Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Pukka]

There is a G20 summit in August that I'm thinking Rudd might think it worthy of his attendance so I'm guessing the election won't be before then?

Yes I'm sure Kevin 747 flies again as long as they have hair driers and meals that meet with his approval

 

[Pushka]

Wonder if he can go once the writs have been issued? If not then the election will be later. Rudd would go to the opening of an envelope if it involved an overseas trip. Maybe he should post here and tell us about CL.

I doubt he could go as it would then be electioneering. But if it was at all possible he'd be there.

At last we have some common ground.

 

[Skyring]

Wonder if he can go once the writs have been issued? If not then the election will be later. Rudd would go to the opening of an envelope if it involved an overseas trip. Maybe he should post here and tell us about CL.

The 2014 event will be in Brisbane. Rudd would cream himself at hosting that event in his home town.

I think Rudd's best strategy would be to hold an early election while the gloss is on - the polls are going to lift for him in a week or two and go in mid-August. He would then attend G20 as a newly-elected head of government, fresh and full of energy. If he wins the election, which is a big ask.

Personally, I don't think he can win, but I know he'd love to do the G-20, so he could hold off on the election until October or November and use the G-20 thing as a profile raiser. IMHO, that would sink him. The more time he spends in Parliament, the more time Tony Abbott has to send more well-aimed shots his way, the more time the PM's office has to again become dysfunctional, the more time the front bench has to make blunders.

And the G-20 will inevitably evoke memories of the Copenhagen thing, where he called the Chinese a bunch of rat-fathers.

The thing is that Rudd is confident he can win. He's never lost an election. He's had a modest flick of approval from the ALP, but he thinks that they were voting for him. They weren't. They were voting for themselves, in an effort to hang onto their cushy jobs when it was plain that Gillard was a disaster. They rejected Rudd three times previously - why on earth would they vote for him now if they weren't desperate?

 

[Skyring]

Wise words of wisdom from a wise woman. Annabel Crabb is a perceptive journo.

The questions Kevin Rudd now has to answer - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Many commentators scored yesterday's QT as a win for Rudd. I disagree. I saw TA sending carefully-aimed shots at Rudd, questions aimed at his personal and policy shortcomings. Rudd ignored them, but the real targets were the backbenchers. You could see that the exact same questions were bothering them. Rudd delivered a string of disasters in 2010 in the same circumstances, with TA poking his finger into every Rudd vulnerability. Will it happen again, this time with yet more blood on their hands, this time with the Libs using the Labor big guns as his advertising troops?

You've got to admit, when Labor's own heavies are delivering scathing criticism of Rudd, it kind of puts the mockers on party solidarity. Have they suddenly changed their minds after three years of bitter criticism? Who would be stupid enough to believe that? Apart from one-eyed rusted-on bone-heads.

No, it was Question Time yesterday all right. But definitely not Answer Time. And you may be sure that when Rudd deflects a question it's because he knows that if he answers it and tells the truth about his disloyalty, his failed asylum-seeker policy, his climate change moral challenge, his management style, he'll spit his dummy so far it will leave a wet little stain on the far wall, dropping down into Craig Thomson's murky lap.

And that's another ticking time-bomb, right there.

What I loved:

One thing is plainly apparent from Mr Rudd's late night press statement, during which - despite his considerable reputation as a self-interrogator - the above questions were not put.It was evident from his opening line, which was the observation that "in recent years, politics has failed the Australian people".

 

[drron]

There is a G20 meeting in St.Petersburg on September 5-6.Not impossible that Mr.Rudd will have a later election so he can attend.
Good to see Senator Carr backing up what I have maintained for a few years.The boat arrivals are illegal and they are economic refugees.Our tribunals are too weak.
Meanwhile 3 boats and 200+ more arrived on Rudd's first day as PM.

The first day of question time certainly showed the Rudd style for the campaign.Dont answer any difficult questions.

 

[Pushka]

I'm just betting there is a lot of Labor polling going on right now.

 

[JessicaTam]

I'm just betting there is a lot of Labor polling going on right now.

And LNP, no doubt. The floor has shifted slightly and it will take a while to see by how much.

 

[Pukka]

There is a G20 meeting in St.Petersburg on September 5-6.Not impossible that Mr.Rudd will have a later election so he can attend.
Good to see Senator Carr backing up what I have maintained for a few years.The boat arrivals are illegal and they are economic refugees.Our tribunals are too weak.
Meanwhile 3 boats and 200+ more arrived on Rudd's first day as PM.

