Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

interesting to see QLD with the doctor yesterday, NSW with the hotel worker today, we will see just how much they want to tighten down the world for 2 cases on the back of the 'tour in Aus with half price flights' incentive.
 
As more of the workers working in hotel quarantine and COVID wards on hospitals are vaccinated cases like these should become less common. With the reduced risk they should be able to scale up hotel quarantine, but there may not be the political will to do so.

The Fed Government was not to subtly sending a message to the states that if they want their tourism sectors to get support they need to keep the state borders open. In hindsight the financial support for the tourism industry should have been structured this way sooner, I think.
 
hb13 said:
You're right about the vulnerable populations. To add to this, we were at a point in time where the advice should be the main thing being followed while the virus was controlled.

Now however, there is a vaccine. And Brendan Murphy is effectively advocating for delaying the progress of every other aspect of life for absolutely no reason at all.
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no reason at all....

  • other than to keep up his TV appearances before he fades away to the obscurity he perhaps deserves?
  • other than to keep his pay increase (& increased benefits) with his new position?
To hear him justifying Scott Morrison's repeated statements that the loss of the 250,000 doses (withheld by Italy) would have no effect on the vaccine rollout had me seeing red. Of course if they'd added that due to the incompetence with the existing doses we have on hand - we'd not have been able to administer them... so nothing lost...

That the degree of transparency has now moved from 'obscured' to 'opaque' with the figures only to be released weekly not daily & delivered (to state or Fed private sector contractor) only reported not injected & doses held - completes the smokescreen to be able to delay opening the international borders until such time as it suits for the next Federal Election.

Unfortunately the WA State Election outcome, IMHO, has pushed the re-opening date out by at least 6 months until early 2022 for two reasons:
  • Been seen to be electorally popular to 'protect' your own vs CV infested potential arrivals
  • Only having 2 WA MPs for Liberals means close to zero assistance for Federal Lib campaigning in WA where they currently have the lionshare of Federal seats as well as the unsavoury issues with one of those Federal MPs currently.
Would like to be wrong though!
 
RAM said:
no reason at all....

  • other than to keep up his TV appearances before he fades away to the obscurity he perhaps deserves?
  • other than to keep his pay increase (& increased benefits) with his new position?
To hear him justifying Scott Morrison's repeated statements that the loss of the 250,000 doses (withheld by Italy) would have no effect on the vaccine rollout had me seeing red. Of course if they'd added that due to the incompetence with the existing doses we have on hand - we'd not have been able to administer them... so nothing lost...

That the degree of transparency has now moved from 'obscured' to 'opaque' with the figures only to be released weekly not daily & delivered (to state or Fed private sector contractor) only reported not injected & doses held - completes the smokescreen to be able to delay opening the international borders until such time as it suits for the next Federal Election.

Unfortunately the WA State Election outcome, IMHO, has pushed the re-opening date out by at least 6 months until early 2022 for two reasons:
  • Been seen to be electorally popular to 'protect' your own vs CV infested potential arrivals
  • Only having 2 WA MPs for Liberals means close to zero assistance for Federal Lib campaigning in WA where they currently have the lionshare of Federal seats as well as the unsavoury issues with one of those Federal MPs currently.
Would like to be wrong though!
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Yes, with flights into PER in Nov I fear that even if Oz does open up the SS in PER will still throw hurdles in the way.
 
If the WA government insists on hotel quarantine then QF will likely opt to do either a second sydney to london flight or maybe a MEL-SIN-LHR flight once there is sufficient demand for multiple flights to London a day.
 
Flashback said:
Yes, with flights into PER in Nov I fear that even if Oz does open up the SS in PER will still throw hurdles in the way.
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Wouldn't that be a sight, Scomo allowing quarantine free travel from Singapore 2nd half of 2021, but Perth Airport guards in hazmat suits meeting the plane and transferring then to HQ.

McGowan back in for at least next 3 years so he'll likely settle down. He had to show brute strength leading up to election, but he's in now.
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mviy said:
If the WA government insists on hotel quarantine then QF will likely opt to do either a second sydney to london flight or maybe a MEL-SIN-LHR flight once there is sufficient demand for multiple flights to London a day.
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Or Qantas just pulls out of WA completely.
 
Well doing both London flights from the East Coast via Singapore would effectively be doing that for most Australians outside of WA.
 
oznflfan said:
Wouldn't that be a sight, Scomo allowing quarantine free travel from Singapore 2nd half of 2021, but Perth Airport guards in hazmat suits meeting the plane and transferring then to HQ.

McGowan back in for at least next 3 years so he'll likely settle down. He had to show brute strength leading up to election, but he's in now.
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Or Qantas just pulls out of WA completely.
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Or Perth pulls out of Australia completely? lol
 
Pom-DownUnder said:
The difference that IS going to occur in those timelines is because of actions (vaccines) being done NOW, or as the case may be, not being done now. your protests in 6 months will complaints in months will be baseless. i'm still annoyed that the press arent pushing scomo on the timeframe of doing first dose's first if second doses are being pushed
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The US will effectively be back to normal by July 4th, which will be a massive coup for Biden. They'll have every adult fully vaccinated by then - or at least everyone who wants a vaccine. Mammoth effort for a country of 340 million.

And at that point, Australia will still be petering along because "we don't need to worry about vaccines" and state borders still closing over someone with a headache or sore throat discovered in the state.
 
CaptJCool said:
Wow @jb747

The best earliest prediction was yours in post #20..... and In Likelihood the least optimistic of anyone’s
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I would have been very happy to have been totally wrong. Sadly though I see it as being a bit like building a house. It takes months and months to build, but a bulldozer can knock it down in 30 seconds. In the case of the aviation industry, replace months with decades, and seconds with, well, seconds.
 
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I know there was a lot talk of the gov wanting to hang on till election and the borders being discussed after that. If they keep screwing the pooch like they are doing on this vaccination program then it might well not work for them all that well
 
I've been thinking recently that it would seem more likely now the the government will go full term before an election holding one maybe May next year (the latest that a half senate election can be held in time for the Senators to take their seats. The House of Reps could be held as late as September next year but it's very rare that that would be held separately to the Senate election. They'd have to think that they were facing a catastrophic wipeout to even consider doing that).

If the election is held next year I hope the borders will have been open for a while.

A lot can happen over the next six months though. There could yet be an election later this year.
 
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Nothing is going to happen until a bulk of the vulnerable are inoculated and the state premiers are taken out of the equation.

They can’t have domestic borders slamming shut every 5 minutes and international travellers trapped in random states unable to get out.
 
mviy said:
If the WA government insists on hotel quarantine then QF will likely opt to do either a second sydney to london flight or maybe a MEL-SIN-LHR flight once there is sufficient demand for multiple flights to London a day.
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Via Darwin if you want to keep the connection in Oz. Either the 380 or 787 is capable of that...
 
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