Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

We should be able to do home quarantine now. People that caught COVID in Australia in much of the country are trusted to quarantine at home. Whereas someone who is fully vaccinated, has spent the past 14 days in a country with high vaccination rates, tested negative before departure and is highly unlikely to have COVID has to spend two weeks in a quarantine hotel.

I was thinking about this last night, what about an interim step, instead of home, what about co-opting some serviced apartments for low risk arrivals to test the hypothesis? Some people might not have somewhere suitable to go to. I see lots of apartments, with kitchen facilities and often with balconies and separate living rooms for around the $2k mark in Melbourne, vastly preferable to paying $4k for a small hotel room ...

 

[N860CR]

Sorry but there is still at least a month before that is true for the 1b group due to the timelines in getting approval from third parties prior to first vax, then 12 weeks to second shot. I was pretty on top of getting the approval request off to Roche in Switzerland, the getting vax at right point of chemo cycle to avoid false positive CT scans. My second vax is scheduled for this Thursday, this is the absolute earliest it was possible to be completely vaccinated. Other patients will have had slightly different timelines, but we are still only just getting to period for second vax for those willing but with timing restrictions.

Obviously there will always be the odd exception, but 1A and 1B have now been able to get the vaccine for months.

I don't think that's true, is it?

It’s absolutely false

The average age of death in Australia is 82. The average age of death "caused by" COVID in Australia is above this. There will obviously be the odd case here and there that doesn't support that, but as a whole COVID is only fatal in the elderly or at risk. As the Queensland CMO said "an 18 year old will not die from COVID". Lets not forget that a 17 year old died from an infected toenail not that long ago.

So you can’t “let it rip” as that small % is of a very large number and everything gets overwhelmed quickly. (Think about it - 3 deaths from Sydney “outbreak” which still has a low number of cases - apply that maths to the 50k cases a day we have in the U.K. and pretend most people are unvaccinated. Not pretty.)

Nobody is saying "let it rip" as such, but there has to be a middle ground between "let it rip" and "total lockdown and isolation from the world". This is largely the problem with COVID management. We would never tolerate this level of disruption for far more fatal and dangerous risks, but the COVID narrative is so strong that we have totally lost perspective. How many otherwise intelligent people have gone full crazy over COVID?

The funny thing is, the lockdown brigade actually seems more keen on the "let it rip" concept. Vaccinate, then go nuts. How about we start slowly introducing the virus now? The vulnerable are either vaccinated or have had the chance to be. There is no reason we can't start low risk activities like... I don't know... flying from Sydney to Brisbane? Or allowing entry from Singapore and China?

 

[JB expat]

A 50 year old in NSW just died of COVID. Obviously, we don't know the details re: vaccine status/comorbidity factors, but it is very sad. I would not call COVID a minor illness or "just like the flu" - at the same time, I am someone who believes vaccination is the only way back to some kind of normalcy and borders need to open sooner rather than later - employing lots of ideas shared in these 400 plus pages.

 

[bcworld]

I think the view here from non-medicos such as myself is that there has to be a middle ground between what's being done now and being fully open. We've had no COVID deaths outside of NSW this year and had very few go through ICU outside of NSW this year (with the possible exception of the current outbreak in VIC) so we haven't been pushing hospitals anywhere close to their limits. We bought a heap of ventilators early on in the pandemic that mostly haven't had to be used.

So the cut to arrivals was not justified.

I'm not sure. Some on this forum have argued that larger numbers of HQ inmates does not equate to larger risk...it's not an argument I understand.

Faced with increasingly transmissible strains that evidence might be showing are very hard to stop with TTI alone the cap reduction seems prudent to me. That is on the basis that in Australia, that's the bed we've made ourselves. And quarantine breaches cross state lines - that much is obvious.

In our lowly vaccinated world, where is the happy middle ground between COVID Zero and Covid Let it rip if TTI can't do it alone? Just to reiterate for those advocating for it - what is the middle ground that you say must be possible?

 

[JB expat]

I have some friends in 1B and some have already had both shots, though they didn't need to get any approvals to get vaccinated.

I'm 1B and have been fully vaccinated for almost a month - AZ.

 

[dajop]

I'm not sure. Some on this forum have argued that larger numbers of HQ inmates does not equate to larger risk...it's not an argument I understand.

I tend to agree. But I can also see some nuance, that for example, 5000 inbound verifiably* vaccinated travellers + 1000 unvaccinated travellers i probably poses no greater risk than 3000 travellers of unknown vaccination status.

* some other governments are looking at documentation + antibody test to verify vaccination status of those vaccinated outside the jurisdiction of that government.

 

[N860CR]

In our lowly vaccinated world, where is the happy middle ground between COVID Zero and Covid Let it rip if TTI can't do it alone? Just to reiterate for those advocating for it - what is the middle ground that you say must be possible?

Flatten the curve? Tolerate an amount of virus in the community? Again, the vulnerable and at risk have been vaccinated (or have had the opportunity to do so).

Sydney with its highly criticized “lockdown light” managed to keep case numbers stable with some very questionable restrictions like closed restaurants (with QR Codes, spaced seating, masked staff) however fully opened parks packed with thousands of people (with no risk prevention mechanisms).

 

[mviy]

I was thinking about this last night, what about an interim step, instead of home, what about co-opting some serviced apartments for low risk arrivals to test the hypothesis? Some people might not have somewhere suitable to go to. I see lots of apartments, with kitchen facilities and often with balconies and separate living rooms for around the $2k mark in Melbourne, vastly preferable to paying $4k for a small hotel room ...

The home quarantine test is being done with ADF and Paralympians(?). These are highly unlikely to break the rules as they could lose their job or have their sporting career affected if they break the rules. The next step after that could be a trial with the general population to see if the tests they put in place to try to stop breaches are effective with some of the general population and then opening up more broadly.

