Australian state border restrictions

[danflyer]

There’s now also active resistance to the public health measures due to the breach of trust caused by the abandonment of the date. A number of people anecdotally telling me that they won’t check in and won’t test or isolate.

If Mark McGowan the Premier of WA cannot stick to or provide a clear way out of this, I guess his population will find a way of doing it themselves. It is his failure as a leader.

 

[jakeseven7]

Was that 20% the people at the knocking shop ?

And one of the restaurants was even lower, they said their QR code sign had fallen down.... cough... yup, that wind in Perth is a real killer Plus over half of the Freo crowd identified at the bar didn't turn up to be tested.

It is probably reasonably safe to assume its spreading amongst young healthy people and vaccinated people.

 

[antycbr]

And one of the restaurants was even lower, they said their QR code sign had fallen down.... cough... yup, that wind in Perth is a real killer Plus over half of the Freo crowd identified at the bar didn't turn up to be tested.

It is probably reasonably safe to assume its spreading amongst young healthy people and vaccinated people.

Wonder what they’ll do with Australia Day holiday (unless they cancel it so they can secede)

 

[MARTINE]

Was that 20% the people at the knocking shop ?

Is that the coughburn cluster again?

 

[oznflfan]

Is that the coughburn cluster again?

You can't blame the Massage Technicians either, global supply chain has played havoc with lubricant supplies.

 

[MARTINE]

You can't blame the Massage Technicians either, global supply chain has played havoc with lubricant supplies.

I can understand the not checking in though - ‘close contact’ and ‘exposures’ in that occupation a recipe for spreading

 

[jakeseven7]

You can't blame the Massage Technicians either, global supply chain has played havoc with lubricant supplies.

Well the borders have been closed so long, the talent pool in WA has probably run pretty dry - people are probably getting desperate

 

[Solid]

Its not sarcasm. All I'm saying is, 'short and sharp' lockdowns are usually nothing like that. Lockdowns are a good idea when the population isn't vaccinated, sure. But, for a 90 % double vaccinated population? Even with a full lockdown, elimination of this variant is unrealistic. The impacts on peoples lives would, however, be catastrophic.

You missed the change in propaganda wording - they are not short sharp lockdowns anymore they are “circuit breakers”.

 

[stryker]

If Mark McGowan the Premier of WA cannot stick to or provide a clear way out of this, I guess his population will find a way of doing it themselves. It is his failure as a leader.

I don't think you have spoken to enough ordinary Perthites

 

[danflyer]

I don't think you have spoken to enough ordinary Perthites

Are you from Perth, what do you think of the whole thing?

 

[Must...Fly!]

I don't think you have spoken to enough ordinary Perthites

People I've spoken to have overwhelmingly lost faith.

One of my best mates was absolutely behind keeping the border closed, to the extent we didn't talk for months because of the chasm between our opinions. Over the past few weeks we've been talking non-stop and he wants the border open yesterday.

 

[danflyer]

People I've spoken to have overwhelmingly lost faith.

One of my best mates was absolutely behind keeping the border closed, to the extent we didn't talk for months because of the chasm between our opinions. Over the past few weeks we've been talking non-stop and he wants the border open yesterday.

So you think most in Perth wanted the border to open on the 5th, as planned? Or at least were disappointed at the way it was cancelled with no clear path forward?

 

[Must...Fly!]

So you think most in Perth wanted the border to open on the 5th, as planned? Or at least were disappointed at the way it was cancelled with no clear path forward?

Personally feel like most had a level of anxiety but accepted that the alternative of indefinite closure isn't realistic.

I think there would be many who are happy the borders aren't opening, but there would also be many who are seriously angry and distressed for any number of reasons. Stretching from family to business to feeling like they've been slapped in the face.

And above all I think almost everyone is now asking "having spent a lot of other people's money, what's been done in the last 2 years to prepare?"

 

[PineappleSkip]

WA has a 90 % double vaccination rate right now.

Close; it will pass 90% in a few days. As of today the 16+ double vaxxed rate in WA is 89.04%. However WA is advancing (1.45% in the last week) faster than Qld, where vax rate growth has clagged out (increase only 0.45% in the past week). Qld would make 90% double vaxxed in about 2 weeks time at that rate, but each additional punter is harder to reach than the last. You can bet this was a big factor in Qld abandoning restrictions before the magic 90% was reached.

