Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Correct, the first option you state - a world where you don't have to ask permission to leave your own country.

Free choice on where to go - 2023 a stab at July

 

[jb747]

The concern is that AUstralia might bend to WA because they want to open domestoc borders before international

I doubt it. How many people actually go to WA, compared to travel between the other states. Getting Qld, NSW, and Vic back together fixes about 90% of the domestic tourism issues.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I doubt it. How many people actually go to WA, compared to travel between the other states. Getting Qld, NSW, and Vic back together fixes about 90% of the domestic tourism issues.

If Qld do drop/soften their borders to NSW and Vic, then how much would be affected by holding a grudge???

 

[RAM]

i was surprised by this so googled and indeed there is a poll showing 60% of aussies want the international borders to stay closed.

However... I guess it depends on the question in the poll... if I asked 'do you support separating families from loved ones over Christmas' or 'do you agree vulnerable Australians should be prevented from coming home' the answer might have been different.

There has been nothing preventing 'vulnerable Australians' coming home other than inaction by the Federal Govt.

If the Feds actually wanted to bring them home (without gifting Q tens of millions of taxpayers' money) they could have done so back in July, August etc.

The weekly caps of arrivals allowed into Sydney, & the other two states (after Vic dropped out) were sufficient to have brought every one home by the first week of September (if started in August).

All that Scomo et al needed to do was actually be true to their word about actually closing the borders to only returning Australians. As at 31 July there were 18,800 (from memory) Australians registered with DFAT wanting to return within six months.

If international arrivals were limited to 'vulnerable Australians' registered with DFAT - they'd have been home two months ago.

The question the media appear should ask is "Why wasn't this solution implemented?"

Absolutely agree with you, no benefit in allowing us out, in fact in politician's warped minds, absolute benefit to keeping us caged in. By keeping us in, we will spend our big tourist dollars in our own state!. Instead of spending $8,000 going to Europe for three weeks, we will spend that here. In reality, and this really only holds for first year as we want to 'support' our state tourism breathren, and we will maybe spend $2,000 for a week and a half. After that (now) we will hold onto our pennies for the future.

Whilst they don't need us to leave, they NEED foreigners and tourists to come her, for:
IMMIGRATION - we don't grow we die.
STUDENTS - our universities are now based on being funded big time by foreign students, no foreign students long term universities will close.
TOURISM - you cannot replace international spend with locals lifting, refer above.

I'm being selfish, I know, in that I cannot holiday domestically and feel I have had a holiday, doesn't matter where I go. I'm prepared to wait to go on holidays, but I would like a timeframe so I can plan. Right now planning is like nothingness. May go quick trip somewhere maybe September next year if SE Asia opens up, if not price gouged by Qantas or whoever, otherwise July 2022 I'm off to France for a month.

Australia benefits even if you don't spend $1. You benefit from having greater savings or less debt.
In 2018/19 Australians spent over $65bn overseas. Foreigners spent less than $45bn (which includes assumed spending by foreign students other than on education fees BTW). What this year has revealed though it that a very high proportion of students were/are working 1 or more jobs to fund their stays (& fees) in Australia. So international tourism benefit is significantly less than assumed and deficit much larger.
Major donors to the political parties do not do so well - property developers (such as one very large one that sells 60+% to overseas, or some of the Chinese owned ones that typically sell 80+% to mainland Chinese), construction companies, major hardware chains, big banks...

The Feds will absolutely NOT be blackmailed by WA. The hard border hurts them more than it will hurt the rest of the country.

Actually the hard border is better for the WA economy than an open border - strange but true.

Equally, the closed international border is significantly better for the Australian economy. In 2018/19 we ran a travel/tourism deficit of more than $20bn - we spent more to go overseas etc than overseas tourists spent here (from National Accounts). So even if people who did not go overseas ended up not spending anything on domestic tourism - Australia is $20bn better off. That many are spending more on domestic tourism makes Australia even further ahead.

___________________________________​

There is a massive difference between what is said & what is done at the Federal Level, especially by Scomo.
The way the Liberal Party works is different to all other major parties (& minor ones) with the State level being a division of the Liberal Party of Australia.

