New Oz PM

[Mal]

I find it amusing that a party with some fairly strong republican leanings thinks it is acceptable to just appoint a new PM - it's a bit like having a King or Queen again...

Queensland is stuck with "Anna Blight", the premier who wasn't (originally) voted in, but gifted the premiership by the departing Peter Beattie.

So Labor do enjoy this type of behaviour.

 

[notzac]

My political convictions are shaky at best, but I think Ms Gillard is certainly more interesting than Mr Rudd - I look forward to seeing what happens over the next few months. I don't have any real problems with the leadership change; after all, Kevin Rudd's name didn't appear on the ballot paper I wrote on. The party that won the election realised their leader had a serious case of USI and replaced him; to me that says that the party is at least prepared to Do Something(tm) when stuff doesn't go as planned.

I just hope that she gets a chance to prove herself one way or another. I don't think she will, but one can hope.

 

[odysseus]

Have to wonder of that was a core promise?

Err, wrong party.

(followed up by only statements that are written can be taken as promises.)

 

[odysseus]

Best way to get your views heard is to get involoved in the process rather than slink away somewhere and complain you are powerless!!!!

And then get turfed out when they don't want to hear from you any more... it's understandable members of the public turn away from such tactics.

 

[coyote25]

Tanner going is unfortunate he actually was a workhouse - finance is the hard working job in government with little public profile



Sent from my iPod touch using AustFreqFly

 

[Hvr]

Well with Julia having been elevated to the PM role, the mad monk (Abbott) will be safe as opposition leader until mid next term when they replace him for someone who is palatable to the general public as an alternative PM for the election in 2013.

 

[nlagalle]

Well with Julia having been elevated to the PM role, the mad monk (Abbott) will be safe as opposition leader until mid next term when they replace him for someone who is palatable to the general public as an alternative PM for the election in 2013.

Some of the early polls indicate it has made no real change for Labor.. I'll be interested in seeing how it goes in a month.

 

[nlagalle]

Given the requirement for an election before the end of the year, it does not take a psychic to draw a target around October on the Electoral Commission's calendar. Now how long is the typical honeymoon period of a new leader?

2-4 months for the honeymoon periods.

The initial thoughts i had heard through work was late August early September. However I am guessing this could possibly change.

I'm guessing early September or late October. November is no good as Victoria goes to the polls and it would affect them as Labor are also on the nose in Vic. Late September is football finals, and early October is the Commonwealth Games. Although campaigning through the Games could be tricky.

 

[Hvr]

Some of the early polls indicate it has made no real change for Labor.. I'll be interested in seeing how it goes in a month.

I.E. they would have won if Kevin had stayed in the role.

Now we have three consecutive PMs who have all made history:
John Howard, only the second PM to lose his seat at an election.
Kevin Rudd, first first term PM deposed.
Julia Gillard first female PM.

 

[nlagalle]

I.E. they would have won if Kevin had stayed in the role.

No, it was very likely Labor would lose the election.

I just saw another poll that says its 52/48. give it another month and see how it goes..

 

[drron]

No, it was very likely Labor would lose the election.

I just saw another poll that says its 52/48. give it another month and see how it goes..

The last Newspoll before Kevin was executed showed Labor leading on 2 party preferred 52-48%.They weren't going to lose from there.The betting shops had Labor at 1.50,Libs at 2.50.So the facts supported a Krudd win.
Interestingly on Lateline last night when Chris Bowen was asked what about the Labor program that needed to be changed in the national interest he couldn't come up with anything.Not surprising as JG was part of the Gang of 4 responsible for all the current Labor policies.
As to the date I repeat what I said before-polling booths have been told to keep the 6 weeks mid-September to end October on hold.

 

[Keith009]

Whilst I have mixed feelings about the implications for Brand Labor in regards to dumping a first term Labor PM, I believe it was the right thing to do. Regardless of the increasing Presidential, personality-based nature of Australian politics, the public doesn't directly elect the PM and instead gives a mandate to the party which commands the confidence of Parliament to elect the PM.

