Flight Availability/Loadings & Upgrade Probability Help Desk

[Sprucegoose]

PLEASE INCLUDE DATE, FLIGHT NUMBER, ORIGIN & DESTINATION IN ALL REQUESTS

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>>>> ADDED BY ADMIN (6 Sept 2010) <<<<

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Background to this thread
We have noticed an increase in the posting of questions about seat availability on specific flights. These are all valid questions and we all appreciate the efforts our members go to to provide answers.

The only drawback is that our forums can become "cluttered" with specific questions about availability on specific flights. This tends to reduce the overall usability of our site.
We have therefore created this new consolidated thread where you can ask questions about seat availability on specific flights. Hopefully, this will reduce clutter and improve useability.

Guidelines for posting in this thread
Please post questions about availability of specific flights or upgrade probability in this new consolidated thread. Be sure to include the airline, flight number, date, origin and destination and any other relevant detail.

When answering questions, please include the original question. This will assist in readability and management of the thread.

Thanks!

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For Questions about Aircraft Configuration and Seat Availability, please use this thread:​

Understanding [Fare Buckets] Expert Flyer

I'd appreciate some help understanding the information EF provides. For example, F6 A6 J9 C9 D9 I0 B9 H9 K9 M9 R9 L9 V9 S0 N0 Q0 O0 X0 E0 What letters do I look at to try to work out how many seats are still available in economy? What letters do I look at to try to work out how many...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

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See this thread for hints on how to read loadings:

Interpreting and Understanding Expert Flyer​

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If looking for, say Qantas points upgrades, look for A class for First, mid to high D or any I class for Business and any R for Premium Economy.

Look for the most expensive category of the cabin YOU are currently booked in as being sold out e.g. J0 to first, W0 to Business & Y0 to PE for increased op-up chances. Also, look for availability on the discount premium buckets (A, P, I, D, U, T & Z inventories).

Conversely, look for high numbers in the discount economy buckets (N, O, Q, E & X inventories) for reduced op-up chances.

Seat maps can be a VERY rough guide but note that just because a seat is not showing as allocated does not mean that seat hasn't been sold. Not everyone pre-selects seats.

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>>>> END OF ADMIN UPDATE <<<<

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Original thread title: update on QF93 on 12 sept

Appreciate it if someone could check EP for loadings.

thnxs

SPRUCE

 

[asdf]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Thanks for the rapid response ChrisCh! So U/1 signifies an upgrade? We are departing 13/5

 

[ChrisFlyer]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Oh sorry, I thought your first post said two weeks, not three! U1 showing <24 before departure indicates a pending upgrade, showing 10 days before departure indicates a Classic Award seat becoming available (or a cheap JASA). No doubt on a route like this it will get snapped up quickly, but shows that QF are having trouble filling the cabin, which, in addition to the loadings you provided, is a sign of an increased upgrade chance.

Just to clarify - are you booked on QF128 HKG-SYD (not SYD-HKG as your first post shows), or are you booked on QF127 (SYD-HKG) on the date you mentioned?

 

[asdf]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Ah, I see what I did there. SYD-HKG this week then HKG-SYD returning on the date I mentioned above. I think I'd had a wine or two before that first post

 

[ChrisFlyer]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Haha I like your style

The full load of your flight is currently F9 A9 J9 C9 D9 I9 U1 W1 R0 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 N9 Q9 O9 G0 X9 E0.

If you put in for both J & PE upgrades, as platinum, I'd say an 80% chance of J, and about 5% chance of PE (as PE looks oversold, or intentionally restricted). As economy is wide open (X9), the chance of an op-up (eg your points upgrade being denied but being bumped up at the last minute) is about 0%. Of course, this depends on how many other CL/WP1/WP have requested upgrades from Y. I'll have another look on the 10th (if I forget, just post again in this thread to remind me), though so far, so good!