So Scomo's declaration in the hours leading up to the Qld State Election was no coincidence, nor were WA's. They were all aimed at impacting on Qld. If you follow the (sometimes illegal) routing of political donations to the Liberal Party (search Operation Spicer for those not in NSW for example) it is very revealing. WA is a major source for the party - much greater than its GNP or population share in Australia. Equally, as lamented on above, State (& international) border closures are very popular with State voters. Now when is the WA State election again.....

Love your eternal optimism but the PM was crystal clear after National Cabinet - all domestic borders (except probably WA) open by Xmas, expansion of NZ bubble after that then other safe countries after that. All those ‘after that’s’ mean probably more like Q1/2 next year for any international travel bubbles at the very earliest I’m afraid....

The only thing that will make international bubbles open faster is if the domestic borders open faster AND we prove we can manage it without unmanageable outbreaks and hysterical snap border closure decisions when the inevitable cases start popping up around the place....

Same up here in QLD - it’s a ghost town in any areas with high hotel concentrations because we are still cut off from our two biggest markets - NSW and VIC on top of international. But it was heartening to hear all agreed (except probably WA) to have borders open by Christmas - that will inject a huge boost to these areas.

And if NZ goes bilateral early next year that is a big deal - they are our biggest international tourist market as well.

Scomo missed a few very important but unsaid words (perhaps Scomo said them under his breath?). You picked up on that omission but the media seemingly did not.

"Provided that there are no major outbreaks in the interim."

If there is one major outbreak then all bets are off.

 

[oznflfan]

Clearly your question is implying countries other than NZ.

It’s quite possible that if you mean Aussie don’t need to have permission to leave and have a free choice where to travel internationally, it will be a long time - well after a vaccine has been implemented.

If you mean a free choice between a small group of low risk countries/territories, then it might be a lot sooner.

Hoping to visit France July 2022 but not so sure this will be viable (although this is still well over 18 months away, and we can see how much has changed in just 8 months). Want to lock in something, so closer in, looking at Taiwan due to very low COVID numbers September next year. Hopefully this is authorised by Scomo early to mid next year. Maybe QANTAS with new Sydney - Taipei route won't rape and pillage us with airfares. First fares might be special(ish) to encourage flyers???

 

[RAM]

Fresh hope for interstate travel as Australian researchers develop rapid 15-minute COVID test

Scientists believe the prototype could help reignite interstate travel by assisting in the screening of travellers.

7news.com.au

UTS Researchers were able to develop the 15 minute COVID test. I am really hoping that this will be a game changer with the testing regime that we can roll out domestically first followed by our international arrivals from safe countries that we can allow to open faster.

Remember, we only have 5 months left for many businesses who rely on JobKeeper at the moment. In addition, international students are due to arrive Australia in February/March 2021, which is important for the HE sector to survive. I have already heard rumours of cuts to casuals and permanent staff at various institutions, and we desperately need these students to come back so that we can have a job.

So much spin about 'International Student numbers' & universities crying poor etc etc.

DFAT revealed the numbers a few days ago and, to me, they are nowhere near as bad as the Education lobby has made out. From memory (heard the figures in a news report) there were over 680,000 international students enrolled in Australia in August, a decline of 21% on the figures for August 2019 or around 180,000. The report then added that there was a decline in anticipated enrolments for 2020 due to sustained negative publicity in China by the Chinese media.

So the publicised claims of $35bn dollar industry at deaths door (& excuse for Universities to fire many staff) do not match the hard numbers.

Of most concern is the states that haven’t really been ‘tested’ (luckily for them in a way) like NT, Tassie, WA and SA.

There is real worry and questions being asked for example about WA’s ability to respond to an outbreak and perhaps this is the real reason they are being left out...

What you say about WA could not be further from the truth.

WA (& to a lesser extent Qld) have faced the worst battle to stop CV entering due to the hundreds of iron ore, coal, LNG, live animal export & other ships arriving every month. WA (& Qld) have managed to stop a single CV contamination with a pilot, tug or stevedore despite, at times, the entire crew being CV+. There has not really been much publicity about this (I wonder why not?).

