As bad as the polls are for the ALP, I think the leadership speculation could be a bit of a red herring. After hearing that Barry Cassidy is now 'convinced' that Gillard won't survive as PM to contest the next election if think that its most likely that she will stay as leader of the ALP, and will lead the ALP to defeat at the next election.
I do know that they will need to get the jaws of life out to extract Gillard from the daily ritual of the school visit and into the party room for a leadership ballot or resignation.
And not only because Barry Cassidy's political radar is totally out of tune with most politicians and the electorate, but also because the ALP party room has really no alternative left. They have trashed Rudd's reputation so comprehensively that all the coalitions electoral advertising material has already been written by Swan, Conroy, Roxon, Burke etc - which only seems to improve his public standing. As for other possibilities - its so bad for the ALP now that Shorten, Smith, Bowen and Combet won't want to poison their own future political careers by being the caretaker that takes the ALP off the cliff electorally. Most of the other loyal 'steady hands' or adults in the ALP such as Crean, Tanner, Fergusen, Bowen, McClelland etc whom would be prepared to try to save the furniture have been forced out or have left the ministry or may be too disillusioned to try.
I can buy into the "self interest" argument that some commentators argue that as the impeding doom gets closer more and more ALP members and senators can see their own political futures coming to an end then they may resort to some sort of desperate/machivellian leadership change but I just cannot see whom wants to stand up and challenge Gillard before getting a chance to lead the party to anialation.
Basically - at the moment no-one wants the leadership. After the election - we will just have to see who holds their seats and who doesn't to see how the future of the ALP plays out.... could go anywhere from a "clean out" of union influence, a split or a formal coalition with the greens.....