 

[asdf]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Thanks ChrisCh, I appreciate your help. I only put in for J upgrade as, to be honest, it's more of a treat for the OH who's never been in INT J.

I'm working as soon as I get back from the holiday so a more comfortable sleep would be welcomed too!

 

[ReLoad]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

For those who may or may not be interested.

Here is a graphical representation of a flight's availability over time.
You can clearly see the various effects of the upgrade process at 7 days, 48 hours and 24 hours.
You can also see yield management trying to sell a few last seats.

Ill try get some more snapshots in the hours counting down to departure - I have a script running - but will not be able to post until later - due to being on the flight.
Incidentally my upgrade from L to J (or W) has not cleared as yet. (its not quite 24 hours) but being a pessimist I'm thinking ill have to enjoy the whY seat.

 

[wafliron]

Re: Updrade availability

If the flight stays *this* empty, expect them to release U seats around two weeks prior (but it pays to check every day, or set an ExpertFlyer alert for U class so that you can snap it up as soon as available). ...still worth setting an EF alert! If you don't have EF, let me know and I'll happily set alerts for you in my account, though I would have to receive them at my address and then PM you (and by the time that happened, the P/U seat(s) may have already disappeared)

Thanks for the advice Chris, exactly what I wanted to know. Thanks also for the offer re EF but I do have a subscription (and the appropriate alerts setup already) - I was more looking for info about what was likely.

F9 A8 indicates that they have only sold a few seats, but that they expect to get away with selling a few full-fare First seats (either last-minute or earlier if the A inventory isn't increased), so getting a P seat on this flight may be slightly harder than getting a U seat).

Having a look at the seat map there are 4 seats allocated in F, so not a lot of seats sold... hopefully they don't sell any more just for my sake ;-)

 

[wafliron]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

For those who may or may not be interested.

Thanks for compiling that data and posting it - really interested, particularly all the changes three days out.

Incidentally my upgrade from L to J (or W) has not cleared as yet. (its not quite 24 hours) but being a pessimist I'm thinking ill have to enjoy the whY seat.

Surely you'd have a good shot at that J upgrade? Full Y, J6 and it looks they might've already processed a bunch of upgrades 3 days out (for CL/WP1/maybe WP I assume).

 

[pagingjoan]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

For those who may or may not be interested.....

A fascinating overview. Thank you for taking the trouble to post it.

 

[ReLoad]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Ok, so Upgrade confirmed with SMS text at T-22.5 Hours. (phew) 96k points poorer, but a hell of a lot happier.

Here is the VERY interesting thing.
The actual Classes available have not changed one bit. its still showing exactly the same availability for the last 24 hours.
This makes me wonder - had they pre allocated me to get a J class seat? just didn't want to confirm it 100% in case someone turned up with a pile of cash in the last few hours?

Anyway, it all makes for some interesting analysis, I'm going to leave the script running to see what classes change right up until departure.
I'm in 18B for the flight, no other seats available for selection, which is another interesting point given the seat availability chart above.

Lastly, my old seat 53K, is showing as blocked now. I wonder why?

 

[transcon777]

Re: Upgrade O class SYD-HKG to Business

Hi AFF'ers.

Looking for some help if possible please!

Just booked a YASA, DUB-LHR-SIN-ADL.

QF10 16/MAY
QF82 17/MAY

As a SG I've requested an upgrade for both legs into J, Y+ for QF10 if J doesn't clear.
I can change the ticket for €100 to either QF2 LHR-SIN or QF6 FRA-SIN both on the 16/MAY if the loads look better, it'd be worth the €100 if the UG comes thru.

Thanks in advance guys!

 

[medhead]

I was just wanting to confirm the negative. If the magical extra segment, stating U class waitlisted, appears in my QF booking but then disappears, that means no upgrade? Correct?


Sent from the Throne

 

[serfty]

I was just wanting to confirm the negative. If the magical extra segment, stating U class waitlisted, appears in my QF booking but then disappears, that means no upgrade? Correct?...