If the ban leaving the country is for health grounds... how can they be letting in students?

How is it some citizens and PR holders - those that have been out of Australia for more than half of the previous 12 months - effectively have a revolving pass to leave and enter Australia? With no restrictions other than quarantine.

We need clear and transparent guidelines, and preferably, equality for everyone.

The Federal Govt (and opposition generally) are firm followers of the 'Animal Farm' doctrine:

"All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others!"

It will be interesting to see what the government decides on the priority order.

I know plenty of Australians that aren't too keen on getting the covid vaccination whereas they would for other things. Lots of people still refuse to get the flu vaccination. I know at first there will be shortages but I wonder how long that will last.

I've got my fingers crossed if a vaccine is available by the start of the year that I can get it mid next year.

Let's see, a bit like who's been allowed into Australia in preference to 'vulnerable Australians':

• Contacts
• Future employers
• Friends
• Friends of friends
• Party officials (going on holiday)
• ex-politicians
• Large donors (amazing how so many qualify both by girth & amount donated)
• Potentially useful contacts
• Media contacts who are sympathetic or have large audiences

Then if any left over - medical personnel with a media profile....

I am not a cynic, merely I know too much!

December 2020 ? I wish!

December Approval of Oxford vaccine means Australian maybe get a handful of doses by Jan 2021 for front line workers. Then it takes 2 to3 months to mass manufacture 20 m doses so vaccinations start from about April 2021.

I think if we are relying on vaccine to start international travel, that will be middle of next year. Just hoping some travel opens prior to vaccine

The major sticking point globally is the incredibly low temperatures they must be shipped & stored at prior to use.

"Most vaccines need to be stored within 1 degree Fahrenheit of their ideal temperature. Traditional vaccines are usually stored between 35 degrees Fahrenheit and 46 degrees Fahrenheit, but some of the leading COVID-19 vaccines need to be stored at much colder temperatures. Sep 18, 2020"

So not only is there a massive logistical issue with the sheer volumes, it is even worse in that the tranportation requires a temperature not previously required - so the equipment is not widely available for even 1% of the volume required.

Then add in storage requirements - you will not find many medical centres with either the required volume to store a large number of vaccine single dose vials/syringes let alone have the ability to store it at -73 Celsius etc.

There are not many manufacturers of this incredibly specialised storage equipment (capital equipment makers) as previously there was very limited demand for it. So far I have not seen a single article about any of the maybe 3 or 4 manufacturers in the world - building expanded facilities. Nor has any Govt been out talking up how they've purchased sufficient capacity to cope logisitically.

Sure, as certain drug companies have been stockpiling & enhancing shipping containers to store the vaccines being produced in advance - there is some ability but it is still around less than 1% of required doses. Australia appears still to sign any conract for supply (I may have missed a change but what was initially claimed as a contract was merely a letter of potential intent).

Given the high value of the vaccine - these shipping containers will require secure storage. Not something that even many major hospitals have on a shipping container scale.

CSL's ability to supply appears near zero within Australia as I cannot find any releases announcing the installation of the required specialist equipment. CSL did purchase a company that can produce such vaccine types - only problem is that it is located in the US and its scale is tiny.

Just as people have begin to have CV fatigue & have been neglecting social distancing, wearing masks - the Feds are playing a very dangerous game in providing unrealistic timeframes - domestic border openings, international border opening, vaccine availability, preparedness, etc etc.

Up until very recently the Fed Govt talk was based on the assumption that the vaccines will be 100% effective.
https://theconversation.com/keeping...hard-but-likely-key-to-ending-pandemic-146071

 

[OZDUCK]

Simple.Just look at the results for Taiwan.Now just 554 cases,7 deaths and no local transmission for 200 days.Only minor lockdown measures and no internal closures in a nation of 23.6 million.

Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic Covid-19 infection

Authorities thank public for helping to reach milestone as cases surge in many countries

www.theguardian.com

Compare that to Western Australia- 768 cases and 9 deaths with a population of 2.5 million.
So if Taiwan was 2.5 million people they would have had approx 58 cases and 1 death.
Yes Australia have done well but that doesn't mean we couldn't have done better-excellent contact tracing,successful isolation policy,hand washing and mask wearing.

