Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

The concern is that AUstralia might bend to WA because they want to open domestoc borders before international

Exactly and I actually think it will work because most Australians want all domestic borders open not international.... quite a cunning strategy.... have to hand it to WA...!

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Exactly and I actually think it will work because most Australians want all domestic borders open not international.... quite a cunning strategy.... have to hand it to WA...!

Not sure how it will play out, but a possibility is go to National Cabibet and announce 7/8 agree to further bubbles with 6/8 allowing two-way/one-way arrivals???

 

[antycbr]

Not sure how it will play out, but a possibility is go to National Cabibet and announce 7/8 agree to further bubbles with 6/8 allowing two-way/one-way arrivals???

NSW will lead the way again, just watch. I expect that NSW is working very closely with the Federal Government on this as the most internationally focussed economy, particularly international students. Given that National Cabinet no longer works on consensus then it's tough luck.

If I was Perth Airport you may as well bulldoze your international terminal right now.

 

[Bell21]

The Feds will absolutely NOT be blackmailed by WA. The hard border hurts them more than it will hurt the rest of the country.

Talks are well advanced with NZ on reciprocal two way travel.

Any thoughts on when reciprocal two way travel with NZ might open up? My sons are meant to be going on a fishing trip to NZ in early Jan but it feels a few months too early. Sorry if I missed any reference to NZ upthread.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Any thoughts on when reciprocal two way travel with NZ might open up? My sons are meant to be going on a fishing trip to NZ in early Jan but it feels a few months too early. Sorry if I missed any reference to NZ upthread.

No new news yet. Still officially a one way bubble on special quarantine-free flights to NSW and NT. On another thread it was mentioned that Qantas was earlier this month cancelling December flights to NZ - around the same time the bubble was announced.

 

[drron]

So the High Court case on borders has to continue.McGowan hopefully will not have any choice but to keep the borders open.

 

[jakeseven7]

So the High Court case on borders has to continue.McGowan hopefully will not have any choice but to keep the borders open.

Interesting how the super secret health advice changed miraculously right before the case is heard.... mmmmm

No new news yet. Still officially a one way bubble on special quarantine-free flights to NSW and NT. On another thread it was mentioned that Qantas was earlier this month cancelling December flights to NZ - around the same time the bubble was announced.

Any news on QLD being part of the upcoming bilateral bubble with NZ... so much focus is on domestic borders opening it’s hard to keep track...?!

 

[OZDUCK]

Interesting how the super secret health advice changed miraculously right before the case is heard.... mmmmm



Any news on QLD being part of the upcoming bilateral bubble with NZ... so much focus is on domestic borders opening it’s hard to keep track...?!

You may disagree with the health advice or the response to that health advice but it has never been secret let alone super secret in W.A.

 

[drron]

You may disagree with the health advice or the response to that health advice but it has never been secret let alone super secret in W.A.

I think it is still a secret.
We have not heard the medical evidence behind the decisions to close borders or deciding on the rules for reopening.Remember the Acting CMO for the Commonwealth is one of the most qualified epidemiologists and virologist in Australia.So I definitely would like to hear from the State CMO/CHOs why they consider he has been wrong in encouraging open borders.

 

[OZDUCK]

I think it is still a secret.
We have not heard the medical evidence behind the decisions to close borders or deciding on the rules for reopening.Remember the Acting CMO for the Commonwealth is one of the most qualified epidemiologists and virologist in Australia.So I definitely would like to hear from the State CMO/CHOs why they consider he has been wrong in encouraging open borders.

We are obviously going to remain in polite disagreement in this matter. As regards whether the Acting Commonwealth CMO was incorrect I am certainly no medical expert so I can't adjudicate between such opinions. What I can say is that I am happy that if the advice of the WA state CMO was the reason we have had in no community infections for over 6 months and no deaths at all from locally acquired infections then I am pleased with his advice. I can't see how opening the border would have resulted in a better result for cases of Covid-19 in WA. I am aware that there have been concerns about mental wellbeing during this period but WA seems not to have had the problems with entry exemptions that occurred in Qld but operated more on the Tasmanian lines. Concerns about mental wellbeing was mentioned in the CMO's recent advice to consider relaxing the border restrictions.

