Ethiopian 737 Max 8 crash and Fallout

[serfty]

I am not sure what you are reading here as it certainly doesn't come across to me that he is saying anything about 'pilot error.' To me he clearly says that the pilots were inadequately trained

He is doubling down.on the preconceptive declaration he made after the first crash.

He is strethching credibility here.

 

[straitman]

He is doubling down.on the preconceptive declaration he made after the first crash.

Sorry I do not know what you mean but I'll take a guess that you are saying he's contradicting himself.

That being the case maybe he has simply changed his mind as more information has become available. He is right in one part at least that the 737 Max will be the most scrutinised a/c ever and in theory at least it therefore should be the safest.

... or then maybe he's not really the expert he portrays himself as.

 

[jb747]

I've spent quite some time today trying to find a way of wording this. I can't. I think he's an "censored".

There have been zero cases of MCAS operation in the USA. So, no better trained white men have saved the aircraft. Whist there are very likely inadequacies in the training of these crews, that exists everywhere. There have been plenty of comments of various forums about how 'I' could have saved the day. Until you are there, and faced with the issue, with the knowledge that was available at the time, you are touching something best left alone.

Yes, in one case the Captain turned the stab trim back on. I don't think that was a mistake. Sadly, he was in a situation in which that was his last chance. Because Boeing had never ensured that the manual trim had adequate authority, he actually needed the electric trim back on to have any chance of regaining control. I can see exactly what he was trying to do. Sadly it didn't work. His last thoughts would not have been about the quality of Boeing engineering.

Will it be the most tested aircraft ever. Probably, but not in the way implied. It probably already was, given that it dates back to the mid '60s, and has gone through many variants. The testing involved in fixing this mess is almost certainly trivia compared to what was done testing the initial FBW aircraft. So, no, it isn't the safest aircraft. It isn't even certifiable at all under the current regulations.

 

[serfty]

Sorry I do not know what you mean but I'll take a guess that you are saying he's contradicting himself.

Actually, the opposite - after the first crash he was 100% blaming the pilots and not the aircraft - after the second he is now blaming the pilots along with their training despite how much is now public about the aircraft and its faults.

Doubling down on the initial comment by rephrasing it even though he is incorrect.

... or then maybe he's not really the expert he portrays himself as.

Exactly.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

I am not sure what you are reading here as it certainly doesn't come across to me that he is saying anything about 'pilot error.' To me he clearly says that the pilots were inadequately trained.

You say tomato, I say tomato. Tomato, tomato, potato, potato. Let's call the whole thing off.

To blame inadequate pilot training you must implicitly assume pilot error.
There is no way inadeqaute pilot training could have a causal connection to an incident unless the inadequate training led the pilots to make an error which caused the incident.

 

[OATEK]

You say tomato, I say tomato. Tomato, tomato, potato, potato. Let's call the whole thing off.

To blame inadequate pilot training you must implicitly assume pilot error.
There is no way inadeqaute pilot training could have a causal connection to an incident unless the inadequate training led the pilots to make an error which caused the incident.

While we all may tend to agree on the old maxim that there are usually many seemingly random events or failures in any major crash, there surely is no doubt that the pilots did not cause this crash. They may have contributed, through overspeed, or inability to manually trim, but even then it is hard to see this as "causal" as @esseeeayeenn and @jb747 have argued in their different ways. They were just unable to overcome a more modern and agressive HAL, and an undersized trim wheel that even Arnie in his hey day might not have been able to turn.

When you look at the comments on many US based bulletin boards like Flight Aware, there are posters determined to put all the blame on the pilots just as Mr Bailey has (eg look at some of the comments here - Engineer: Ethiopian Airlines Went Into Records After Crash ✈ FlightAware).

While the 737MAX may turn out ok in the end, I am very much influenced by JB's comment that this aircraft would not meet current certification requirements, and will not be in a hurry to try one out if/when they do get back in the air.

