New Oz PM

[serfty]

The real issue was with the non public polling commissioned by Labour. While the Published polls indicated a win under KRudd10, this internal party polling was indicating the loss of at least 18 labor seats - well more than the 13 required to change government.

Currently, neither party should get their hopes up on todays published Galaxy poll - there's a ±3½% (or a 7% range) margin of error in that.

As for Monday's Newspoll published earlier this week, it had a ±3% margin of error. As noted there also is an issue in the distribution of preferences from the 25% of voters who indicated neither The Coalition or Labour. For the published two party preferred, it was based on how these flowed in 2007 election. Note there were 14.6% of primaray votes redistributed in 2007.

Note the Nielson poll two weeks ago was different from the Newspoll in that it asked respondents who they'd preference. This gave a 47% Labour/53% Coalition two party preferred split, rather than 52%/48% if using the 2007 distribution. Of course, this is still within the margin of error.

 

[Alanslegal]

I'm pro-Labor but mainly because of the Coalitions far right views on immigration. You see, my family are refugees and if it wasn't for the Labor party and their policies at the time, our family would not be here in Australia :!:

My parents have worked hard and managed to run a successful business, to support all of the children (5 of us) enough to study hard and all complete at least tertiary degrees.

Sadly, under the Coalition - they love to scare monger and that su*ks - and my family would have been classed 'queue jumpers, potential terrorists, who throw their kids (which would have been me and my siblings) into the high-seas because it was fun to do so'.

Anyway, if we go to a Coalition govt, I know what I need to do to not support them (even if it meant I'm only a very minute % of the entire population).

Apart from that, the economy is fantastic and going to rebound from the GFC with vibrant colours and all thanks to the stimulus and Labor's economic management - something mainstream media should have to realise objectively than use their pre-historic subjective views.

 

[drron]

Apart from that, the economy is fantastic and going to rebound from the GFC with vibrant colours and all thanks to the stimulus and Labor's economic management - something mainstream media should have to realise objectively than use their pre-historic subjective views.

Good to see such optimism.Unfortunately I still believe(probably because I am older)that debt is going to be a major problem globally.I fully expect another probably more severe downturn-but it still may be a few years away.When it comes though Australia is in a much more exposed position because of the stimulus.Debt is a problem here-though most is private debt.Our banks though are up to their eyeballs in foreign debt.
This is amongst some of the overseas views on australia-

But slightly long-term markets may begin to look more closely at the fundamentals of this economy and ask themselves two questions:

1. Whether the surge of mining investment, now set to resume after various cancellations, actual or rhetorical, will set the stage for a minerals price bust such as seen a decade ago. Chinese demand will not grow exponentially forever.
2. Whether sustained over-valuation of the Aussie dollar and sustained over-borrowing by Australian households is not setting the stage for a currency collapse back to 65 US cents or even the 48 cents of 2002 but also a crisis for Aussie banks. They escaped the last big banking bust because they were not big players in New York/London derivatives. But large chunks of their loans to highly indebted Australian households are funded not from domestic deposits but wholesale offshore borrowing

Comes from here-
Asia Sentinel - Australia's Miners Extract a Prime Minister

So it is possible Labor might be making the right decision for the short term but if there is a bust in the next 3 years they may see themselves again wiped out for a generation.

 

[Dee Thom]

So it is possible Labor might be making the right decision for the short term but if there is a bust in the next 3 years they may see themselves again wiped out for a generation.

Good article, I would like to see the Aussie Dollar hang around the 70/75 cent mark. Mining and rural exports would stay high, and profits and tax's would remain stable, probably helping the Gov't through their various layered tax system.
Yes, I do worry about our countries debt, and during the past forty odd years have seen three/four Labour Governments lead Australia down the path of debt in very quick succession.
Lets hope JG and her team don't run into Tirath Khemlani during their wanderings.......

Cheers Dee

 

[medhead]

Yes, I do worry about our countries debt, and during the past forty odd years have seen three/four Labour Governments lead Australia down the path of debt in very quick succession.
Lets hope JG and her team don't run into Tirath Khemlani during their wanderings.......

Cheers Dee

Four labour governments in the last forty years? Which was the 4th cause there were only 3 that I can count.

Besides that minor thing, debt is a worry but our debt levels are nothing compared to the USA. It is that debt that concerns me the most. We can weather out the modest levels of debt in Australia but if the US goes down, or EU, we'll all be ruined!

