Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[TheRealTMA]

Any hope for further progress nationally delayed for another fortnight.


Tomorrow's National Cabinet meeting has been called off due to "technical problems" preventing Prime Minister Scott Morrison from returning to Sydney.

The meeting, which brings together the Premiers and Chief Ministers from all eight of Australia’s jurisdictions, was the first in four weeks.

The “technical problems” are reportedly to do with the PM’s RAAF plane.

Aww. How difficult that the Air Force can’t provide a plane to get him back.

I would submit that “Technical problems” have more to do with the QLD election where’s he’s spruking for the local branch.

QLD doesn’t have a facility to allow him to participate via video link??

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As I mentioned earlier today in this recent phase of lower new case numbers we are seeing a pattern that there are now very scattered.




This can also been seen in active cases per postcode. Both 14 day as well as the last 7 days are shown below.

 

[Pushka]

I think I heard just two new infections in Victoria and no deaths?

 

[admin]

I think I heard just two new infections in Victoria and no deaths?

Correct!! FANTASTIC NEWS!!

 

[33kft]

While 2 for Victoria today with no deaths is a great result, its all about the unknown cases as I am reminded here often, and they're up 2 to 17 over the last 2 weeks. Need to be down to 5 over 2 weeks to meet the original current reopening targets.

 

[Pushka]

And another situation where lessons just aren't being learned. The same strategy was used in SA for the last cluster start a few weeks ago, where a college student tested positive, so 80 close contacts were put into Hotel isolation paid by us but ok with that, comprising of a large mix of languages and cultures plus another 1000 people put into home isolation. The leaders of those communities were briefed by SA Health and spoke to each of their cultural clusters explaining what they needed to do.

"Both Queensland and NSW have “successfully” used the measure — which immediately isolates contacts of close contacts to an infected person — to snuff out new clusters.

Victorian authorities admitted on Thursday that had the strategy been in place, the truck driver would have isolated as soon as an employee at his son’s workplace tested positive. This would have been the day before he drove to regional Victoria, sparking outbreaks in Kilmore and Shepparton."

 

[jakeseven7]

 

[jakeseven7]

And another situation where lessons just aren't being learned. The same strategy was used in SA for the last cluster start a few weeks ago, where a college student tested positive, so 80 close contacts were put into Hotel isolation paid by us but ok with that, comprising of a large mix of languages and cultures plus another 1000 people put into home isolation. The leaders of those communities were briefed by SA Health and spoke to each of their cultural clusters explaining what they needed to do.

"Both Queensland and NSW have “successfully” used the measure — which immediately isolates contacts of close contacts to an infected person — to snuff out new clusters.

Victorian authorities admitted on Thursday that had the strategy been in place, the truck driver would have isolated as soon as an employee at his son’s workplace tested positive. This would have been the day before he drove to regional Victoria, sparking outbreaks in Kilmore and Shepparton."

I'm not sure that is quite accurate, but regardless the question is, when are you able to kick this in with the numbers VIC were dealing with, and to be fair the other states never got the level of active cases as VIC.

Anyway and again, the main thing is that the '3rd ring' of contacts is now in place and that is all that matters now.

Great result for VIC. Really allows them to focus on those pesky mystery cases now.

 

[jakeseven7]

Also great results for regional VIC

Over 2000 tests in Shepp as of this AM - zero more cases.

They have 11 testing sites operating up there as part of the rapid response which really dwarves the NSW reaction to their regional clusters on the South Coast, so great to see VIC really jumping on it and so far so good. All priority contacts and high risk locations have been processed too as a priority.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'm not sure that is quite accurate, but regardless the question is, when are you able to kick this in with the numbers VIC were dealing with, and to be fair the other states never got the level of active cases as VIC.

Anyway and again, the main thing is that the '3rd ring' of contacts is now in place and that is all that matters now.

Great result for VIC. Really allows them to focus on those pesky mystery cases now.

From the press conference it is not accurate.

It also assumes that the truck driver would have done the right thing in isolating properly when what is known of that person is that they 1/have no compunction in breaking rules and 2/ even when they know they have infected other people have actively suppressed knowledge of many other possible people being infected.