 

[drron]

sorry but correlation doesn't equate with causation.you really can't say that the result was from closing the borders.
And the Acting CMO is a world expert not just a WA expert.

 

[antycbr]

sorry but correlation doesn't equate with causation.you really can't say that the result was from closing the borders.
And the Acting CMO is a world expert not just a WA expert.

As an aside, we are truly gifted in Australia with our collection of Paul Kellys:

• AFL Footballer
• Musician
• Chief Medical Officer
• Serious Journalist

 

[OZDUCK]

sorry but correlation doesn't equate with causation.you really can't say that the result was from closing the borders.
And the Acting CMO is a world expert not just a WA expert.

I said that "I can't see how opening the border would have resulted in a better result for cases of Covid-19 in WA." and I honestly can't see what better result could have been achieved.

 

[antycbr]

I said that "I can't see how opening the border would have resulted in a better result for cases of Covid-19 in WA." and I honestly can't see what better result could have been achieved.

Like any metric, taken in isolation you can optimise it at whatever cost you are willing to bear.
Governments are expected to optimise more than one thing at a time.

You can implement measures for seasonal flu, road accidents, industrial accidents and achieve the an optimal result at enormous cost, but we look at the totality and decide the risk/reward benefit means we accept some risk. Given the risk of a widespread Covid-19 outbreak is vanishingly small in Australia, we need to start looking at more than one metric at once.

 

[drron]

I said that "I can't see how opening the border would have resulted in a better result for cases of Covid-19 in WA." and I honestly can't see what better result could have been achieved.

Simple.Just look at the results for Taiwan.Now just 554 cases,7 deaths and no local transmission for 200 days.Only minor lockdown measures and no internal closures in a nation of 23.6 million.

Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic Covid-19 infection

Authorities thank public for helping to reach milestone as cases surge in many countries

www.theguardian.com

Compare that to Western Australia- 768 cases and 9 deaths with a population of 2.5 million.
So if Taiwan was 2.5 million people they would have had approx 58 cases and 1 death.
Yes Australia have done well but that doesn't mean we couldn't have done better-excellent contact tracing,successful isolation policy,hand washing and mask wearing.

 

[Flashback]

So ......... new bets as to which date y'all will finally be allowed to leave Australia without asking mummy and daddy for permission?

 

[N860CR]

So ......... new bets as to which date y'all will finally be allowed to leave Australia without asking mummy and daddy for permission?

As sad as it is to give them credit, I do think the outcome of the Queensland election is going to be critical to this. Let’s say hypothetically Labor wins and AP persists with her unachievable 28 day rule. I suspect NSW will give up on Queensland altogether and reopen to Victoria 2 weeks after the date their restrictions lifted. This will basically cement that Qld won’t open to Sydney. The commonwealth government will then power on with attempts to open international border bubbles and QLD/WA will simply be ignored.

If the Libs win and they open the border (not saying that’s what they’ll do, but they seem the more likely party to do it), then I suspect we’ll see a delay in intl borders as there is more of a “light at the end of the tunnel” for domestic ones.

Just an opinion.

 

[Flashback]

Bubbles aside though, how could it be permission to leave .. to a 'friendly' place, and not permission to go anywhere you want internationally? Feels like a fine line to tread and surely the legality of the continued nanny state would have to be questioned?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So ......... new bets as to which date y'all will finally be allowed to leave Australia without asking mummy and daddy for permission?

Clearly your question is implying countries other than NZ.

It’s quite possible that if you mean Aussie don’t need to have permission to leave and have a free choice where to travel internationally, it will be a long time - well after a vaccine has been implemented.

If you mean a free choice between a small group of low risk countries/territories, then it might be a lot sooner.

 

[Flashback]

Clearly your question is implying countries other than NZ.

It’s quite possible that if you mean Aussie don’t need to have permission to leave and have a free choice where to travel internationally, it will be a long time - well after a vaccine has been implemented.

If you mean a free choice between a small group of low risk countries/territories, then it might be a lot sooner.

Correct, the first option you state - a world where you don't have to ask permission to leave your own country.