The first day of question time certainly showed the Rudd style for the campaign.Dont answer any difficult questions.

He won't be able to resist swinging it at the G20

I thought he would go ASAP but he'll want to go to the G20 for sure, hopefully he's arrogant enough to think he's going to win so it won't matter

 

[amaroo]

I'm just betting there is a lot of Labor polling going on right now.

Watch the media change their focus and turn Abbott/Turnbull into a leadership saga.

 

[tgh]

Abbot is safe ( IMnsHO ) , and the media won't pursue a schism unless they find enough cracks to successfully drive a wedge.
He is also safe because LNP correctly read the tea leaves.
So often you will see females berating strong males as poor examples of "manliness" and then , conversely , select the same characteristics in preferred partners.
Some in the electorate want to bag him for the strong unwavering caveman leadership , but will then turn around and vote for him over a more consultative alternative.
It has always been so.. strong leaders thrive in times of adversity , wishy washy consultatives thrive when there is no threat.

 

[Skyring]

Watch the media change their focus and turn Abbott/Turnbull into a leadership saga.

Rudd tried that yesterday. The thing is that unlike the ALP, nobody in the Liberals is pushing for Turnbull. Maybe different if the Coalition's polling was below 30%. You get all sorts of desperation when that happens.

In comparison to Gillard (and obviously Rudd the first time) Abbott runs a pretty tight ship. There isn't much in the way of division or revolt.

 

[amaroo]

Rudd tried that yesterday. The thing is that unlike the ALP, nobody in the Liberals is pushing for Turnbull. Maybe different if the Coalition's polling was below 30%. You get all sorts of desperation when that happens.

In comparison to Gillard (and obviously Rudd the first time) Abbott runs a pretty tight ship. There isn't much in the way of division or revolt.

Depends if you believe the media report the news or make the news!

 

[BadgerBoi]

The thing is that unlike the ALP, nobody in the Liberals is pushing for Turnbull.

The thing is the media don't give a toss about that, they'll create a challenge out of thin air - it wouldn't be the first time. The LNP leader Rupert Murdoch is sitting in a dark room stroking a cat and plotting his next move as we speak.

 

[drron]

Funny how the perceived right wing zealots are often critiscised for TAs lack of policies even though he has released some and by tradition the Opposition doesn't release policies until the Campaign launch but those perceived as left wing zealots by those of the right have yet to demand to see Mr.Rudd's policies.He has spent 3 years plotting for this opportunity but it seems he is a policy free zone.
Says he will never challenge for the leadership-challenges.
Says he will work with business-then caves in to the unions over their xenophobic 457 claims.
Refuses to take questions from the press before and after the leadership meeting.
No press conference as is usual for a new PM.

Now tell me who are the hypocrites?

 

[Skyring]

Depends if you believe the media report the news or make the news!

Having been media, and spent some time hanging over the press gallery railing looking at Abbott and Turnbull, no, there's not a lot of making news going on. That sort of thing only goes so far, and journos making stuff up run very low on trust after a while.

When there's a push on, everybody knows it and the journos fall over each other to get the juiciest quotes.

Turnbull might display some selfish ego-centric behaviour from time to time, but he's not stupid. Neither are his colleagues. Well, desperation makes people do foolish things, but they aren't desperate.

 

[amaroo]

The thing is the media don't give a toss about that, they'll create a challenge out of thin air - it wouldn't be the first time. The LNP leader Rupert Murdoch is sitting in a dark room stroking a cat and plotting his next move as we speak.

Correct. No challenge - doesn't mean media wont speculate.

IMO it's a dead set certainty to occupy the morning radio & papers starting in a week or two.

 

[BadgerBoi]

Having been media, and spent some time hanging over the press gallery railing looking at Abbott and Turnbull, no, there's not a lot of making news going on. That sort of thing only goes so far, and journos making stuff up run very low on trust after a while.

There's a decent future for many of them in used car selling when they give up their day jobs and feel like a boost in their trustworthiness ratings.

 

[Moody]

Funny how the perceived right wing zealots are often critiscised for TAs lack of policies even though he has released some and by tradition the Opposition doesn't release policies until the Campaign launch but those perceived as left wing zealots by those of the right have yet to demand to see Mr.Rudd's policies.He has spent 3 years plotting for this opportunity but it seems he is a policy free zone.

