Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[trevella]

Over 1,000 cases in Tokyo for the first time today... and also over 1,300. They weren’t even able to count them all by the usual announcement time.

Getting a test January 1-3 will not be easy.

 

[Flashback]

And so the vaccination timeline in the UK continues to (maybe?) extend........

Questions over Britain's decision to drop two-dose vaccine regimen

Britain's medical regulator is now recommending Covid jabs are given in two doses three months apart, rather than over the intended four-week period, to deal with spiking Covid hospitalisations and cases.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Not sure if this is good or bad news to be honest.

 

[love_the_life]

And so the vaccination timeline in the UK continues to (maybe?) extend........

Questions over Britain's decision to drop two-dose vaccine regimen

Britain's medical regulator is now recommending Covid jabs are given in two doses three months apart, rather than over the intended four-week period, to deal with spiking Covid hospitalisations and cases.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Not sure if this is good or bad news to be honest.

Interesting though also news reports say the vaccinations are running well behind time and they haven’t hit projected numbers.

 

[Flashback]

Interesting though also news reports say the vaccinations are running well behind time and they haven’t hit projected numbers.

Which doesn't surprise me at all. I have mentioned a few times that people do need a reality check and the vaccination won't be rolled out as quick as they think! As I say, it's going to be another long year I reckon... Only a few hours left of this one at least

 

[Pushka]

Which doesn't surprise me at all. I have mentioned a few times that people do need a reality check and the vaccination won't be rolled out as quick as they think! As I say, it's going to be another long year I reckon... Only a few hours left of this one at least

Until the Oxford one comes online, the vaccination logistics were always going to be difficult. Keep up the hope.

 

[hb13]

Which doesn't surprise me at all. I have mentioned a few times that people do need a reality check and the vaccination won't be rolled out as quick as they think! As I say, it's going to be another long year I reckon... Only a few hours left of this one at least

Even though I hate to say it, 2021 may arguably be worse than 2020. If you look at the US and the UK, who both now have 2 vaccines approved each, vaccination numbers are significantly lower than expected (US 2.8 M vs target 20 M, UK 600k vs target 'millions' by end of 2020).

To add to this, the UK has now effectively switched to a 1-dose regime because of how slow the vaccination process is. Pfizer has come out and said that after 21 days from the first dose, there are no data showing someone is protected. There has been no transparency whatsoever about why they're doing this - people are suspecting it is because of how slow the vaccination process is. Being based in the UK, it is clear the UK government has absolutely no clue what it is doing. The way things are going here, this disaster is about to blow up in all our faces.

 

[33kft]

Surely wasting 1M doses of a vaccine because you go against the vendor's instructions benefits nobody... Sadly it's a race against time but you would hope sanity prevails quickly and follow up doses are given to those who have had the first dose so somebody is protected, at least.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Surely wasting 1M doses of a vaccine because you go against the vendor's instructions benefits nobody... Sadly it's a race against time but you would hope sanity prevails quickly and follow up doses are given to those who have had the first dose so somebody is protected, at least.

I could be wrong but I thought I read last night that the increased protection between doses one and two was fairly minimal? Hence the change to vaccinate as many as possible with one dose.

What I couldn't find was the potential reduction in severity of illness if you still catch covid with the Oxford vaccine? I thought pfizer was close to a 100% reduction, anyone know the figure for Oxford?

 

[33kft]

I could be wrong but I thought I read last night that the increased protection between doses one and two was fairly minimal? Hence the change to vaccinate as many as possible with one dose.

According to https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/doc...-for-changing-pfizer-covid-vaccine-plan-.html

Pfizer’s late-stage clinical trials showed that the vaccine was somewhat effective after the first dose was administered. In documents published to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in early December, data appeared to show the vaccine was at least 52% effective before the second dose and 82% effective for the combined group of people who took one or two doses.

Both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines have shown to be at least 94% effective, however, if given in two doses about a month apart.

So if I am reading that correctly, it appears to be half as effective after one shot - which isn't zero, and perhaps why they're pursuing this strategy, but given no studies have been completed regarding the duration of coverage, the UK could shooting themselves in the foot if the duration ends up being less than 50%.

Then there's the other point, that it really hasn't been tested very thoroughly clinically as the test regime was based on two shots:

“The safety and efficacy of the vaccine has not been evaluated on different dosing schedules as the majority of trial participants received the second dose within the window specified in the study design,” Pfizer said.

So it is still a fairly brave call to deviate at this point I'd think, if it turns out they're wrong in some fundamental way it would be a costly mistake.

 

[hb13]

I could be wrong but I thought I read last night that the increased protection between doses one and two was fairly minimal? Hence the change to vaccinate as many as possible with one dose.

What I couldn't find was the potential reduction in severity of illness if you still catch covid with the Oxford vaccine? I thought pfizer was close to a 100% reduction, anyone know the figure for Oxford?

Not according to pfizer/biontech. According to them, after 21 days, it is unknown what the effectiveness of the vaccine is for only one dose: Pfizer warns "no data" to show single dose of vaccine offers protection after 21 days

 

[hb13]

According to https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/doc...-for-changing-pfizer-covid-vaccine-plan-.html



So if I am reading that correctly, it appears to be half as effective after one shot - which isn't zero, and perhaps why they're pursuing this strategy, but given no studies have been completed regarding the duration of coverage, the UK could shooting themselves in the foot if the duration ends up being less than 50%.

Then there's the other point, that it really hasn't been tested very thoroughly clinically as the test regime was based on two shots:



So it is still a fairly brave call to deviate at this point I'd think, if it turns out they're wrong in some fundamental way it would be a costly mistake.

