Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Skyring]

Thanks for posting. I recommend watching the video....fascinating interview with Malcolm very confident with his predictions.

I see Malcolm now and then. He lives in the next suburb and our children attended the same school. Funny story - he was once asked to provide his footy tips, seeing as how he could predict election results. Big problem - he knows politicians and elections, but not football. So he enlisted the local school headmaster, who knew his stuff, and just passed on his tips. Came out looking good, adding to the legend.

I'll be interested to see how close Malcolm's predictions here match up to the real thing. He's pretty much put his finger on my own gut feelings, but he'll have the big data behind him and decades of practice.

The last few Senate seats are always a bit of a coughshoot - Malcolm has the Greens gaining one seat, which is actually a poor result on 2010, and three independents.

Looking forward to tomorrow night. I'm sure I'll like the result, but it's the theatre of it, the big egos crumbling, the party hacks at last able to speak the truth. Might be a few dummy spits to enjoy - they are always fun. Remember Cheryl Kernot?

 

[serfty]

... - they are always fun. Remember Cheryl Kernot?

.. and Maxine McKew in 2010 ...

 

[Pushka]

.. and Maxine McKew in 2010 ...

Yes. That was a rather impressive tanty. Not that it changed anything.

 

[Pukka]

I see Malcolm now and then. He lives in the next suburb and our children attended the same school. Funny story - he was once asked to provide his footy tips, seeing as how he could predict election results. Big problem - he knows politicians and elections, but not football. So he enlisted the local school headmaster, who knew his stuff, and just passed on his tips. Came out looking good, adding to the legend.

I'll be interested to see how close Malcolm's predictions here match up to the real thing. He's pretty much put his finger on my own gut feelings, but he'll have the big data behind him and decades of practice.

The last few Senate seats are always a bit of a coughshoot - Malcolm has the Greens gaining one seat, which is actually a poor result on 2010, and three independents.

Looking forward to tomorrow night. I'm sure I'll like the result, but it's the theatre of it, the big egos crumbling, the party hacks at last able to speak the truth. Might be a few dummy spits to enjoy - they are always fun. Remember Cheryl Kernot?

Well I hope he's right about Rudd losing his seat that would be well deserved.

 

[drsmithy]

Fair shake of the sauce bottle. This thread is riddled with unsubstantiated claims/thoughts on people from all political parties.

I was pointing out that criticising others for something you're also doing (then arguing it's different when you do it) is a tad hypocritical.

FWIW you've been pretty good at avoiding the rubbish and sticking to the point.......not many have achieved that!

Thank you.

 

[tgh]

I just experienced the high point of the election campaign... check it out.. the Bill Glasson vid.. one day more... solid gold.. made my day.

annnnddd o/t .. are the mods intending to let this thread run on to cheers and tears... or will some worthy contributor have the "honour" of saying thank you Umpires., thank you ball boys ..g.....etc etc.....

 

[NM]

This is very clever and they certainly went to a lot of effort to pull it together.

Video: Voice of Australia - Friday August 6th Part 3

 

[brett-au]

Hey, can anyone answer some of the following questions regarding the senate. I'm surprised how little I know about it.

* When Rudd called the election, what happens to the Senate. Are they still working?
* Can the senators still pass legislation after Rudd called the election (ie stuff that's completed the formalities of the lower house)?
* Why does it take so long for the senators to get into their seats (excluding ACT/NT)?

Things I have learnt
* A double dissolution gets rid of all Senators, not the most recent half or oldest half. Pretty powerful.
* The prime minster doesn't call an election for the senate. I believe it goes PM -> GG -> state governors and they issue writs for the election.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Hey only one more sleep!

 

[Skyring]

I just experienced the high point of the election campaign... check it out.. the Bill Glasson vid.. one day more... solid gold.. made my day.

annnnddd o/t .. are the mods intending to let this thread run on to cheers and tears... or will some worthy contributor have the "honour" of saying thank you Umpires., thank you ball boys ..g.....etc etc.....

I think we might indulge ourselves tomorrow night and make Sunday a day for summing up? This thing can't go on forever, even though the campaign seems to have been a fixture for years.

 

[777]

If my decision was based on policy, then I'd be inclined to vote Labor too.

Yep. And that's the irony. Liberals policies are a nonsense but there presentation is tight. Labor presentation is a shambles but their policies are realistic.

You can go back through this entire thread and i don't think i've said a word about the personality of Kevin, Julia or Tony. I don't really care.

 

[Warks]

Hey, can anyone answer some of the following questions regarding the senate. I'm surprised how little I know about it.

* When Rudd called the election, what happens to the Senate. Are they still working?
* Can the senators still pass legislation after Rudd called the election (ie stuff that's completed the formalities of the lower house)?
* Why does it take so long for the senators to get into their seats (excluding ACT/NT)?

