Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

And you would lose...

Actually the international ban on leaving the country is probably on shakier ground than the states being able to close their borders. The Feds can put limits on returnees. They can demand quarantine. But actually preventing us from leaving? Even if we have no intention of returning? Not so sure about that.

Mel, think about it. Your desire for travel is a personal thing, that engulfs the rest of the population with added health risks. Why should everyone else "pay" for your whims?

The qualification in my post was the length of time... the ban started in March or something? And if the ban remains in place until we have a fully effective world-wide vaccine... so 2022 as some are predicting... that would mean we are banned from leaving Australia for two years. I don't think the population will be in it for that long a haul. Short term... lots of potential benefits. But there comes a tipping point (the difference however is that I think the state border closures are probably legal, whereas the international ones probably aren't, at least for departing citizens).

 

[drron]

Of course International flights and travel has already restarted.europe for example.It is just that we Australians are not going to be allowed to take part.
So many pessimists.

 

[jakeseven7]

It is distasteful, but real and understandable, all the politics and sides in this debate. I am a resident in Queensland at the moment. We love the border closure. Because we are living in a state that is almost normal. Schools are open, holiday maker's frequent our holiday areas, etc. We can do this because we have so few cases of Covid. Victoria is is in a totally different nightmare with their restrictions. We, as in Qld , do not want to be part of that. We did our hard closures earlier in the year. We all sufferred that. And we succesfully "beat the virus" in that time. To open to the southern states simply makes us subject to the failures or reality of other places where we had no control.

This thread is about international borders.
So to keep it on topic, there are calls for secondary ports in states like my own eg at Gold Coast and in others like Darwin to open up and start processing more returning international Australians, desperate to come home.

 

[Hvr]

I really can't see the Feds being able to ban, legally, all international travel for nearly two years. I'll be launching the HC challenge!!

I hope you're right, but to raise a polemic; what if the government decides that all Australian passports are cancelled? After all, no one has the 'right' to a passport.

This would mean that people wouldn't have the necessary documents to actually travel.

 

[HokitikaGold]

This thread is about international borders.
So to keep it on topic, there are calls for secondary ports in states like my own eg at Gold Coast and in others like Darwin to open up and start processing more returning international Australians, desperate to come home.

If you are going to quote "this thread" ideas, it is actually about "lolly jar' predictions.

It was conceived with no thought of concepts such as processing of returning aussies...

 

[jakeseven7]

If you are going to quote "this thread" ideas, it is actually about "lolly jar' predictions.

It was conceived with no thought of concepts such as processing of returning aussies...

Sure thing.... anyway the government is apparently ‘working hard to lift the international cap’ but its clear that certain state premiers are still sitting around not doing much to help....

 

[Seat0B]

Of course International flights and travel has already restarted.europe for example.It is just that we Australians are not going to be allowed to take part.
So many pessimists.

Is it pessimistic though @drron given that we are not being allowed to take part? Doesn’t that make it realistic?

Anyway, I am going to book award seats, if they become available, for Japan ski trip in January 2022. Fingers crossed that’s not too optimistic.

 

[Himeno]

I hope you're right, but to raise a polemic; what if the government decides that all Australian passports are cancelled? After all, no one has the 'right' to a passport.

This would mean that people wouldn't have the necessary documents to actually travel.

That would then also mean that any Australians still overseas now don't have travel documents and are now trapped in the countries they happen to now be in, which in many cases would be illegally as they would require a valid passport to even be in those countries.

 

[p--and--t]

I hope you're right, but to raise a polemic; what if the government decides that all Australian passports are cancelled? After all, no one has the 'right' to a passport.

This would mean that people wouldn't have the necessary documents to actually travel.

Do you also make a habit of poking a stick in an ants nest

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I hope you're right, but to raise a polemic; what if the government decides that all Australian passports are cancelled? After all, no one has the 'right' to a passport.

This would mean that people wouldn't have the necessary documents to actually travel.

True! But they'd have to stop issuing them for like 10 years! I would prolly think something like issuing passports would be implied somehow, in conjunction with international laws that we have signed up to.

 

[p--and--t]

Lets face it if the feds were serious and desperate to solve the problem of citizens overseas having difficulties with getting flights, the price of flights and state based quarantine they could use the same solution they used before - 2 weeks on a tropical isle.

 

[Hvr]

That would then also mean that any Australians still overseas now don't have travel documents

Easy enough to tell everybody that if they're overseas that when their passport expires that they will only be given a travel document to return home. And upon arrival in Australia the bottom of the front cover is cut off.

There are always little things to be worked out but it's easy enough to stop Australian citizens with no other citizenship from travelling overseas without actually banning it.

As for whether or not any government would be willing to go to that extreme I doubt it, but who knows what might happen in the future?

 

[RAM]

With all the recent news, hype, grandstanding on 'Australians' stuck overseas (& there certainly are many).

The details, numbers and claims do not match up.

DFAT released the figures as of July 31st.