I would call the move absolutely idiotic, and many doctors in the UK agree. Furthermore, Pfizer is saying they have no clue what protection there is after 21 days: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

This is beyond frustrating as the UK government, who have have arguably handled this worse than any other government worldwide bar the US and Brazil, seem to sit and decide how they can bungle this even further and go down that path.

Apologies as I know is thread should be kept to Australian affairs, however, as an Aussie in the UK, along with thousands like me I'm sure, this probably means no visit home till 2022 at the earliest. This new decision will, as I mentioned before turn this disaster here in the UK into an absolute catastrophe.

As frustrated as I am, if I were in Scott Morrison's shoes, I wouldn't let anyone who has recently been in the UK anywhere near Australia right now.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sorry - got my wires crossed. I was reading that the Oxford vaccine is sort of semi-effective after one dose, and a second dose is 'nice', but not a 'must have'.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I think alot of the pfizer stuff needs a pinch of salt, their potential sales would have taken an absolute beating with oxford saying they are looking to produce 3billion doses this year. Oxford is the way forward, cheaper, easier.

If you are under 60/70 covid really isnt much more of a risk than taking a three hour drive / getting on a plane / crossing a road so whatever tickbox needs to be done to get the majority of the world moving again while still protecting the vulnerable / elderly, get on with it, shoot me up and give me the bit of paper to wave in some overly self important hero working at an airport desk

 

[N860CR]

If you are under 60/70 covid really isnt much more of a risk than taking a three hour drive / getting on a plane / crossing a road so whatever tickbox needs to be done to get the majority of the world moving again while still protecting the vulnerable / elderly, get on with it, shoot me up and give me the bit of paper to wave in some overly self important hero working at an airport desk

Correct. So once everyone over say 60 is vaccinated in Australia, we should be as good as done. Wouldn’t put money on that happening though! The joys of the lucky country - so much money we can literally hide forever. Except for those who can’t.

 

[drron]

As I have said before you need to see the vaccines used in very large numbers to get a true idea of effectiveness and safety.
For example there were no severe allergic reactions in the Pfizer/Moderna trials but when in more common use that has occurred.
Possibly more important there were more cases of Bell's Palsy using those vaccines than in the control groups.Jury is out on whether it is the vaccine or not but in the past the more severe side effects of vaccines have usually been neurological problems.

 

[N860CR]

If that's the case, we must demand all borders reopen by Easter, so that we can travel!

Ive always admired your optimism and I seriously hope you’re right, but I expect the intl travel ban to be extended until June (and NZ bubble will never happen).

Realistically, if vaccinations start in early March we should have the “at risk” population completed within 3 months. We usually manage to smash out the flu vaccine quickly and one would hope there’s a lot more coordination and resourcing with this one

 

[Flashback]

Even though I hate to say it, 2021 may arguably be worse than 2020. If you look at the US and the UK, who both now have 2 vaccines approved each, vaccination numbers are significantly lower than expected (US 2.8 M vs target 20 M, UK 600k vs target 'millions' by end of 2020).

To add to this, the UK has now effectively switched to a 1-dose regime because of how slow the vaccination process is. Pfizer has come out and said that after 21 days from the first dose, there are no data showing someone is protected. There has been no transparency whatsoever about why they're doing this - people are suspecting it is because of how slow the vaccination process is. Being based in the UK, it is clear the UK government has absolutely no clue what it is doing. The way things are going here, this disaster is about to blow up in all our faces.

I would call the move absolutely idiotic, and many doctors in the UK agree. Furthermore, Pfizer is saying they have no clue what protection there is after 21 days: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

This is beyond frustrating as the UK government, who have have arguably handled this worse than any other government worldwide bar the US and Brazil, seem to sit and decide how they can bungle this even further and go down that path.

Apologies as I know is thread should be kept to Australian affairs, however, as an Aussie in the UK, along with thousands like me I'm sure, this probably means no visit home till 2022 at the earliest. This new decision will, as I mentioned before turn this disaster here in the UK into an absolute catastrophe.

As frustrated as I am, if I were in Scott Morrison's shoes, I wouldn't let anyone who has recently been in the UK anywhere near Australia right now.

It's going to blow up in our faces? Before the catastrophe happens? Erm.... perhaps we're experiencing a different life in the UK, but IMHO it's already blown up and we're living out that catastrophe!

 

[ayushamity]

Ive always admired your optimism and I seriously hope you’re right, but I expect the intl travel ban to be extended until June (and NZ bubble will never happen).

It will be October 2021. The Gov expects vaccinations to be complete by then and they said they are not opening borders until everyone gets vaccinated.

In fact, it is scary that we are reliant on other people getting vaccines. A lot of hesitancy among my group of friends as well and if they say no to vaccines, we might not be able to open borders.

 

[CityRail]

It will be October 2021. The Gov expects vaccinations to be complete by then and they said they are not opening borders until everyone gets vaccinated.

In fact, it is scary that we are reliant on other people getting vaccines. A lot of hesitancy among my group of friends as well and if they say no to vaccines, we might not be able to open borders.

If they refuse vaccine then they should left with their own risk. We cannot wait anymore to open our borders because of a minority group that hinders us from leaving!

 

[ayushamity]

''The Prime Minister announced the new figure of how many Australians have returned home from overseas.

"The figures on December 30 was that 63,109 Australians were able to get home by the end of the year from September 18," he said.

"As you know, that is more than double the number we had as our target of just around 26,000 back in September.''

So 63000/14 = average of 4,500/week returning

Dec beginning, they said 36,000 aussies still wanting to return home. So say 16K have come back in December. At this rate, backlog could be cleared by February ?