WA (24 cases) is where Qld was on 16 Dec (22 cases). That's only 5½ weeks ago, and Qld abandoned border restrictions altogether less than 3 weeks after 16 Dec. By early March, WA case rates will likely be similar to those at the moment over East, at which time infections there will likely have subsided considerably - experience elsewhere indicates rapid growth, a quick peak and a rapid fall.

So Marko's "open when 90% triple vaxxed plan" is clutching at straws and the premise for it is going to collapse very quickly. Just how quickly will be an interesting test of the efficacy of WA's restrictions in slowing spread. The higher vax rate in WA at this point and the less porous border will help. However I think they will be demonstrated as an epic fail.

Cheers skip

 

[Jenya]

Govern me harder, Daddy.

 

[oz_mark]

People I've spoken to have overwhelmingly lost faith.

One of my best mates was absolutely behind keeping the border closed, to the extent we didn't talk for months because of the chasm between our opinions. Over the past few weeks we've been talking non-stop and he wants the border open yesterday.

Interestingly, I have seen a bit of a hardening of position in the two camps, with the for and against being equally vocal (and even more disdainful of the position of the other side)
Having said that, it looks about evenly split to me. Equal numbers on both sides.

Post automatically merged: Jan 23, 2022

So Marko's "open when 90% triple vaxxed plan" is clutching at straws and the premise for it is going to collapse very quickly. Just how quickly will be an interesting test of the efficacy of WA's restrictions in slowing spread. The higher vax rate in WA at this point and the less porous border will help. However I think they will be demonstrated as an epic fail.
Cheers skip

I think it is going to take more than the mask mandates that we have now to slow it. I think we will need to move back to social distancing and denisty limits to keep it under control, but they seem reluctant to go down that path.

 

[antycbr]

Interestingly, I have seen a bit of a hardening of position in the two camps, with the for and against being equally vocal (and even more disdainful of the position of the other side)
Having said that, it looks about evenly split to me. Equal numbers on both sides.

Post automatically merged: Jan 23, 2022

I think it is going to take more than the mask mandates that we have now to slow it. I think we will need to move back to social distancing and denisty limits to keep it under control, but they seem reluctant to go down that path.

You also need everyone to comply to achieve the outcome of keeping it under control.

If the camps are equal then you have a sizeable minority of people who are incentivised to not comply and ignore the directions of the government to achieve their objective - widespread transmission which will force the border open.

You cannot then resort to policing your way into compliance either without driving even more people into the noncompliance camp, something Victoria learnt.

 

[jakeseven7]

You also need everyone to comply to achieve the outcome of keeping it under control.

And it only takes one 'limo driver' for it to come unstuck.

So even if its a hypothetical 40% 'let me out of WA prison' / 60% 'govern me daddy harder', that's going to blow up. Theres too much opposition now, its messy, compliance is low = Omicron parteeeee.

 

[k_sheep]

I was mean to be in Perth tomorrow for work; we delayed it til 6th Feb to avoid quarantine.

So ... sorry people of WA, you aren't getting a specialist doctor to cover critical shortages. And I'm only one of dozens.

 

[danflyer]

Close; it will pass 90% in a few days. As of today the 16+ double vaxxed rate in WA is 89.04%. However WA is advancing (1.45% in the last week) faster than Qld, where vax rate growth has clagged out (increase only 0.45% in the past week). Qld would make 90% double vaxxed in about 2 weeks time at that rate, but each additional punter is harder to reach than the last. You can bet this was a big factor in Qld abandoning restrictions before the magic 90% was reached.

WA (24 cases) is where Qld was on 16 Dec (22 cases). That's only 5½ weeks ago, and Qld abandoned border restrictions altogether less than 3 weeks after 16 Dec. By early March, WA case rates will likely be similar to those at the moment over East, at which time infections there will likely have subsided considerably - experience elsewhere indicates rapid growth, a quick peak and a rapid fall.

So Marko's "open when 90% triple vaxxed plan" is clutching at straws and the premise for it is going to collapse very quickly. Just how quickly will be an interesting test of the efficacy of WA's restrictions in slowing spread. The higher vax rate in WA at this point and the less porous border will help. However I think they will be demonstrated as an epic fail.

Cheers skip

Nice analysis. Maybe in early March the rest of Aus will restrict entry from WA due to the greatest rate of covid increase in the country.