Presumably an international flight?

How long before it's scheduled to depart?

 

[medhead]

Presumably an international flight?

How long before it's scheduled to depart?

Yes an international flight. Hence I have no idea about what should happen. 25 hours until departure.


Sent from the Throne

 

[serfty]

Yes an international flight. Hence I have no idea about what should happen. 25 hours until departure.
...

Look like you missed on that sweep.

Maybe closer to the time - how much I is available? D?

 

[medhead]

Look like you missed on that sweep.

Maybe closer to the time - how much I is available? D?

There's no I available, hasn't been for a couple of weeks. It was J8 C2 when the extra segment appeared last night. That's changed to J3 C1 this morning. I've been following that as well and the J C and D buckets have changed around a bit over the last week or so. BTW QF1 on 10 May.

Actually, the F J and PE cabins are full (as in seats allocated) no F or PE fare availability.

Also Y down to N are all 9, then Q4 O9 X5. No op ups from that. I currently have 71D with an X in 71E, seems good to me.

Oh well, looks like I get to use the points towards a JASA or 2. *shrug*


Update: the extra segment appeared again this morning, but has disappeared now. Currently J4. Just waiting for the [-]rude[/-] First check in lady to let me check in at 12:10. Not overtly rude, [-]but they took great pleasure in telling me to go away[/-]. [-]Makes me wish I had of just worn the shirt with stains from last nights dinner instead of putting on a clean shirt.[/-] Sure I was pushing the limits by trying to check in early [-]but there is no need to be a smug [insert descriptor] about it[/-].

Further edit: I need to take back many of my bad words. The first lady turned out to be wonderful when she eventually checked me in. After posting various unneeded clothes home I went and sat in the chairs in the first check in area. When the flight opening she came over to get me and looked after me very well. Once again I flew off the handle without thinking.

 

[Katie]

Can anyone guess/divine through their wisdom my likelihood for Y+ (T) to J upgrade on QF15 on Sun 13/5? I put my request in last week, after realising the aircraft probably won't change back to a high J config.
Last week's availability on FlightStats:
J9 C9 D9 I0 U0 (W9 R9 T0 - lots of availability in Y - 9s all the way down to O and X)

This morning's availability:
J9 C3 D0 I0 U0 (W9 R6 T0 - but only about 3 seats showing avail in the Y+ cabin; Y - 9s from Y-O, fwiw).

Pretty darn unlikely, huh?

 

[ozmille]

Can anyone guess/divine through their wisdom my likelihood for Y+ (T) to J upgrade on QF15 on Sun 13/5? I put my request in last week, after realising the aircraft probably won't change back to a high J config.
Last week's availability on FlightStats:
J9 C9 D9 I0 U0 (W9 R9 T0 - lots of availability in Y - 9s all the way down to O and X)

This morning's availability:
J9 C3 D0 I0 U0 (W9 R6 T0 - but only about 3 seats showing avail in the Y+ cabin; Y - 9s from Y-O, fwiw).

Pretty darn unlikely, huh?

Looks like it is a 4 class 747. I think a points upgrade is still on the cards as long as they have seats available and you are WP

 

[wafliron]

Anyone want to predict the chances of my J->F upgrade clearing for QF11 on 30/05? Current loading are:

F9 A6 J9 C9 D9 I9 W9 R9 T9 Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S9 N9 Q6 G0 X5 E0

F seatmap suggests 5 out of 14 seats occupied. J seatmap suggests cabin is about 60% full (to gauge how much "competition" I might be facing). As noted in my profile I'm WP, but unfortunately only got my upgrade request in around the start of May (1 month out).

 

[ashnmar]

Seat Availability SQ212 June 24 2012

Hi
Can anyone assist me?
Would like to know how full is the Singapore Airlines flight SQ212 depart Sydney June 24 2012

Business (J)
Economy (Y)

Thanks in advance