In our lowly vaccinated world, where is the happy middle ground between COVID Zero and Covid Let it rip

Home quarantine for fully vaccinated travellers coming from highly vaccinated countries like the UK for example. Also freedom for fully vaccinated travellers to go interstate even whilst a lockdown is in place which would provide much needed certainty to industries that depend on domestic travel.

Faced with increasingly transmissible strains that evidence might be showing are very hard to stop with TTI alone the cap reduction seems prudent to me.

The outbreak in NSW is believed to have been caused because the rules at the time allowed an unvaccinated driver to drive freight crew. That is not related to the passenger cap at all.

 

[bcworld]

* some other governments are looking at documentation + antibody test to verify vaccination status.

In Australia we know that no. of people with antibodies = no. of vaccinated people, give or take 20k or so.

Post automatically merged: Jul 19, 2021

The outbreak in NSW is believed to have been caused because the rules at the time allowed an unvaccinated driver to drive freight crew. That is not related to the passenger cap at all.

It's not, but it's just an example of a breach involving the quarantine system. It's not as if breaches of HQ are not well documented by now.

 

[jonboixxx]

There will obviously be the odd case here and there that doesn't support that, but as a whole COVID is only fatal in the elderly or at risk.

Still not true.

 

[bcworld]

Yup, this continual use of the word 'only' is patently false.

 

[MooTime]

Doesn't matter what anybody says atm, we won't be opening up in any degree anytime soon, home Q, nothing until at least everybody that wants to be vaccinated has had the chance. And we know that is some many months off for a juggler of reasons.

Safe to say the next 6 months to years end will be much the same,
* just watching the 1D & 2D number slowly climb
* incentives at some point from public & private companies.
* A target of sorts ann within couple months as Frewen has stated.
* HQ will be piloted, trial on a small scale, nothing to get excited about.
* More knob celebrities will gain entry while genuine aussies struggle to return.
No point going beyond phase 2 atm.

Phase 1: vaccinate, prepare and pilot​

We are in Phase 1 now, and the aim is to continue to minimise community transmission.

Lockdowns may continue to be used in this phase, although only as a last resort.

The international arrivals cap will now be reduced by 50% to take pressure off our hotel quarantine system due to the increased infectiousness of the Delta variant.
Morrison has indicated he expects the cap to stay in place until at least the beginning of 2022.

Phase 2: post-vaccination​

In this phase, the international arrival cap will be restored to current levels for unvaccinated passengers, and a larger cap applied to fully vaccinated passengers.

Lockdowns would rarely be needed, and fully vaccinated people would have eased restrictions in any outbreak with respect to lockdowns or border closures. More students and economic visitors will also be allowed in.

Although no dates or vaccine rollout targets have been set, for us to reach Phase 2, we would clearly need a high percentage of our population to be fully vaccinated.

As it will take at least until the end of year for the whole adult population to have received their first dose, Phase 2 is likely to kick in some time in the first half of 2022.

 

[N860CR]

Still not true.

Except it is. Sorry if it doesn’t suit your agenda but the simple fact of the matter is that this virus is rarely fatal in younger, healthy people.

 

[JB expat]

Except it is. Sorry if it doesn’t suit your agenda but the simple fact of the matter is that this virus is rarely fatal in younger, healthy people.

It sometimes is. And long haul COVID is a real thing - impacting many otherwise young & healthy. I wish you were right, but wishing something is true is not the same as it being true.

 

[dajop]

In Australia we know that no. of people with antibodies = no. of vaccinated people, give or take 20k or so.

Yes. I s hould have made myself clearer, they were looking at antibody testing to verify the vaccination status of those vaccinated in other countries (i.e. not domestic vaccinations). Which is quite relevant if having different conditions for those vaccinated vs those not vaccinated.

(nb: edited my earlier post now to reflect this)

 

[jonboixxx]

Except it is. Sorry if it doesn’t suit your agenda but the simple fact of the matter is that this virus is rarely fatal in younger, healthy people.

Well semantics are sometimes extremely important. Is it "rarely", "only" or is the variable spin on your comments self-serving?

 

[bcworld]

In the UK this year (Jan to early July)...12% of COVID deaths* have been in the 45-64 age range...7.5k / 62.5k.

*no I don't know if it is of covid, with covid or if they had any comorbidity which seems to be used a reason to say well, they were going to die soon anyway.

 

[N860CR]

Well semantics are sometimes extremely important. Is it "rarely", "only" or is the variable spin on your comments self-serving?

Maybe go back and read what I’ve said rather than manipulating things to suit your agenda.

To make it extremely clear - COVID is rarely fatal in those who are younger and without preexisting conditions that leave them at risk of all respiratory viruses. Yes, some healthy younger people may die, however healthy younger people die from any number of viruses, diseases or accidents each day. COVID is unlikely to present any greater risk than these numerous other causes of death.

The point - why are we waiting for a set figure of the whole population to be vaccinated when realistically it’s only certain groups who are greatly at risk?

 

[MooTime]

The point - why are we waiting for a set figure of the whole population to be vaccinated when realistically it’s only certain groups who are greatly at risk?

So what's your view on the much higher takeup of hospital ED wards & ICU wards, all the nurses, Dr's. etc etc needed in assistance for the large upatke in Covid patients in hospitals?

Other people's normal medical ailments may be put on the backburner, delayed. Which in turn will cause other major issues.

There'd be decent strain on the health system.

Also need to vaccinate all age groups as all ages can still catch & pass on covid to older cohorts even though vaccinated. Of course you know this.

 

[jonboixxx]

Maybe go back and read what I’ve said

Once is enough, I'm pleased you've now qualified your previous incorrect assertions which did nothing to serve your argument, parts of which I actually agree with.