Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Well, India seems to agree, and is about to start on the Oxford this week:

Covid-19: Oxford vaccine may get nod in a few days - Times of India

India is likely to see the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine being approved for emergency use in next few days as the updated data submitted by Serum Institute of India (SII) appears “satisfactory”, top govt sources said. Once evaluation of data is complete, the regulator may not wait for the vaccine...

m.timesofindia.com

This is very good.

 

[Ric]

Oxford is clearly their preference given the ease of logistics of distribution. And cost. Something like around $6 compared with I've read, $70 with the two current ones.

That's my personal preference too.

But what I was alluring to was for which countries to recognise which vaccines? Supposing a stranded Aussie, say, in BKK gotten a Sinovac vaccine and wanting to get back to Oz. Would the Aussie government recognise him/her as being properly vaccinated?

I guess that this is something for WHO to work out with all countries to come to an agreement.
And this could delay travel internationally!!

 

[DC3]

... Would the Aussie government recognise him/her as being properly vaccinated? ...

Paging scomo ....................................

 

[N860CR]

Paging scomo ....................................

Why? Can’t imagine a single minister would have an answer prior to a policy being implemented. This is why it’s important that constituents raise the concerns before they become genuine problems.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

the sound quality of the questions is poor but the replies from Hunt seem almost hopeful

 

[oznflfan]

the sound quality of the questions is poor but the replies from Hunt seem almost hopeful

Yet this does not:

 

[N860CR]

Yet this does not:

I took that as the WHO having a bit of a stab at countries like Australia and NZ who have removed themselves from the world and targeted an impossible strategy of eradicating the virus.

Realistically, once the vaccine is fully deployed (which won’t take long with our small population and exceptionally well funded health system), there really is no great risk to the australian public (and we can put away the election board counter).

 

[Pushka]

Yet this does not:

View attachment 236867

I think Australia makes decisions independently of WHO these days.

 

[hb13]

I think Australia makes decisions independently of WHO these days.

I think every country country makes decisions independently of WHO these days.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... and targeted an impossible strategy of eradicating the virus.

Not really impossible though because we did it! If all quarantine was held remotely, we'd be just fine!

 

[N860CR]

Not really impossible though because we did it! If all quarantine was held remotely, we'd be just fine!

No, we haven’t. So your suggestion is that Australia remains locked off from the entire world for eternity?

 

[Flashback]

I took that as the WHO having a bit of a stab at countries like Australia and NZ who have removed themselves from the world and targeted an impossible strategy of eradicating the virus.

Realistically, once the vaccine is fully deployed (which won’t take long with our small population and exceptionally well funded health system), there really is no great risk to the australian public (and we can put away the election board counter).

I think it might take longer than you expect. It's taken the US / UK longer than you might have predicted, to get even close to 1 million ....... that's with fairly adequate supply of the vaccine, too.

 

[Pushka]

I think it might take longer than you expect. It's taken the US / UK longer than you might have predicted, to get even close to 1 million ....... that's with fairly adequate supply of the vaccine, too.

I think that's the issue with the current vaccinations that require elaborate logistics. In Australia it is likely only hospitals can administer it due to refrigeration. The Oxford one can be administered by every pharmacist.

 

[davistev]

Since no vaccine is 100% effective and since in practice Australia aims for 100% elimination of the virus, it would seem we have two different futures:

1) We all get vaccinated and the borders remain closed
or
2) We all get vaccinated, and the borders are opened.

In the second scenario, we can expect infections to rise but most probably not to a point that is overwhelming to the medical system. We can certainly expect more deaths in the future and many many calls to keep the borders closed. IMO, Australian's may have to lower their expectations regarding living in a Covid free world and accept a certain level of mortality.

It may simply be a case of "we have done everything we can short of living in a bubble".

 

[Pushka]

Since no vaccine is 100% effective and since in practice Australia aims for 100% elimination of the virus, it would seem we have two different futures:

1) We all get vaccinated and the borders remain closed
or
2) We all get vaccinated, and the borders are opened.

In the second scenario, we can expect infections to rise but most probably not to a point that is overwhelming to the medical system. We can certainly expect more deaths in the future and many many calls to keep the borders closed. IMO, Australian's may have to lower their expectations regarding living in a Covid free world and accept a certain level of mortality.

It may simply be a case of "we have done everything we can short of living in a bubble".

That is exactly the same situation as the annual Flu season. Once there is 70% immunity rate in a population then the virus tends to disappear anyway. At least, that is all my understanding.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Since no vaccine is 100% effective and since in practice Australia aims for 100% elimination of the virus, it would seem we have two different futures:

1) We all get vaccinated and the borders remain closed
or
2) We all get vaccinated, and the borders are opened.

In the second scenario, we can expect infections to rise but most probably not to a point that is overwhelming to the medical system. We can certainly expect more deaths in the future and many many calls to keep the borders closed. IMO, Australian's may have to lower their expectations regarding living in a Covid free world and accept a certain level of mortality.

It may simply be a case of "we have done everything we can short of living in a bubble".

I think the biggest factor is that the vaccines will reduce the severity... so serious complications and hospitalisation will become rare. Infection rate is probably not going to be such an issue in that case.

We have only gone for elimination - successfully, bar international arrivals - because the consequences can be so catastrophic.

 

[ayushamity]

Infection rate is probably not going to be such an issue in that case.

Yea but I am not confident the premiers thinking will change. One case and shut the borders. What makes you think their obsession with case numbers will go away ?

 

[jakeseven7]

Yea but I am not confident the premiers thinking will change. One case and shut the borders. What makes you think their obsession with case numbers will go away ?

Because if the vaccine reduces the severity of the infection to less than a common cold they won’t care anymore.

 

[trevella]

But they will care for long enough to keep interfering with prospects for international travel until well into 2022.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yea but I am not confident the premiers thinking will change. One case and shut the borders. What makes you think their obsession with case numbers will go away ?

If there is no longer the threat of serious complications and hospitalisations on a mass scale, there is no reason to be obsessed with case numbers.

Premiers are closing borders to stop infection getting to vulnerable people, and to protect our health systems. There's no sinister motive.