 

[Flying mermaid]

To me the important thing now is that Victoria appear to be demonstrating that they can jump on an outbreak and suppress it, as NSW, QLD and others have been doing. Given this ability they really should be able to open up more, given the low level of cases. The high level of mystery cases is a worry, but I am not sure they will ever go away given how much it has spread in Melbourne.

 

[jakeseven7]

To me the important thing now is that Victoria appear to be demonstrating that they can jump on an outbreak and suppress it, as NSW, QLD and others have been doing. Given this ability they really should be able to open up more, given the low level of cases. The high level of mystery cases is a worry, but I am not sure they will ever go away given how much it has spread in Melbourne.

Although it doesn't count for QLD's border clock rules (new 48 hour linking deadline), you have to give the mystery cases some time to resolve.

With such small numbers the contact tracers are intensively following them up repeatedly to try and link them in both NSW and VIC.

NSW and VIC have had the same number of mystery cases registered over the last week but then you see some fall off over time as they are linked retrospectively.

There is certainly unknown spread happening in Sydney as well, so they will be in the same boat both our major cities. Lets hope both can keep a lid on it.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

While 2 for Victoria today with no deaths is a great result, its all about the unknown cases as I am reminded here often, and they're up 2 to 17 over the last 2 weeks. Need to be down to 5 over 2 weeks to meet the original current reopening targets.

Yes unknown cases are the main worry. But with total new cases per day now so low they will soon start to decline as well.

About a week or so ago Sutton based on the numbers said that there was probably about 30% more people who were infected but would be asymptomatic and so would not present for testing. These spreaders will be creating the mystery cases but as symptomtic cases pop up these transmission chains will in time be extinquished.........as long as symptomatic people keep getting tested that is.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Its great that Vic / Melbourne got a number less than 5, which is an important first step in getting the average below 5.

Having watched NSW mystery cases, I feel anything above 1 per day will start to be problematic. There was a period that NSW had mystery cases at about 1 per day average, but this includes what I call transient mystery cases (ie initially a mystery case but the link was ultimately found).

NSW is down to about 35 mystery cases since Crossroads emerged around 11 July, now more than 3 months ago (97 days ago).

 

[Flying mermaid]

Although it doesn't count for QLD's border clock rules (new 48 hour linking deadline), you have to give the mystery cases some time to resolve.

With such small numbers the contact tracers are intensively following them up repeatedly to try and link them in both NSW and VIC.

NSW and VIC have had the same number of mystery cases registered over the last week but then you see some fall off over time as they are linked retrospectively.

There is certainly unknown spread happening in Sydney as well, so they will be in the same boat both our major cities. Lets hope both can keep a lid on it.

I can’t see QLD opening to Vic in a hurry regardless so not really even thinking about that criteria

 

[jakeseven7]

I can’t see QLD opening to Vic in a hurry regardless so not really even thinking about that criteria

Oh I agree, that was for our NSW friends in case they got too excited

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I can’t see QLD opening to Vic in a hurry regardless so not really even thinking about that criteria

Given Qld’s precedent on NSW’s Covid spread, Vic will be waiting at least over 70 days (That’s my estimate of how far Vic is behind NSW with respect to mystery cases)

NSW had a real mystery case average of about 1 every 3rd day, only getting 12 days without a mystery case (enhanced by reduced testing approaching long weekend/school holidays).

 

[jakeseven7]

Given Qld’s precedent on NSW’s Covid spread, Vic will be waiting at least over 70 days (That’s my estimate of how far Vic is behind NSW with respect to mystery cases)

QLD opens to VIC on Xmas eve, reuniting desperate families and giving a much needed boost to QLD's decimated tourism industry.

Heard it here first

 

[antycbr]

QLD opens to VIC on Xmas eve, reuniting desperate families and giving a much needed boost to QLD's decimated tourism industry.

Heard it here first

I doubt it will give any boost to Queensland's tourism industry. Who in their right mind will book in Queensland given that the border can open and close on the whim of AP, JY and "Dr" SM?

 

[james4321]

I doubt it will give any boost to Queensland's tourism industry. Who in their right mind will book in Queensland given that the border can open and close on the whim of AP, JY and "Dr" SM?

Just about everybody will including those who has been complaining (jealously?) about not being able to escape to Glorious Queensland. Short memory syndrome will kick in