There can be no possible argument that Taiwan has done a fabulous, probably world leading, job.

Edit: Doh - I meant to say - no possible argument but that -

 

[Flashback]

Hoping to visit France July 2022 but not so sure this will be viable (although this is still well over 18 months away, and we can see how much has changed in just 8 months). Want to lock in something, so closer in, looking at Taiwan due to very low COVID numbers September next year. Hopefully this is authorised by Scomo early to mid next year. Maybe QANTAS with new Sydney - Taipei route won't rape and pillage us with airfares. First fares might be special(ish) to encourage flyers???

There can be no possible argument that Taiwan has done a fabulous, probably world leading, job.

Fortunately Taiwan is a fantastic place to visit, went there for the first time last year between just before Christmas until NYE and thoroughly enjoyed it. Looking forward to going back one day.

 

[jgreenspoon]

On the vaccine front ahpra recently sent out emails to all registered nurses and midwives requesting they confirm if they are also registered immunisers (an additional short certification). These are staff that have historically been seconded to private businesses to administer flu vaccines to staff.

preparing for mass covid immunisation?

 

[OZDUCK]

Fortunately Taiwan is a fantastic place to visit, went there for the first time last year between just before Christmas until NYE and thoroughly enjoyed it. Looking forward to going back one day.

My son really enjoyed his trip there as well - it was made easier because his wife speaks Cantonese and some Mandarin.

 

[jb747]

If Qld do drop/soften their borders to NSW and Vic, then how much would be affected by holding a grudge???

I'm sure there will be some element of it. Possibly more concerning for people thinking about a holiday in Qld (especially a driving one), is whether the Queenslanders will actually make you welcome, or treat you like a zombie. For those flying, there will be concerns about the on/off nature of the border closures, and potential difficulty in getting home if they're closed again.

Equally, the closed international border is significantly better for the Australian economy. In 2018/19 we ran a travel/tourism deficit of more than $20bn - we spent more to go overseas etc than overseas tourists spent here (from National Accounts). So even if people who did not go overseas ended up not spending anything on domestic tourism - Australia is $20bn better off. That many are spending more on domestic tourism makes Australia even further ahead.

I would never spend even a fraction of what I budgeted for an overseas trip, on a trip within Oz. On the other hand, I might buy a new car, and last time I looked, we don't make any.

If Australians just stick their $20b in the bank, it won't help anyone.

The major sticking point globally is the incredibly low temperatures they must be shipped & stored at prior to use.

Open the door, it's pretty cold out there....

 

[jgreenspoon]

would never spend even a fraction of what I budgeted for an overseas trip, on a trip within Oz. On the other hand, I might buy a new car, and last time I looked, we don't make any.

Not only that but I’ve already had multiple discussions with people that feel they’ve done their dash with domestic travel and have spent enough.

we had a month in Hawaii booked but replaced it with a few short regional nsw trips. Those short trips all cost the same total amount as our one trip to Hawaii does but had nothing like the memories or joy.

We won’t be splashing cash on expensive Australian destinations anymore and I’d be surprised if the thirst of the general public doesn’t run out sooner rather than later at the prices we charge for a minimally different cultural experience

 

[N860CR]

Not only that but I’ve already had multiple discussions with people that feel they’ve done their dash with domestic travel and have spent enough.

we had a month in Hawaii booked but replaced it with a few short regional nsw trips. Those short trips all cost the same total amount as our one trip to Hawaii does but had nothing like the memories or joy.

I would agree. Having spent last week in Byron Bay catching up with friends from Queensland, I can pretty safely say I won’t be rushing to do a lot of travel at home. Probably a bad choice of location, but ordinary service, overpriced food and accommodation and overcrowding are enough to put me off.

Having ownership in a travel agency that organises African Safari’s, I can confirm as well that we are really not seeing (despite a big marketing attempt) a great deal of interest in domestic travel.

