melbourne. Look at place like Ballarat, there’s always a lot of movement between there and Melbourne, albeit much reduced I presume during lockdowns. But still, I expect there is some movement. Despite being only 80km or so from the major hotspots, only 50 cases recorded in the last two months. Yet borders have been closed for example between NSW and Qld,and even the COVID hotspots of Mildura (1 case in last 3 months - who advised local press she was in isolation in Melbourne) and Wodonga (also 1 case in last 3 months) being treated by other states the same as if they are in the epicentre. I remain sceptical that the national hotspot definition will achieve much other than opening VIC/NSW/ACT up (and maybe SA? ).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Contrasting active cases per postcode vs LGA you can see quite different things by area.

With hotspot control, the size of the hotspot will be what it is. This could be by postcode as an appropriate zone, but as with the housing commission towers it may be more granular as in individual buildings, or it could be a work location. Certainly in Vic as hotspots were not managed well enough and early enough in the second wave and when the community spread grew to the stage that the hotspot being the whole GMMA was a pretty reasonable one for even though some postcodes were not as bad as others there was by that stage a lot of mixing going on. Also if there is not an easy border or limit (as with an apartment tower) if adjacent ares can mix, then a larger hotspot may be needed, and moreso if community spread is greater.

With the much lesser community spread now in evidence the time is now ripe for the hotspot controls to become more granular than they have been.

 

[dajop]

Im fine with using postcodes or 5km radius of the postcode with active cases.

Even postcodes can be odd, my mothers post code takes about 1.5hrs to drive from one end to the other, and is split into three nonconnected parts with 5-10km between those parts and part of two of those parts are urban areas in a regional city.

Meanwhile my partners mother lives in a Melbourne postcode affected by the first lockdown in Phase 2. The postcode is quite long in one direction, but narrow in the other. Some of the towers were in the postcode - yet they are about 4.5km away, but suburbs only 1.5km away from the towers were not locked down.

But postcodes in many instances better than LGAs ... Colac and Apollo Bay in the same LGA 70km apart, and just because Colac had lots of cases didn’t mean Apollo Bay was affected.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Even postcodes can be odd, my mothers post code takes about 1.5hrs to drive from one end to the other, and is split into three nonconnected parts with 5-10km between those parts and part of two of those parts are urban areas in a regional city.

Meanwhile my partners mother lives in a Melbourne postcode affected by the first first lockdown in Phase 2. The postcode is majnly is quite long in one direction, but narrow in the other. Some of the towers were in the postcode - yet they are about 4.5km away, but suburbs only 1.5km away from the towers were not locked down.

Which is my point in the virus determines what the hotspot actually is. Arbitrary boundaries are just that. Postcodes are more granular than LGA's and so that allows them to be more targeted, but they can still be inappropriate.

 

[jakeseven7]

Which is my point in the virus determines what the hotspot actually is. Arbitrary boundaries are just that. Postcodes are more granular than LGA's and so that allows them to be more targeted, but they can still be inappropriate.

Agreed, any granularity is welcomed, banning whole LGAs from travel for some cases in one far flung corner of the area they cover is going to lose public support instantly. And then there is no point.

 

[p--and--t]

I both agree and disagree with you ! Lots of scaremongering, yes, ridiculous. Australia wide death rate may not have varied much, but what about Victoria? Also easy to forgot that Australia, even Victoria in second wave has been very successful in controlling the virus. Would we be able to say the same had Victoria not controlled it and ended up with the same deaths per capital, as say New York State (ie >10,000 in total)? There’s an element of chicken and egg there.

Having said that , frankly the border restrictions are completely ridiculous, except those to metropolitan Melbourne. Look at place like Ballarat, there’s always a lot of movement between there and Melbourne, albeit much reduced I presume during lockdowns. But still, I expect there is some movement. Despite being only 80km or so from the major hotspots, only 50 cases recorded in the last two months. Yet borders have been closed for example between NSW and Qld,and even the COVID hotspots of Mildura (1 case in last 3 months - who advised local press she was in isolation in Melbourne) and Wodonga (also 1 case in last 3 months) being treated by other states the same as if they are in the epicentre. I remain sceptical that the national hotspot definition will achieve much other than opening VIC/NSW/ACT up (and maybe SA? ).

Don't disagree with anything you posted.

My beef is the daily carp about a dramatic increase in suicides that got so intense and overstated the coroner had to break protocol and come out with a statement saying it was BS. Yes there are a lot of mental health issues but the services have stepped up to handle it.

Also the constant heat on the Vic gov over deaths in aged care homes that are not run be them and protocols not controlled by them (the gov run ones haven't had any issues to write home about) and the little focus on the fact that any death of any kind is classified as a CV19 death if they were infected even though it was not the cause of death. Now the figures are out saying there are way less deaths than usual - so CV19 has not dramatically increased deaths in nursing homes. What it has brought out into the open is the totally incompetent and cruel and demeaning way many of the aged are treated on a daily basis in some homes

I do acknowledge that those who were infected that died in an intensive care unit may have died a lonely death and their relatives not able to be there for support or to assist in the relative's grieving process. However, thousands die every year in their sleep or from heart attacks etc etc and relatives receive no prior notice. People are feeling the need to focus their anger at a loss and being totally irrational about it.