Things I have learnt
* A double dissolution gets rid of all Senators, not the most recent half or oldest half. Pretty powerful.
* The prime minster doesn't call an election for the senate. I believe it goes PM -> GG -> state governors and they issue writs for the election.

I don't know all the answers here but I do know Senators are elected for 6 years and their term is in financial years. So even if they lose their senate seat in this election they still sit in the Senate until the end of June 2014. A double dissolution does clear them all out - usually it's only half the senate every three years. Each state elects 12 senators so that's six at a time. Usually a DD is called when the senate blocks the same legislation from the govt three times. It's called a "double dissolution trigger" when a party (the govt) puts up something they know won't get through but they think the people will favour them so they use it to trigger the DD. I can't recall one since about 1984 but I may be wrong. They were big in the 70s.

The Senate is a funny beast - it's a creation of the Federation of Australia to keep the minor states happy thus Tasmania's population, which is smaller than western Sydney, elects as many senators as NSW. The votes of most of us probably only count in the Senate as 80% or so of us live in safe seats so our votes don't make much difference.

The Senate also contains a lot of characters who would probably be unelectable as local members. They only get in via "above the line" voting. I won't name names but you probably know who I mean.

 

[rogerkambah]

Remember Cheryl Kernot?

Cheryl who?

 

[amaroo]

I think we might indulge ourselves tomorrow night and make Sunday a day for summing up? This thing can't go on forever, even though the campaign seems to have been a fixture for years.

The thread is a one trick pony so Sunday seems to be a good day to bring the curtain down.

We're hosting a party tomorrow - so I should slap a self imposed embargo on posting:shock: Don't want to wake up Sunday with a headache and infraction notices.

 

[Skyring]

Well I hope he's right about Rudd losing his seat that would be well deserved.

It's plain that Rudd isn't going to win the election. It is also fairly predictable that he'll resign, rather than spend years of humiliation. So there will be a bye-election and many of the voters will be inclined to save themselves the trouble.

There's the national swing, the lack of any big rally in Queensland behind Rudd, and the fact that his LNP opponent has been highly visible in the seat and is quite a likeable guy. Ex-president of the AMA, not some random hack.

Having said that, I will believe it when I see it.

It would send a solid message to the ALP, I think - take more care when choosing your leaders. If a chap like Abbott can win six years after a landslide victory - and he came very close after three - then there's obviously a flaw in the way Labor leaders are chosen nowadays. Latham was a dud, Rudd quickly turned into a lemon, and Gillard became so hated that Rudd seemed attractive.

Is it a systemic failure, or just a string of bad die-rolls?

 

[tgh]

hmm riding high on the euphoria of the Glasson vid , I have already had a pre celebratory drinkie...hic...
Bubbly tomorrow night....

 

[Pukka]

Yep. And that's the irony. Liberals policies are a nonsense but there presentation is tight. Labor presentation is a shambles but their policies are realistic.

So what you're really saying here is that the Libs have handled the campaign in a professional well organized manner and the ALP are a complete shambles and the KRudd presidential it's all about me campaign has been a massive flop.

And yet you think the ALP will run the country better?

 

[rogerkambah]

This is very clever and they certainly went to a lot of effort to pull it together.

Video: Voice of Australia - Friday August 6th Part 3

That is wonderful and a very professional production!

 

[amaroo]

It's plain that Rudd isn't going to win the election. It is also fairly predictable that he'll resign, rather than spend years of humiliation. So there will be a bye-election and many of the voters will be inclined to save themselves the trouble.

There's the national swing, the lack of any big rally in Queensland behind Rudd, and the fact that his LNP opponent has been highly visible in the seat and is quite a likeable guy. Ex-president of the AMA, not some random hack.

Having said that, I will believe it when I see it.

It would send a solid message to the ALP, I think - take more care when choosing your leaders. If a chap like Abbott can win six years after a landslide victory - and he came very close after three - then there's obviously a flaw in the way Labor leaders are chosen nowadays. Latham was a dud, Rudd quickly turned into a lemon, and Gillard became so hated that Rudd seemed attractive.

Is it a systemic failure, or just a string of bad die-rolls?

Great summary.

Not sure it's an easy fix.....

Latham - no union background

Rudd - no union background

Gillard - quasi union background

Latham/Rudd were hated prior to gaining the leadership.....during.....after.

Gillard was/is loved before, during & after.

If they pooled their collective good into sourcing better non-union leaders - they could be extremely compelling.

 

[Pukka]

The thread is a one trick pony so Sunday seems to be a good day to bring the curtain down.

We're hosting a party tomorrow - so I should slap a self imposed embargo on posting:shock: Don't want to wake up Sunday with a headache and infraction notices.

Yes alcohol & posting here certainly don't mix I'm living proof of that