I get the feeling people will sit on their hands and wait.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

lots of home renovations / putting a deck on the back of the house etc this summer

 

[jakeseven7]

VIC now online with Singapore

Singapore border closures: Victorians now allowed into country with rest of Australia

While the rest of Australia keeps its borders closed to Victoria despite low COVID-19 numbers, Singapore has no such concerns.

www.traveller.com.au

 

[DC3]

.... Having spent last week in Byron Bay catching up with friends from Queensland, I can pretty safely say I won’t be rushing to do a lot of travel at home. Probably a bad choice of location, but ordinary service, overpriced food and accommodation and overcrowding are enough to put me off.

Many of us have probably made the same mistake. Nothing at Byron Bay to warrant ever going back.

 

[jb747]

I'm in the process of loading up my caravan for a week away from home. All in small places in Victoria, where I'll see a couple of painted silos, and, if possible, have a couple of pub meals. I'd be surprised if we spend $500 for the week, including fuel.

 

[ayushamity]

COVID-19 vaccine could be rolled out in Australia in March

Health Minister Greg Hunt said Australian company CSL - the one manufacturing the Oxford University AstraZeneca vaccine domestically - are set to start producing the drug in November.

www.dailymail.co.uk

While it's promising that Australia will start producing the Oxford Vax this month and is spreading it's risk by securing deals with other vaccines, what kind of nonsense mumbo jumbo BS is this that borders will only open after most of Aussies have been vaccinated by end of next year ???


''He said getting vaccinations to as many Australians as possible raised the possibility of opening the nation's borders by the end of next year.

Two-thirds of the population would need to be vaccinated to keep the country safe from the virus when borders are reopened, Mr Hunt said. ''

I thought the deal was that if you get vaccinated, you can leave and if people in the USA/UK get vaccinated (will be much earlier than Australia due to they having access to more number of vaccines there), they can come here. Vaccine is supposed to be the silver bullet, not that we are reliant on other Aussies to get vaccinated.

 

[ayushamity]

From a more reputable source,

Australia to start manufacturing COVID vaccine as rollout plan is revealed

The nation is set to begin manufacturing the vaccine this month as the health minister reveals when international borders are set to open.

7news.com.au

Crystal clear comments

All other Australians could receive the jab in the months after, to the end of 2021 - around the same time the government hopes to re-open international borders.

Our goal is to have the borders open, subject to vaccination and health advice, by the end of 2021.”

These guys for real ???

 

[RAM]

VIC now online with Singapore

Singapore border closures: Victorians now allowed into country with rest of Australia

While the rest of Australia keeps its borders closed to Victoria despite low COVID-19 numbers, Singapore has no such concerns.

www.traveller.com.au

And this just in today from Singapore - someone up these does not like us (you pick the direction )
Singapore reports 14 new COVID-19 infections, including 2 community cases who work at Changi Airport

From a more reputable source,

Australia to start manufacturing COVID vaccine as rollout plan is revealed

The nation is set to begin manufacturing the vaccine this month as the health minister reveals when international borders are set to open.

7news.com.au

Crystal clear comments

All other Australians could receive the jab in the months after, to the end of 2021 - around the same time the government hopes to re-open international borders.

Our goal is to have the borders open, subject to vaccination and health advice, by the end of 2021.”

These guys for real ???

Possibly on the optimistic side of the ledger actually.

Just think about all the dates that the Fed Govt has put forward over the last 7 months, Sept Qtr 20, late 2020, early 2021, July 2021, late 2021, & now the end of 2021.

The logistical work has seemingly not even begun, let alone been scoped - not one report in public domain that I can find on the logistics/requirements of a vaccine rollout.
<redacted>

I'm in the process of loading up my caravan for a week away from home. All in small places in Victoria, where I'll see a couple of painted silos, and, if possible, have a couple of pub meals. I'd be surprised if we spend $500 for the week, including fuel.

Given your extensive flying experience I am shocked by what you say!

Appalled!

I'd be surprised if we spend $500 for the week, including fuel.

Isn't that what you say after the equivalent to having landed and taxied the plane to the terminal?