 

[codash1099]

Yet another contribution:

Boeing and F.A.A. Faulted in Damning Report on 737 Max Certification (Published 2019)

A task force found that Boeing did not adequately describe the system that contributed to two crashes, and that the F.A.A. failed to understand much of what the company did share.

www.nytimes.com

 

[esseeeayeenn]

as @esseeeayeenn and @jb747 have argued in their different ways

To clarify, as @OATEK has understood, my argument was not that either pilot error or training was to blame, rather that to blame the latter would necessarily imply the former. FWIW in my view the fundamental problem arises from a series of decisions made by Boeing to directly or indirectly save money. The first being to develop a new 737 instead of a whole new aircraft, to fit it with bigger engines, then to shift the engines to preserve ground clearance, which fundamentally changed the behaviour of the aircaft, then to try to use a software fix to avoid the requirement to retrain and recertify pilots as a consequence of that changed behaviour. There were other bad decisions as well, such as relying on one sensor, and trying to market the essential warning systems for sensor inconsistency as optional add-ons to increase revenue. Arguing over whether a heroic pilot could have overcome the net effect of these bad decisions is pointless. It is this history which will make me extremely reluctant to fly on these aircraft even if they are ever cleared to fly.

 

[straitman]

You say tomato, I say tomato. Tomato, tomato, potato, potato. Let's call the whole thing off.

To blame inadequate pilot training you must implicitly assume pilot error.
There is no way inadeqaute pilot training could have a causal connection to an incident unless the inadequate training led the pilots to make an error which caused the incident.

Short answer.

NO.

I'll explain when I have more time.

 

[oz_mark]

Boeing has stripped Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg of his role as chairman

Boeing strips CEO of chairman role as 737 MAX crisis drags on

The news comes as a scathing report was released highlighting missteps by the planemaker and aviation regulators in the development and approval of the jet.

www.smh.com.au

 

[AviatorInsight]

The latest piece from Byron Bailey in today’s Oz.

Pilots: any comments?

Another rubbish piece. A big factor that he was missing, was that there was an unreliable airspeed (in both?). In which case, the first memory items are Autopilot and Autothrottle disengage. So by essentially throwing the aircraft at the autopilot would still not have saved it.

I've spent quite some time today trying to find a way of wording this. I can't. I think he's an "censored".

I am so glad it wasn’t just me, I had a reply ready to go yesterday, but thought I’d get kicked off the forum, so I sat on it for another 24hrs.

 

[jb747]

Autopilot won't engage if it's grossly out of trim, so that's not going to save the day.

 

[AviatorInsight]

737 autopilot also won’t engage with any control force.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Seems those highly qualified American pilots weren't so happy with the 737 Max 8 after all.
As the article states, this looks like the smoking gun for criminal charges against Boeing.

Boeing Pilot Complained of ‘Egregious’ Issue With 737 Max in 2016 (Published 2019)

Two years before two deadly crashes, a top pilot told a colleague that a new automated system, known as MCAS, was causing trouble in flight simulators.

www.nytimes.com

 

[suze2000]

I read the article more like Boeing attempting to lay the blame on the test pilot for not raising more of a fuss...

 

[jb747]

I read the article more like Boeing attempting to lay the blame on the test pilot for not raising more of a fuss...

Instead of Boeing, insert Volkswagen. Upper management may not have directed the development of a dangerous system, but they provided the aims and deadlines. The outcome, engineering short circuits, was the same in both cases. It cost VW in the order of $35 billion. In both cases, a proper job would have been much cheaper.

He wasn't a test pilot. I think you'll find that they are a separate group. As a 'technical pilot', he might have had a fair bit to do with them, but would have had more involvement in things like the manuals. The fact that the's now an FO with one of the airlines would indicate that he wasn't very far up the tree. But, I understand that he is the bloke who tried to 'take the 5th' with regard to providing documents. As usual, there is more to this story.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Any way we look at it, there seems to have been some knowledge of potential problems going back to 2016. if the exclusion from the training manual is true, that doesn't look good for Boeing. Nor our 'pilot/journalist' above.

 

[amaroo]

The bloke doesn't come across very well in that article.

 

[RisingPhoenix]

The bloke doesn't come across very well in that article.

At least he has pretty good taste in Vodka.

 

[oz_mark]

I read the article more like Boeing attempting to lay the blame on the test pilot for not raising more of a fuss...

There are those that aren't buying it:

Mr DeFazio, who as chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is overseeing the investigation into the crashes, said he had reviewed other internal Boeing documents and emails that suggested employees were under pressure to produce planes as fast as possible and avoid additional pilot training.

"Boeing cannot say this is about one person," Mr DeFazio said. "This is about a cultural failure at Boeing under pressure from Wall Street to just get this thing out there and make sure that you don't open the door to further pilot training."