Kevin Rudd has been in the job for 2 days and didn't have the numbers until a very short time before that (probably a matter of hours but at most days). I don't think he will go early because he needs time to calm the troops down and get the message drummed into them before launching the campaign. Tony Abbott has had more free kicks than David Beckham over the past 3 years and has not had to put his name against anything but slogans up to now ("Stop the boats" anyone?). I think he will wait longer to suss out any policy weakness from Labour, but his carping on about "Name the date" is already getting on my nerves. If he was smart he would release a policy or two and put Rudd on the back foot ... so that won't happen then.

Says he will never challenge for the leadership-challenges.

Julia Gillard called the spill, including the timing to try and stop Rudd getting momentum, so he didn't challenge. He was asked to be leader by the majority of his party ... it's how democracy works. Tony Abbott is leader of the opposition for the same reason (though with a closer margin at the time).

Says he will work with business-then caves in to the unions over their xenophobic 457 claims.

In what way (policy wise) has Labour caved in? What are the new requirements of businesses before they hire O/S employees? What is xenophobic about the union position?

Refuses to take questions from the press before and after the leadership meeting.
No press conference as is usual for a new PM.

Oh please! Did you see the gaggle of press that had been busy interviewing itself for four hours before, during and after the vote. I stayed mostly with the ABC but even they were getting on my nerves, and then ...... when Kevin Rudd finished his speech and handed over to Anthony Albanese THEY CUT HIM OFF!

The media can go take a running jump for all I care - they need a right royal reaming and I hope the next progressive government sorts them out.

Now tell me who are the hypocrites?

It's always been you, drron.

 

[eastwest101]

Kevin Rudd has been in the job for 2 days and didn't have the numbers until a very short time before that (probably a matter of hours but at most days). I don't think he will go early because he needs time to calm the troops down and get the message drummed into them before launching the campaign.

Sort of what I was saying - he has toppled the previous PM and has to put a team together and then review options/policies, sounds completely sensible to me, so again I ask - why the haste to get the 457 Legislation through?

Tony Abbott has had more free kicks than David Beckham over the past 3 years and has not had to put his name against anything but slogans up to now ("Stop the boats" anyone?).

I didn't see the media closely scrutinizing Kevin Rudd in the lead up to the 2007 election either.....

In what way (policy wise) has Labour caved in? What are the new requirements of businesses before they hire O/S employees? What is xenophobic about the union position?

Higher fees, more intrusive enforcement, vague definitions, and justified how again? Oh thats right - the minister responsible for the administration of the 457 scheme simply made stuff up.... If they had clearly said that employers must advertise first locally, then there is no argument there, but its been the rhetoric/spin and additional revenue raising that has probably upset the employer groups.

and then ...... when Kevin Rudd finished his speech and handed over to Anthony Albanese THEY CUT HIM OFF!

I agree with you - that was rude, amateurish and very unnecessary.

.. they need a right royal reaming and I hope the next progressive government sorts them out.

I would like to explore more about what your definition of "sorting them out" means without resorting to authoritarianism.

 

[Moody]

Sort of what I was saying - he has toppled the previous PM and has to put a team together and then review options/policies, sounds completely sensible to me, so again I ask - why the haste to get the 457 Legislation through?

Higher fees, more intrusive enforcement, vague definitions, and justified how again? Oh thats right - the minister responsible for the administration of the 457 scheme simply made stuff up.... If they had clearly said that employers must advertise first locally, then there is no argument there, but its been the rhetoric/spin and additional revenue raising that has probably upset the employer groups.

The changes were needed because the system was being abused - all the way to Parliament Hill according to the conservatives, but I have also seen it first hand. So now employers will have to pay more than lip-service to trying to find someone locally before importing cheap bodies, and also it will not be as cheap as before. Boo-hoo. If the businesses are motivated by filling a needed position rather than exploiting cheap imported labour, then they are still able to do that. It will be interesting to see the impact of this change, and anyway - it is much the same story as the tax system. Once a rort gets out of hand the government acts to close any loopholes and make sure the scheme is acting as intended. What else would you have them do?

I would like to explore more about what your definition of "sorting them out" means without resorting to authoritarianism.

We require corporations to comply with many consumer laws like truth in advertising, yet the media has no such requirement short of libel laws. Plus the concentration of media in this country is very worrying. I assume you are an avid viewer of Media Watch? If only half of what they say is true we have a very disfunctional media that is distorting society's values for their own benefit. I think it was a pity that Conroy so botched the drafting and negotiation of the recent legislation that it had to be shelved. Particularly hopeless seeing as the UK had just passed more stringent laws under a conservative prime minister.