Australians overseas registered with DFAT = 25,000
Australians overseas registered with DFAT wanting to come back to Australia within 6 months = 18,800
Of the 18,800 - around 10,000 were in India, with 70% in total of the 18,800 in India, The Philipines, South Africa & Vietnam. There are daily direct flights from Vietnam (for example) into Sydney.

Weekly cap on arrivals = 3,975.

So 18,800 / 3,975 = 4.7 weeks (or 33 days).

Add 33 days to July 31st, then theoretically everyone of them should have been back in Australia by September 2nd - shouldn't they?

Scott Morrison & Michael McCormack (on Q&A last night) could have solved this IF THEY WANTED TO. For some reason, they do not want this solved.

Solution 1

Declare that the only people allowed to enter Australia are those Australians who have already registered with DFAT.

Solution 2

Remove exemption for foreign nationals (who are close relatives of either an Australian citizen or Australian permanent resident) to enter Australia UNTIL all Australian citizens registered with DFAT have returned, or at least declined a firm offer of a seat.

_________________________________________​

There is no need for there to be an issue with any of the July 31st 18,800 to be unable to return. It would be good to know exactly how many of the 18,800 have actually returned through to Sept 3rd - why haven't any of the Media asked these questions?

The information I've received continues to point to as high as 60%+ being foreign nationals as close relatives yet the 'official' figures released do not indicate this.

The 'official' numbers just do not reconcile with the 3rd party figures that can be substantiated.

For example, much has been made about Australians leaving since late March for 'compassionate' grounds. Total 'approved' departures number under 15,000 of which around 80% were 'semi-permanent- departures (jobs, dual nationals returning to the principle residence overseas, Australians returning to their principle residence overseas or emigrating).

So in 5 months the returning 'additional' Australians is below 3,000 on top of those who were overseas before the International border closure in March. The media would have us believe that these <3,000 make up the bulk of the 18,800.

See my point!

There is actually a fourth group who seem to be able to come & go as they please - 'The Connected'.

These are foreign nationals arriving here for a holiday (today's news - Zac Efron) or coming back to play a sport (Sonny Bill Williams).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With all the recent news, hype, grandstanding on 'Australians' stuck overseas (& there certainly are many).

The details, numbers and claims do not match up.

DFAT released the figures as of July 31st.

Australians overseas registered with DFAT = 25,000
Australians overseas registered with DFAT wanting to come back to Australia within 6 months = 18,800
Of the 18,800 - around 10,000 were in India, with 70% in total of the 18,800 in India, The Philipines, South Africa & Vietnam. There are daily direct flights from Vietnam (for example) into Sydney.

Weekly cap on arrivals = 3,975.

So 18,800 / 3,975 = 4.7 weeks (or 33 days).

Add 33 days to July 31st, then theoretically everyone of them should have been back in Australia by September 2nd - shouldn't they?

Scott Morrison & Michael McCormack (on Q&A last night) could have solved this IF THEY WANTED TO. For some reason, they do not want this solved.

Solution 1

Declare that the only people allowed to enter Australia are those Australians who have already registered with DFAT.

Solution 2

Remove exemption for foreign nationals (who are close relatives of either an Australian citizen or Australian permanent resident) to enter Australia UNTIL all Australian citizens registered with DFAT have returned, or at least declined a firm offer of a seat.

_________________________________________​

There is no need for there to be an issue with any of the July 31st 18,800 to be unable to return. It would be good to know exactly how many of the 18,800 have actually returned through to Sept 3rd - why haven't any of the Media asked these questions?

The information I've received continues to point to as high as 60%+ being foreign nationals as close relatives yet the 'official' figures released do not indicate this.

The 'official' numbers just do not reconcile with the 3rd party figures that can be substantiated.

For example, much has been made about Australians leaving since late March for 'compassionate' grounds. Total 'approved' departures number under 15,000 of which around 80% were 'semi-permanent- departures (jobs, dual nationals returning to the principle residence overseas, Australians returning to their principle residence overseas or emigrating).

So in 5 months the returning 'additional' Australians is below 3,000 on top of those who were overseas before the International border closure in March. The media would have us believe that these <3,000 make up the bulk of the 18,800.

See my point!

There is actually a fourth group who seem to be able to come & go as they please - 'The Connected'.

These are foreign nationals arriving here for a holiday (today's news - Zac Efron) or coming back to play a sport (Sonny Bill Williams).

I understand your point but politically the Federal Opposition is not saying it and they have plenty of chances to say it.

 

[p--and--t]

There is actually a fourth group who seem to be able to come & go as they please - 'The Connected'.

These are foreign nationals arriving here for a holiday (today's news - Zac Efron) or coming back to play a sport (Sonny Bill Williams).

..and Tony Abbott was allowed to fly to London for a few days with at least one family member for a job interview for an unpaid job.

 

[Himeno]

I understand your point but politically the Federal Opposition is not saying it and they have plenty of chances to say it.

Because both major parties, on every level, are full of idiots who don't deserve to be in any sort of public office.

 

[jakeseven7]

I understand your point but politically the Federal Opposition is not saying it and they have plenty of chances to say it.

They were last night? (If you are talking about lifting the arrival caps to allow Australians to come back home, get the other states outside of VIC and NSW to do more etc)

 

[RAM]

Because both major parties, on every level, are full of idiots who don't deserve to be in any sort of public office.

Whilst I agree with your description of most State & Federal Politicians (only around 99.5% of them though! ) - I strongly suspect the silence is due to concern about potential votes.

Never under-estimate the self-interest driving many politicians & political party officials - after all the around $2m every week in LEGAL political donations have a remarkable impact in concentrating politicians' vision.

Unofficially (using access to politicians & union leaders across the spectrum) when I raised the question about why they kicked up so much fuss (one way or another) about 'illegal' boat arrivals - they did nothing about the illegal arrivals by air (predominantly flying Q on return tickets btw)?

Their answers all came down to this: "We cannot afford to lose the votes of voters who are 1st or 2nd generation voters. If 'I' say anything then at the next election campaign I will be painted as a rascist."

So follow-up question was then why aren't you portrayed as a rascist on boats? "The media aren't out at the airport taking footage of 120 people walking off the Qantas flight from Indonesia who disappear into the community & let the return flight expire."

BTW - told 'off the record' that these unused flights were typically worth between $6 to $8m in profit to Q a year. They mostly flew Q as that is the Australian airline & as it is more expensive then less likely to raise suspicion - I was told.

Post automatically merged: Sep 8, 2020

They were last night? (If you are talking about lifting the arrival caps to allow Australians to come back home, get the other states outside of VIC and NSW to do more etc)

No need to raise the caps as the maths proves - just make it reliant on being registered with DFAT. Something that Kristina is VERY well aware of, very aware.

 

[dajop]

So follow-up question was then why aren't you portrayed as a rascist on boats? "The media aren't out at the airport taking footage of 120 people walking off the Qantas flight from Indonesia who disappear into the community & let the return flight expire."

Good to have a refreshingly honest insight, but I guess this is what everyone knew intuitively, the media appeal of people scattered across multiple flights isn't quite so appealing. If someone wanted to spin it, they could also suggest that it is extremely unlikely any illegal immigrants died travelling to Australia by air (unless there were some on on QZ8501 or MH17 planning to take an onward flight to Australia), whilst many have died making the journey by boat.

Any back on the topic of international flights, the other sleeper issue there hasn't been much talk of is the impact the dramatic reduction in migration (I've read 230,000 nett to ~30,000) will have on the ponzi scheme Australian economy (real estate, construction etc).

 

[Seat0B]

There is another group of overseas Australians to consider - those who are content enough to ride it out, but who may, at short notice, find themselves needing to come home. Such people are unlikely to be registered with DFAT at the moment. For example my son, who lives and works in Dubai and is NOT currently registered with DFAT.

Scenario 1.
His Dubai residency is attached to his employer sponsored working visa. If he should lose his job, he will lose his visa, and this his residency and will have 30 days to leave the country. If that happened, he would want to return to Australia. He has checked recently, and there is no airline that will even accept a booking (Y or J) for a flight from Dubai to anywhere in Australia. Earliest available J booking (looking at the end of August) was end of November. Cost was very high.

Scenario 2.
One of his remaining grandparents becomes seriously ill or passes away. No possibility of returning for a farewell visit or the funeral.

Scenario 3.
One of his 60+ yo parents gets COVID or some other serious illness. No chance of returning to care/visit/farewell.

Scenario 4.
There are many other things that an expat might like to do with their family eg greet new born children, attend weddings, graduations, significant birthdays etc. I appreciate that these are not "essential" in the COVID travel era, but they are the reasonable pre-COVID expectations that most expats had when they left the country. Just knowing that you can be home in 24 hours from pretty much anywhere in the world for an important event or a disaster is an important part of the expat mental health equation, in my experience. And also now that I am the expat's A-based family rather than the expat myself, it's an important part of my mental health equation to know that my nearest and dearest can be with me in times of trouble and also in times of joy.

Consequently, I have no support for the inbound passenger limits. Given the ingenuity of human kind, I struggle to believe that we could not arrange a suitable arrival and quarantine set up if we really wanted to. And I just don't believe that there is a shortage of suitable empty hotels given our international and internal lockdowns and border closures.

I also do not support the forced keeping of people in 14 day quarantine in these circumstances, if they should be lucky enough to actually make it home, while they wait helplessly at some hotel for their relatives to die. Speaking again from my experience, some quality time before the death is probably of more value to those left behind than the actual funeral, although the ritual of the funeral is also important in the grieving process. The vast majority of people in quarantine are not COVID positive, so why not test them and then apply a risk based approach to PPE so that final visits might take place, even for those who have COVID. We are losing our humanity in this.