Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Pushka]

And what full lockdown are you referring to?

Apart from the towers and some aged care we have not had them in Vic.

With Shep I assume that they will pretty much do what they did in Kilmore.

I think we likely disagree and will always disagree on the significance on daily life and inability to be with family members and do normal things at the moment and for months now.

 

[N860CR]

Potentially more cases.....? Testing is very very low in QLD, easy for it to skip under radar.

I would suspect not just low, virtually non-existent in Townsville.

Queensland seems to have the plan sorted. Don’t test. Don’t find cases. Say there are no cases.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

And can you even test positive within three days of catching it?

The answer is yes, it’s possible.

The Crossroads staff member got it and passed it on within 24 hours.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW mystery case watch

Today’s reports indicate:
- 6 in the past 7 days
- 1 in the period 8-14 days
- 6 in the past 28 days (so -1 being the old mystery case for the period 15-28 days)
- 28 more than 28 days but since Crossroads emerged

Looks like there are not much options but to keep finding subsequent transmissions because these 6 mystery cases seem quite locked in and this current outbreak is now about a week old (around 7/10)

 

[RooFlyer]

Interesting in the Presser today that a number the journalists who have been complaining about a police state, tower lockdowns etc, Dictator Dan, tight restrictions etc are now all calling en masse that mobile phone records etc should all be taken and checked.

Now CHO indicating that they may indeed do this. But it is interesting in today's flipflop by some journalists.

Pointing the finger at journalists is a bit rich, given what everyone in Vic has gone through. There have been a few flip-flops self-declared by government officials at the hotel quarantine inquiry which I would have thought was more significant to mention and highlight in this thread.

I don’t see that as a flip flop at all but rather a discrimination of relevance - sorting out things that make a difference (eg tracking a known COVID positive person who flouted the rules and super spread) versus rules that are made with no one seemingly making the decision or not remembering who did make the decision and no scientific evidence.

Yes, the elephant in the room.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

The day’s numbers across the nation have apparently all come in.

NSW (Sydney) having more locally acquired new cases in a day than Victoria (Melbourne) for the first time in ages.

WA and SA adding to their tallies (1 and 3 respectively) from international quarantine.

Victoria still leading the aggregate testing statistic.

Australia is currently hovering in the 230 - 250 active case range for the past 7 days - Victoria getting and staying under 200, NSW still under 50, WA still under 20, SA and Qld in single digits.

Australia passing 900 Covid-related deaths

 

[RooFlyer]

Some optimism for Victoria, according to the Federal Health Minister:

Health Minister Greg Hunt says Victoria has now met the commonwealth threshold to re-open and Melbourne would not be considered a COVID-19 hotspot in the eyes of federal medical chiefs.
...
“We have a commonwealth definition in terms of hot spots, that’s a rolling average of less than 10 cases, Victoria is below that rolling average,” he said in Canberra.

“In fact today Victoria’s numbers were below NSW with regards to community transmission, the figures I have before me were, 11 cases within the community of NSW, seven for Victoria.

“They have reached the national standard, the epidemiological standard set by the Chief Medical Officer of Australia and that gives them the chance to follow the pathway which NSW has set"

 

[TomVexille]

I would suspect not just low, virtually non-existent in Townsville.

Queensland seems to have the plan sorted. Don’t test. Don’t find cases. Say there are no cases.

Ah, the DJT method

 

[jakeseven7]

Some optimism for Victoria, according to the Federal Health Minister:

Health Minister Greg Hunt says Victoria has now met the commonwealth threshold to re-open and Melbourne would not be considered a COVID-19 hotspot in the eyes of federal medical chiefs.
...
“We have a commonwealth definition in terms of hot spots, that’s a rolling average of less than 10 cases, Victoria is below that rolling average,” he said in Canberra.

“In fact today Victoria’s numbers were below NSW with regards to community transmission, the figures I have before me were, 11 cases within the community of NSW, seven for Victoria.

“They have reached the national standard, the epidemiological standard set by the Chief Medical Officer of Australia and that gives them the chance to follow the pathway which NSW has set"

With due respect to the Federal Government, zero states are following their national standards because they have been unable to get the states to agree with anything via National Cabinet. Hopefully they can, soon.

 

[dajop]

With due respect to the Federal Government, zero states are following their national standards because they have been unable to get the states to agree with anything via National Cabinet. Hopefully they can, soon.

Part of the problem is no doubt political. Whilst the national standard is useful, the media and political blame if something goes wrong will never go to the federal government, or "national cabinet", only the specific state government.

On the positive side, it will finally give the Federal Treasurer some medical backing when he suggests Victoria should open up, prior to this his attacks over the lockdown (like those of the opposition leader in Victoria) have seemed politically opportunistic and lacked constructiveness and any discussion of what might be acceptable level of transmission. The medically backed national standard IMHO legitimises that criticism now, although all indications are than in 5 days time there will be a solid step forward in Victoria anyway.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think we likely disagree and will always disagree on the significance on daily life and inability to be with family members and do normal things at the moment and for months now.

I doubt that. I think we actually agree on the value of " daily life and inability to be with family members and do normal things" The current circumstances cause great anguish to most, if not all of us, in Victoria and in particular Metro Melbourne. I phone my disabled brother each day, and most days he asks why I cannot see him more often.