And drron - you of all people should know that Newspoll isn't indicative of people's intentions where it matters. Internal party polling showed a possible wipe out in key seats. Unlike the majority that the Howard government enjoyed in its first term which was enough to withstand a strong swing against them, the ALP didn't exactly win an emphatic numerical victory in the last election. Very small swing required to change government. Had Rudd continued his autocratic approach with border protection and the resources tax, Labor would've faced a near-certain defeat based on NSW and QLD (I hesitant to add WA as it seems to be staunchly Liberal anyway), not to mention outer suburban seats everywhere.

JG might have been part of the "kitchen cabinet" but the difference is her more relaxed and consultative approach to policy, and her ability to cut through to the public. And as a political move, it was both elegant and devastating.

 

[codash1099]

Some of the early polls indicate it has made no real change for Labor.. I'll be interested in seeing how it goes in a month.

Nielsen and Galaxy released this morning would indicate a real lift for Labor. Honeymonn effect perhaps but it may last long enough for JG to take advantage of it.

 

[nlagalle]

Nielsen and Galaxy released this morning would indicate a real lift for Labor. Honeymonn effect perhaps but it may last long enough for JG to take advantage of it.

Yes those polls came out after i posted! Intersting though that on many news sites their polls show more people would vote for Tony then Julia.

Also the 2PP is based on current preferences, which doesn't take into account any changes planned by the Greens to change their preferences. That would impact Labor.

 

[NM]

I.E. they would have won if Kevin had stayed in the role.

Now we have three consecutive PMs who have all made history:
John Howard, only the second PM to lose his seat at an election.
Kevin Rudd, first first term PM deposed.
Julia Gillard first female PM.

And Julia Gillard could also become the shortest serving PM.

 

[nlagalle]

And Julia Gillard could also become the shortest serving PM.

She's got less than a week to get the knife then! Frank Forde was 8 days:

Prime Minister of Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[NM]

She's got less than a week to get the knife then! Frank Forde was 8 days:

Prime Minister of Australia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hmm, maybe second shortest then (perhaps in duration and altitude)

 

[oz_mark]

Whilst I have mixed feelings about the implications for Brand Labor in regards to dumping a first term Labor PM, I believe it was the right thing to do. Regardless of the increasing Presidential, personality-based nature of Australian politics, the public doesn't directly elect the PM and instead gives a mandate to the party which commands the confidence of Parliament to elect the PM.

I would be inclined to say that, if anything, the vast majority of voters vote on party lines, regardless of who is leader.

Arguing on personalities, you could equally argue that the last election could be a "No more John" vote.

 

[drron]

Whilst I have mixed feelings about the implications for Brand Labor in regards to dumping a first term Labor PM, I believe it was the right thing to do. Regardless of the increasing Presidential, personality-based nature of Australian politics, the public doesn't directly elect the PM and instead gives a mandate to the party which commands the confidence of Parliament to elect the PM.

And drron - you of all people should know that Newspoll isn't indicative of people's intentions where it matters. Internal party polling showed a possible wipe out in key seats.

JG might have been part of the "kitchen cabinet" but the difference is her more relaxed and consultative approach to policy, and her ability to cut through to the public. And as a political move, it was both elegant and devastating.

Actually I believe the key party polling was that done by Sussex street which was not about voting intentions per se but on what people thought of the various possible leaders and Krudd came out as arrogant and weak.
As to the Kitchen cabinet there are some reports now that it was WS and JG that really wanted the RSPT not Krudd.So they brought on the problem and then become the 2 leaders.Hmmm.

 

[pauly7]

I'm guessing early September or late October. November is no good as Victoria goes to the polls and it would affect them as Labor are also on the nose in Vic. Late September is football finals, and early October is the Commonwealth Games. Although campaigning through the Games could be tricky.

There are two windows now she has ruled out 2011.

August and October.

Everyone in advertising land has already locked away their media