Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

Things are looking worse for 'international flying' resuming in any way like it was before CV - at least for some years. I wonder if this is part due to hopes of the vaccine being a real silver bullet are waning?

What level of efficacy (vaccine works 50%, 60%, 70% of the time) will it take for most people to gamble on getting infected if international borders are opened?

What efficacy (as of today) do you want for a vaccine before you would risk going to US, UK, Europe etc?

Despite operating more A380s than the rest of the world combined - Emirates has already fired half (around 700) their A380 pilots (not just stood down but fired). Around 500 more have been stood down on no pay with possible termination automatically after 12 months. Not good.

Perhaps this part explains why there are reports that Emirates is (maybe has) stopping 1st class seat redemptions by alliance airlines such as Q. That would make sense as it would create lots of ill will if things get worse.

Emirates Doesn't Have Many A380 Pilots Left

Emirates had previously terminated over half of its A380 pilots, and now the airline is putting even more on an unpaid leave for 12 months.

onemileatatime.com

Lufthansa had previously announced retiring permanently 6 of their A380s, at their recent earnings release they suggested it is going to be all their A380s. They mentioned 38 other owned aircraft and 10 leased A319s will also be retired permanently.

Lufthansa Management Assumes A380 Fleet Will Be Retired Permanently

simpleflying.com

Now Thai Airways has announced an 'as is whereis' sale of over 34 planes ranging in age from 10 to 28 years.

Thai Airways Selling Boeing 747, Airbus A380 Fleet

Thai Airways is selling dozens of planes, including all of its 747s and two of its A380s. What does that mean for the future of the fleet?

onemileatatime.com

Does anyone have a handle on what the per day costs are for a parked widebody?

 

[jakeseven7]

A start I guess.

But there is not much public push for 'real' international flights or bubbles I'm afraid.

We seem to be happy to leave 32,000 Australians wanting to come home overseas too.

----
Premier approves NZ to Melbourne flights to resume from next week

International flights from New Zealand will be able to land directly in Melbourne from Monday.

Premier Daniel Andrews said he had written to Prime Minister Scott Morrison to say the state would join the trans-Tasman bubble, after seven days in a row of zero COVID-19 cases.

As it happened: Victoria records seventh day of zero new COVID-19 cases, deaths; vaccine distribution could face challenges; Australia's death toll at 907

Australia continues to build on its plans for a COVID-safe summer while the US and Europe grapple with a second wave of the pandemic.

www.theage.com.au

 

[RAM]

A start I guess.

But there is not much public push for 'real' international flights or bubbles I'm afraid.

We seem to be happy to leave 32,000 Australians wanting to come home overseas too.

As the DFAT figures detailed that approx 70% are in/from (in descending order - although 2 & 3 may need to be reversed):

1. India
2. South Africa
3. Vietnam
4. The Phillipines

It also could suggest that it does not think it will change the way they'll vote or donate.

----
Premier approves NZ to Melbourne flights to resume from next week

International flights from New Zealand will be able to land directly in Melbourne from Monday.

Premier Daniel Andrews said he had written to Prime Minister Scott Morrison to say the state would join the trans-Tasman bubble, after seven days in a row of zero COVID-19 cases.

As it happened: Victoria records seventh day of zero new COVID-19 cases, deaths; vaccine distribution could face challenges; Australia's death toll at 907

Australia continues to build on its plans for a COVID-safe summer while the US and Europe grapple with a second wave of the pandemic.

www.theage.com.au

It seems that some of 'those who shall not be named' who have been taking up over 30,000 seats away from 'vulnerable Australians (mostly dual citizens it appears)' have been international students.

The ABC had a story about figures released a couple of weeks back. It was about the number of international students currently in Australia. At least as of the end of August when the last date for pulling out of a course for the half - went by. It was 689,000 (relying on memory) but what was more interesting to me was what the Govt official said after that.

The number is down 21% (memory) from 2019 which is not that much worse than we anticipated as due to adverse publicity in mainland China we projected quite a drop in the numbers of Chinese students.

Now that is very different to the spin from universities being used as an excuse for firing, cutting pay & conditions for > 10,000 staff in addition to contactors this year.

BTW - where did I miss news about International students being brought into the NT from next week before being sent post-quarantine Australia-wide?

 

[oznflfan]

Things are looking worse for 'international flying' resuming in any way like it was before CV - at least for some years. I wonder if this is part due to hopes of the vaccine being a real silver bullet are waning?

What level of efficacy (vaccine works 50%, 60%, 70% of the time) will it take for most people to gamble on getting infected if international borders are opened?

What efficacy (as of today) do you want for a vaccine before you would risk going to US, UK, Europe etc?

Despite operating more A380s than the rest of the world combined - Emirates has already fired half (around 700) their A380 pilots (not just stood down but fired). Around 500 more have been stood down on no pay with possible termination automatically after 12 months. Not good.

Perhaps this part explains why there are reports that Emirates is (maybe has) stopping 1st class seat redemptions by alliance airlines such as Q. That would make sense as it would create lots of ill will if things get worse.

Emirates Doesn't Have Many A380 Pilots Left

Emirates had previously terminated over half of its A380 pilots, and now the airline is putting even more on an unpaid leave for 12 months.

onemileatatime.com

Lufthansa had previously announced retiring permanently 6 of their A380s, at their recent earnings release they suggested it is going to be all their A380s. They mentioned 38 other owned aircraft and 10 leased A319s will also be retired permanently.

Lufthansa Management Assumes A380 Fleet Will Be Retired Permanently

simpleflying.com

Now Thai Airways has announced an 'as is whereis' sale of over 34 planes ranging in age from 10 to 28 years.

Thai Airways Selling Boeing 747, Airbus A380 Fleet

Thai Airways is selling dozens of planes, including all of its 747s and two of its A380s. What does that mean for the future of the fleet?

onemileatatime.com

Does anyone have a handle on what the per day costs are for a parked widebody?

Makes me sad, but yes, virus still circulating in Europe on reasonable scale, not massive like now, I'd want to have close to 100% efficiacy. Also don't want to coughtail 3 different COVID vaccines to get there.

Surely we need challenge trials once approved, to prove up these numbers? They should have had challenge trials already, and these be the basis of the approval.

Trying to work out what to do for a week mid-end Sept next year. Easiest option being Melbourne, although waiting to see AFL 2021 fixtures so I can hopefully align with Prelim and Grand Final. Other option being somewhere in SE Asia, but that may take some time to bed down. Scomo won't be rushing that decision anytime soon.

 

[RAM]

And in a possibly case of rare good news on international flying - Q states that people can still redeem QFF points on Emirates' 1st class...

Emirates confirms partner airlines to lose first class reward bookings

From April 2021, the frequent flyers of some Emirates partner airlines will be unable to use their points to book first class.

www.executivetraveller.com

Just after they announce a major 'enhancement' for customers - Q's getting rid of all manned service desks in airports & airport lounges. Stand by for a new announcement on job losses.

'When things go wrong passengers prefer to fix it themselves' - paraphrasing the various quotes from the Q senior exec.

As one Q Plat pointed out, recently when he became ill mid-itinerary he was not really in a fit state to be working his way through Q's prize-winning (Darwin Awards maybe?) app nor waiting 3 hours on hold to the offshore call centres.

Perhaps someone at Q feels like they need to give VA MkII a helping hand?

 

[drron]

They actually had the trials sorted very early reducing the normal time for getting a vaccine tested and approved by a considerable time-at least a year.And they are already manufacturing some of the vaccines even though there is a risk they may not be effective.You really can't fast track the vaccine Phase 3 trials by much as you need to recruit sufficient subjects to make sure the result is accurate.
Of course in China they are already vaccinating volunteers.That is=-"Congratulations you have just volunteered to have this insufficiently tested vaccine.'

 

[RAM]

They actually had the trials sorted very early reducing the normal time for getting a vaccine tested and approved by a considerable time-at least a year.And they are already manufacturing some of the vaccines even though there is a risk they may not be effective.You really can't fast track the vaccine Phase 3 trials by much as you need to recruit sufficient subjects to make sure the result is accurate.
Of course in China they are already vaccinating volunteers.That is=-"Congratulations you have just volunteered to have this insufficiently tested vaccine.'

Ok, I will bite. I've been waiting for the opportunity to sing the praises of our favourite modern-day Napoleon. Better known as Putin.

For some reason we have not heard much about that modern-day miracle better known as the Rushing Russian Vaccine since August 11th. Looking at the stats for CV cases in Russia;



I wonder how much harm this has done the perception of potential CV vaccines within Russia & its latter-day satellites?

At least the positive spin from this is the anti-vaxxers cannot (should not rather) claim that the vaccine has caused people to contract CV - as the Russian surge is in the same vein as surges throughout Europe since early August.

With the recent surge in CV cases in NZ (a few weeks back as Russian seamen arrived to crew NZ fishing boats) I don't recall any of the media questioning if they had received the Russian vaccine?

 

[drron]

As far as I am aware despite saying the Phase 3 trials were complete the Russians aren't vaccinating their volunteers yet.

 

[RAM]

International flying, when it resumes, looks less & less enticing

SIA announced another 7 A380s are to be permanently retired (scrapped), leaving 12 of the original 24 A380s. The first 5 retired are now all being scrapped. The first 4 were scrapped by the lessors, and 1 was taken by HiFly on a 3yr lease which has been returned early & is to be scrapped.

Singapore Airlines Retires Seven More Airbus A380s

simpleflying.com

However, it’s not only the Airbus A380 that is surplus in Singapore Airlines’ fleet due to the current situation. In its latest quarterly results, the airline revealed that it has an excess of 26 aircraft. This is comprised of:

• Seven Airbus A380s
• Four Boeing 777-200/200ERs
• Four Boeing 777-300s
• Nine Airbus A320s
• Two Airbus A319s

 

[jakeseven7]

Suspect NZ - TAS might be our only international flights for a while.....!

Hobart to become an international airport (again) in Jan 2021

Has been rumoured for a while and a joke for many many years that HBA kept its international name but no flights.....:) but Scott Morrison is today in Hobart and will announce that Hobart will be set up as an International Airport (again). Flights will commence from Jan 2021, with New Zealand...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[RAM]

Suspect NZ - TAS might be our only international flights for a while.....!

Hobart to become an international airport (again) in Jan 2021

Has been rumoured for a while and a joke for many many years that HBA kept its international name but no flights.....:) but Scott Morrison is today in Hobart and will announce that Hobart will be set up as an International Airport (again). Flights will commence from Jan 2021, with New Zealand...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

No wonder the A380s are being retired then - too short a runway!

 

[Pushka]

Nephew who works in France and flew back in September after a respite in Australia during Covid is returning to Australia for Christmas. Work is paying for J from Paris to Frankfurt then to Singapore then SIA through to Adelaide where he will be in quarantine for 2 weeks prior to Christmas. Let's hope he tests negative through that period or it will all be for nought if he misses Christmas then has to return to work after in France. Not sure if they are telling his kids he is coming, just in case.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

International flying, when it resumes, looks less & less enticing

SIA announced another 7 A380s are to be permanently retired (scrapped), leaving 12 of the original 24 A380s. The first 5 retired are now all being scrapped. The first 4 were scrapped by the lessors, and 1 was taken by HiFly on a 3yr lease which has been returned early & is to be scrapped.

Singapore Airlines Retires Seven More Airbus A380s

simpleflying.com

However, it’s not only the Airbus A380 that is surplus in Singapore Airlines’ fleet due to the current situation. In its latest quarterly results, the airline revealed that it has an excess of 26 aircraft. This is comprised of:

• Seven Airbus A380s
• Four Boeing 777-200/200ERs
• Four Boeing 777-300s
• Nine Airbus A320s
• Two Airbus A319s

The 11 A319/20s are all ex Silk Air. Not bad for SQ to only be dropping 13 frames.

 

[Major]

As long as SQ continue with the A350 I will be a happy camper. Their J offering in the A350 is very comfortable, combine that with SQ's fantastic service and they have a winner.

 

[jgreenspoon]

Comfort be damned, I will fly standing room only if they let me!

 

[RAM]

Comfort be damned, I will fly standing room only if they let me!

Ryanair has the flight for you!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Feels more and more like they want a perfect solution, never going to happen, i'm going to be so pissed if my trip next year gets canned

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Feels more and more like they want a perfect solution, never going to happen, i'm going to be so pissed if my trip next year gets canned

Well you don’t want to be listening to my thoughts then.....I think I guessed July 2023 on this thread for a free choice of international destination without needing permission to leave.

You might also want to take note that Australia is only allowing quarantine-free arrivals from NZ provided less than 3 new cases rolling average over three day (ie 8 cases in 3 days). That might give some guide as to what the Fed Government thinks might be safe to go to as well

 

[oznflfan]

Well you don’t want to be listening to my thoughts then.....I think I guessed July 2023 on this thread for a free choice of international destination without needing permission to leave.

You might also want to take note that Australia is only allowing quarantine-free arrivals from NZ provided less than 3 new cases rolling average over three day (ie 8 cases in 3 days). That might give some guide as to what the Fed Government thinks might be safe to go to as well

Given USA running at average 100,000 per day, France 50,000 per day and Poland 20,000 per day, they make take a while to get down to 3 per day.

Based on the Seppo's stellar record so far, and polling crowds and colder weather, they'll likely be quarter of a million average over 3 day period in a fortnight.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

...I think I guessed July 2023 on this thread for a free choice of international destination without needing permission to leave.

If there's no vaccine... I'd be looking for someone to challenge the departure ban well before 2023. I'm not sure it's actually legal.