I just disagree on the terminology you use ie full lockdown.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

GIven the non-publicized hotspot definition (first I heard of the 10 number is today, doesn’t mention time period - 14 day, 28-day??), then NSW should be first cab off the rank to lower borders lol

 

[Flying mermaid]

And the Queensland woman who tested positive in Melbourne transited through Canberra airport. I knew we should have declared Queensland a hotspot and closed our borders

 

[jakeseven7]

GIven the non-publicized hotspot definition (first I heard of the 10 number is today, doesn’t mention time period - 14 day, 28-day??), then NSW should be first cab off the rank to lower borders lol

Which I'm sure they would be anyway

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So the Geelong case is confirmed as being a true positive and not a false positive? Or still waiting further confirmation?

Just on your questions from yesterday.

Today's Vic DHHS Report has confirmed that the person was was not a re-infection, but rather a recovered person who was still shedding very small amounts of the virus.

​

An expert panel has cleared a case from Geelong yesterday and it has been removed from official numbers. Evidence suggests positive cases can shed small amounts of virus for many weeks post-infection and even after they have recovered, as in this case. ​

There have been other cases like this in Australia. Some testing positive months after infection.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Todays's Vic DHHS Report is out.

Part of this is:

Victoria has recorded seven new cases of coronavirus since yesterday, with the total number of cases now at 20,311.

The overall total has increased by six due to one case being reclassified.

There have been five new deaths from COVID-19 reported since yesterday, of which four occurred prior to yesterday. Two men in their 80s, two women in their 90s and one woman in her 70s. To date, 816 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria.

Three of today’s seven new cases are linked to known outbreaks and cases. All three are linked to Shepparton. The other four cases are under investigation.

Of today’s seven new cases, three are in Greater Shepparton, two are in Wyndham, and there are single cases in Moreland and Whitehorse.
(My comment. Note that one of the Melbourne cases is the Bairnsdale case)

An expert panel has cleared a case from Geelong yesterday and it has been removed from official numbers. Evidence suggests positive cases can shed small amounts of virus for many weeks post-infection and even after they have recovered, as in this case.

The average number of cases diagnosed in the last 14 days (30 Sep 2020 – 13 Oct 2020) for metropolitan Melbourne is 9.6 and regional Victoria is 0.6. The rolling daily average case number is calculated by averaging out the number of new cases over the past 14 days.

The total number of cases from an unknown source in the last 14 days (28 Sep 2020 – 11 Oct 2020) is 14 for metropolitan Melbourne and zero from regional Victoria. The 14-day period for the source of acquisition data ends 48 hours earlier than the 14-day period used to calculate the new case average due to the time required to fully investigate a case and assign its mode of acquisition.

The 14 mystery cases in the last 14 days (28 Sep 2020 – 11 Oct 2020) are located in the following postcodes, 3015, 3019, 3024, 3025 (2 cases), 3027, 3037, 3046, 3073, 3130, 3147, 3173, 3175 and 3184.

Full report at : Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus update for Victoria - 14 October 2020

 

[RAM]

And the Queensland woman who tested positive in Melbourne transited through Canberra airport. I knew we should have declared Queensland a hotspot and closed our borders

All is revealed!!

It is a secret FEDERAL plot!

Could even have been a status run by a desperate AFFer, gulp!

 

[dajop]

Whilst Melbourne's lockdown is severe, Crikey have fact checked the claim that Victoria's lockdown is the most severe in the world.

Was Tony Abbott right when he called Victoria's lockdown the toughest outside of Wuhan?

Tony Abbott says Victoria's coronavirus lockdown is the most severe in the world outside Wuhan. Is he correct?

www.crikey.com.au

Whilst I can't claim any knowledge of the veracity of their fact checking, anecdotally it does seem to be aligned with discussions with various colleagues in lockdowns around the world.

I also suggest the constant voices suggesting it is "the harshest lockdown in the world" are well meaning in trying to get the lockdown lifted (or whatever their reasons for saying so) might well be more detrimental to mental health than those who don't take such a dark view.

 

[p--and--t]

I doubt that. I think we actually agree on the value of " daily life and inability to be with family members and do normal things" The current circumstances cause great anguish to most, if not all of us, in Victoria and in particular Metro Melbourne. I phone my disabled brother each day, and most days he asks why I cannot see him more often.

I just disagree on the terminology you use ie full lockdown.

I doubt many people in Australia can fully contextualise what "lockdown" means because we haven't really had a full lockdown other than the high density towers in North Melbourne.

Perhaps consider (and I haven't been to any of these places since covid - so only working off media reports)

- NZ where according to the media everything was shut across the entire country except supermarkets and chemists. Allegedly it was not possible to buy even a takeaway coffee or takeaway food. All but essential construction was shut down.

- Malaysia where one person was elected from each household (and that had to be the oldest male if there was one). That one person was the only person that could leave the house and could only do so 3 times a week to go grocery shopping and immediately return home. That carried on for months. In hotspots there was a total ban on leaving the house. Other areas a 10km movement rule.

- Chile where anyone of any fitness level 75yrs or older was not permitted to leave the house for around 6 months and only now allowed out for a short period of time 3 times a week. There is a countrywide curfew that has been in effect since April./May timeframe . Face covering are mandatory. Persons living in suburbs deemed to be hotspots need a permit to leave the house and may only do so twice week.

- China where citizens were confined to one city block only and in some cases confined to only their building for weeks/months at a time.

 

[DC3]

Whilst Melbourne's lockdown is severe, Crikey have fact checked the claim that Victoria's lockdown is the most severe in the world.

Was Tony Abbott right when he called Victoria's lockdown the toughest outside of Wuhan?

Tony Abbott says Victoria's coronavirus lockdown is the most severe in the world outside Wuhan. Is he correct?

www.crikey.com.au

....

Yes, TA, somewhat out of his depth on that lockdown claim, it seems.

Maybe better to concentrate on that job he’s chasing in the UK, sitting on the Cheese Board, or whatever it is?