Another thing is how everyone likes to go on about the ALP and debt. But ignore the gearing they have in their investments or that most companies run on a preset debt ratio. So some government debt seem an acceptable norm to me. We can compare that the the Howard government's economically stupid idea to totally close the government bond market. Good idea close down the basis for pricing debt. Not!

And what is our debt now something like 13 billion. Makes the 1bil khemlani loan look insignificant. lol

 

[serfty]

...
And what is our debt now something like 13 billion. Makes the 1bil khemlani loan look insignificant. lol

Not that insignificant - 1n 1975 1B would go a lot further than 1B would today.

GDP in 1975 was ~$84B

GDP in 2010 est. ~$1,116B

 

[Durin's Bane]

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the coming weeks with respect to the RSPT.

Working in mining construction where our clients (including BHPB and RTIO) have put on hold numerous projects in concept, feasibility and definitive study phase, the RSPT is hitting close to home. The project I'm on has been delayed until further notice, and we cannot ramp up for implementation anytime soon.

If the RSPT isn't radically changed or removed altogether there will certainly be electoral ramifications, especially in WA and QLD.

 

[medhead]

It will be interesting to see what transpires over the coming weeks with respect to the RSPT.

Working in mining construction where our clients (including BHPB and RTIO) have put on hold numerous projects in concept, feasibility and definitive study phase, the RSPT is hitting close to home. The project I'm on has been delayed until further notice, and we cannot ramp up for implementation anytime soon.

If the RSPT isn't radically changed or removed altogether there will certainly be electoral ramifications, especially in WA and QLD.

This aspect of mining companies not going ahead with new projects is one of the things that don't add up with their opposition to the RSPT. On the one hand the tax is unfair on existing project because new projects get tooich of an advantage. But on the other hand they aren't going to go ahead with these unfairly advantaged projects.

As for the tax it'll be redone with industry consultation. That much is clear.

 

[Skoogle]

I'm pro-Labor but mainly because of the Coalitions far right views on immigration. You see, my family are refugees and if it wasn't for the Labor party and their policies at the time, our family would not be here in Australia

Out of interest, what were the Coalition policies in the same era that you made the trip?

 

[medhead]

Out of interest, what were the Coalition policies in the same era that you made the trip?

I'm not sure that is relevant. The coalition policy now is the issue.

 

[oz_mark]

I'm pro-Labor but mainly because of the Coalitions far right views on immigration. You see, my family are refugees and if it wasn't for the Labor party and their policies at the time, our family would not be here in Australia :!:

While there is no detail about how they are going to achieve it, the new PM has signalled a reduction in immigration. Gillard rejects 'big Australia'

 

[oz_mark]

Apart from that, the economy is fantastic and going to rebound from the GFC with vibrant colours and all thanks to the stimulus and Labor's economic management - something mainstream media should have to realise objectively than use their pre-historic subjective views.

Except that due to the stimulus, they are seeking ways to plug the hole in the budget. Hardly sound economic management.

 

[Flashback]

News just in. I'm going to run for PM.

 

[medhead]

Except that due to the stimulus, they are seeking ways to plug the hole in the budget. Hardly sound economic management.

I'm sure that is not want you intended to write. But on face value i can only reply: I think that seeking to plug the budget hole is sound economic management

 

[Skoogle]

I'm not sure that is relevant. The coalition policy now is the issue.

The policy under discussion changed this week for the sitting government.

It is relevant to know if people follow a policy they believe in, or if they follow a party for some historic reason.

 

[Dee Thom]

Four labour governments in the last forty years? Which was the 4th cause there were only 3 that I can count. l

How soon we forget !
Whitlam
Hawk/Keating
GRudd

Cheers Dee

 

[Flashback]

How soon we forget !
Whitlam
Hawk/Keating
GRudd

Cheers Dee

Dee? Hello tharr!

 

[Dee Thom]

News just in. I'm going to run for PM.

Can I be your treasurer and best buddy ?

Cheers Dee

 

[Flashback]

Can I be your treasurer and best buddy ?

Cheers Dee

Oic............ yessir! you're in.

 

[straitman]

Except that due to the stimulus, they are seeking ways to plug the hole in the budget. Hardly sound economic management.

I'm sure that is not want you intended to write. But on face value i can only reply: I think that seeking to plug the budget hole is sound economic management

I read what was written and understood what was meant :!: