Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[OZDUCK]

I wouldn't say "outbreaks have occurred on numerous occasions". Just one huge outbreak that took months to bring under control. But, yes, there have been 54,504 cases record in dormitories (vs 2,275 in the community, outside dormitories and 1,494 imported cases). When they first detected the virus was rife in the dormitories, they closed them off from the rest of Singapore. It has slowed a trickle and this weeks dorm cases were the first since Nov 10.

With the vast majority of infections being in those foreign workers (mainly fit 20-somethings), the mortality rate (29 deaths out of 58,000 cases) has been very low, although I think the Singapore government have been very strict on "died due to complications from COVID" vs "died with COVID").

Meanwhile, the trajectory of the non-dormitory cases has been similar to NSW.

While I pretty much agree with everything you say I still claim the use of 'numerous' is apposite as the outbreaks have occurred in a number of dormitories.

 

[jase05]

Well yes, but we shouldn't wait for too long, I think March is a long way to go, I really hope we can get the first dose by Australia Day so that we can open the borders no later than Queen's birthday and we can evacuate Australia and go back to where we come from.

Nothing stopping you evacuating now if you choose

 

[hb13]

17th March 2021 - A) rollover biosecurity ban to 17/6/2021, B) NZ may be open - no quarantine no vaccination required (best case scenario)

17th June 2021 - A) rollover biosecurity ban to 17/9/2021, B) Singapore may be open - no quarantine no vaccination required (best case scenario)

17th September 2021 - end biosecurity ban and allow oversea's travel IF YOU ARE VACCINATED. There may be restrictions on visiting some countries depending on their COVID cases (looking at you Seppo's).

I would agree with that timeline except the last point - I can see the travel ban last till 2022 at least. The government may increase the cap slightly between now and the next 12 months, but it'll be late 2021 before the majority of the world's population has had a chance to get vaccinated.

 

[Pushka]

Those dormitories, because of the substandard conditions in them, have basically been plague areas for months. Outbreaks have occurred on numerous occasions.

Quintessentially, those dorms are land-based cruise ships.

 

[oznflfan]

I would agree with that timeline except the last point - I can see the travel ban last till 2022 at least. The government may increase the cap slightly between now and the next 12 months, but it'll be late 2021 before the majority of the world's population has had a chance to get vaccinated.

Noted, and not sure how 'much' of the world needs to be vaccinated, and if for example smartraveller will list green, amber, orange and red for individual countries we can visit. Listening to todays press conference didn't tell me much. Can't trust Scomo when he says get vaccinated and this will be your golden ticket to travel. He also said same thing about CovidSAFE app and state borders.

I live remote and really hanker for a trip a year, last Ubud/Yogyakarta July 2019. Just booked Melbourne for AFL Round 1 in March next year, may also return for Prelim Finals in Sept.

UK (Goodwood FOS) & France (Normandy D-Day landing beaches) next serious oversea's trip planned for July 2022. If I get that I will be a happy man.

 

[CityRail]

17th March 2021 - A) rollover biosecurity ban to 17/6/2021, B) NZ may be open - no quarantine no vaccination required (best case scenario)

17th June 2021 - A) rollover biosecurity ban to 17/9/2021, B) Singapore may be open - no quarantine no vaccination required (best case scenario)

17th September 2021 - end biosecurity ban and allow oversea's travel IF YOU ARE VACCINATED. There may be restrictions on visiting some countries depending on their COVID cases (looking at you Seppo's).

That would be too late. By now we have already wasted an entire year's time getting stuck in Australia, I think this government should treat this travel ban extension as the last one and ensure we can have travel bubbles before 17th March, or I would arrange protests on the streets to force the borders open.

With vaccinations, there are no evidence that vaccines can stop the spread of the virus, only trigger immune response to reduce the sickness. So I don't understand why the government is so obsessed with getting people vaccinated before travelling? Coronavirus has little effect on young people, so those who think is high risk will get vaccinated themselves. If vaccines cannot stop the spread, there will be outbreak anyhow, just with a lot of people who are not as sick and no symptoms. I don't think in that case is a bad thing at all.

 

[oznflfan]

That would be too late. By now we have already wasted an entire year's time getting stuck in Australia, I think this government should treat this travel ban extension as the last one and ensure we can have travel bubbles before 17th March, or I would arrange protests on the streets to force the borders open.

With vaccinations, there are no evidence that vaccines can stop the spread of the virus, only trigger immune response to reduce the sickness. So I don't understand why the government is so obsessed with getting people vaccinated before travelling? Coronavirus has little effect on young people, so those who think is high risk will get vaccinated themselves. If vaccines cannot stop the spread, there will be outbreak anyhow, just with a lot of people who are not as sick and no symptoms. I don't think in that case is a bad thing at all.

Your last point is correct, and that is the issue Scomo, Hunt & Kelly need to get their head around, and change their mindset. I think they need to see vaccines in arms both here and around the world. Based on March being first date any data on vaccinations held, this will be pressed out as I stated above. Greg was cagey on opening, concentrating on good news domestically. Again, second half of 2021 best case for leaving the country.

 

[jb747]

That would be too late. By now we have already wasted an entire year's time getting stuck in Australia, I think this government should treat this travel ban extension as the last one and ensure we can have travel bubbles before 17th March, or I would arrange protests on the streets to force the borders open.

What on earth makes you think you could 'force' the borders open?

 

[ayushamity]

Is the next National Cabinet on this Friday ? Wonder what they will babble on about under the pretext of 'discussing' international travel.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What on earth makes you think you could 'force' the borders open?

Cutting through the hyperbole it's an issue that potentially has legs. The ban on Australians leaving potentially violates the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which Australia has ratified. If the ban was to drag on past the mass roll out of vaccines the grounds to challenge would become more certain.

 

[DC3]

If the ban was to drag on past the mass roll out of vaccines the grounds to challenge would become more certain.

Whatever date that will be.

 

[CityRail]

Cutting through the hyperbole it's an issue that potentially has legs. The ban on Australians leaving potentially violates the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which Australia has ratified. If the ban was to drag on past the mass roll out of vaccines the grounds to challenge would become more certain.

Which means if 5 million people are vaccinated and the borders do not open, we should joint together and have a legal action to sue the government and force the international borders to reopen, so that we can go back to where we come from!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Which means if 5 million people are vaccinated and the borders do not open, we should joint together and have a legal action to sue the government and force the international borders to reopen, so that we can go back to where we come from!

It would not be without significant difficulty as this article shows: Lawyer to challenge Commonwealth in court over “draconian” international travel ban - Travel Weekly

There are of course lawyers and academics on both sides of the argument - those who think the ban is and is not valid.

 

[jase05]

so that we can go back to where we come from!

Again, there is nothing stopping you from going right now if you choose

 

[Flashback]

Just noting Wales has reduced the self isolation period when returning from a country on the naughty list from 14 to 10 days. Given there's not many international flights in via Wales it doesn't mean much. Not long till UK rolls out release from self iso after a negative test taken at the 5 day mark.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just noting Wales has reduced the self isolation period when returning from a country on the naughty list from 14 to 10 days. Given there's not many international flights in via Wales it doesn't mean much. Not long till UK rolls out release from self iso after a negative test taken at the 5 day mark.

Do people think 5-day negative iso is cutting corners at this point in time? Are there stats on how many (rate) subsequently become positive?

 

[Flashback]

Do people think 5-day negative iso is cutting corners at this point in time? Are there stats on how many (rate) subsequently become positive?

The best way to think of it is .. if you make it too long, people just won't bother. The reality is lots are skirting around the 14 days but with no enforcement there's no surprise. What this is, is a hidden economy stimulus. This is likely to be taken up by business travellers and then also maybe some of the general public around Christmas time, with likely few other takers. It will result in money for the testers ...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Just to show that even a pre/test doesn’t stop a trip to nowhere being disrupted/ruined

'Worst fear': Cruise ship passenger tests positive for coronavirus

Covid was detected on a 'cruise-to-nowhere', with nearly 1700 passengers told to remain in their cabins.

au.yahoo.com

 

[hb13]

That would be too late. By now we have already wasted an entire year's time getting stuck in Australia, I think this government should treat this travel ban extension as the last one and ensure we can have travel bubbles before 17th March, or I would arrange protests on the streets to force the borders open.

With vaccinations, there are no evidence that vaccines can stop the spread of the virus, only trigger immune response to reduce the sickness. So I don't understand why the government is so obsessed with getting people vaccinated before travelling? Coronavirus has little effect on young people, so those who think is high risk will get vaccinated themselves. If vaccines cannot stop the spread, there will be outbreak anyhow, just with a lot of people who are not as sick and no symptoms. I don't think in that case is a bad thing at all.

I also agree that it's too late and quite frankly ridiculous. But the federal government has shown it doesn't care.

I think once everyone who is vulnerable has had a vaccine, and vaccines are widely available, people should be allowed to move as they wish and things should be back to normal. Because at this point you will have largely protected the vulnerable; and anyone who wants a vaccine can get it - anyone who doesn't, doesn't have to. Everyone will know the risks and a vaccine is there if you want it.

 

[hb13]

Noted, and not sure how 'much' of the world needs to be vaccinated, and if for example smartraveller will list green, amber, orange and red for individual countries we can visit. Listening to todays press conference didn't tell me much. Can't trust Scomo when he says get vaccinated and this will be your golden ticket to travel. He also said same thing about CovidSAFE app and state borders.

I live remote and really hanker for a trip a year, last Ubud/Yogyakarta July 2019. Just booked Melbourne for AFL Round 1 in March next year, may also return for Prelim Finals in Sept.

UK (Goodwood FOS) & France (Normandy D-Day landing beaches) next serious oversea's trip planned for July 2022. If I get that I will be a happy man.

How 'much' of the world needs to be vaccinated is not something anyone really knows. But from what we can see of the Australian government, they are pushing to basically not allow anything back to normal (travel wise) till there is no cases anywhere.

We have heard of travel corridors for months and there is not one at the moment - technically the NZ travel 'corridor' is only one-way at the moment, so I wouldn't really count that one.