Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

100% correct. However, there has not been one single transmission recorded in Australia from someone who generated a false negative test, transmitted before they took & returned the negative result.

Not once.

There have been some testing positive days later such as someone from WA who flew in from Sydney. The 1st test came back negative & could have been 100% correct at that time but five days later she tested positive.

“When the first test happened, [case 1022] would have been exposed but they weren’t yet producing viral particles so they won’t be detectable by PCR,” Professor Clements said.

So more chance of the limo driver winning lotto two weeks in a row then that he caught CV from negative test air crew.

And of course there is no way to prove or disprove your suggestion.
Maybe the Northern Beaches was started by a person who had a false negative test and wasn't followed up because of the negative result.
I don't think it likely but impossible to disprove.
And has just as much probability as a lot of your "facts".

 

[oznflfan]

THIS FROM THE AGE FROM TWO BURNET INSTITUE DIRECTORS. DOESN'T LOOK GOOD FOR A LOW OR TO US REALISTICALLY ACHIEVABLE % WE ARE HOPING. I THINK BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS HOME QUARANTINE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS.

Some current modelling suggests that even with high vaccine coverage, “herd immunity” to stop transmission, illness and death from COVID-19 will only be possible with the addition of public health interventions.

Another critical issue is the management of Australian citizens and residents returning to the country from overseas travel. Again, models suggest that simply opening the borders will not be possible; there will be a need for ongoing border quarantine controls. However, the type of quarantine will vary; with improved community vaccination levels and vaccination of people returning to Australia, home-based quarantine will be possible for some people while others may need to stay in purpose-built government-controlled quarantine facilities.

With all we will learn from overseas, and with all we know about the effectiveness of public health measures here and elsewhere, Australians should be confident that an appropriate ‘Vaccines-Plus’ formula can be found in the coming months. One that builds on the back of high vaccination coverage to involve judicious use of public health measures such as masks, home testing, home quarantine for some and purpose-built quarantine for high-risk travellers that mitigates against airborne transmission.

It may be many years, if ever before we return to our pre-COVID lives, but this plan offers the opportunity to live life in a way that COVID-19 does not dominate every daily conversation and decision while keeping Australian’s safe from the worst pandemic pathogen in over a century.

 

[louie-m]

Meanwhile in victoria…

Victoria cannot afford to lose F1 grand prix, Nationals warn

I have no doubt it’ll go ahead and we will be patronisingly lectured to about how they’ve made it “covid safe”. Meanwhile
borders stay closed to Australian citizens without £££££s in the bank.

The Australian F1 round is scheduled for 21 November. The previous round, in Brazil, is on 7 November. If it happens, it certainly won't be with 14 days quarantine, unless the Brazilian round is cancelled. The reaction to that will be interesting.

 

[arrow]

If you look at the UK, vaccinations done in decreasing age brackets, and now there is only 50% populated, and this has resulted in 20,000 - 30,000 cases per day with 4 / 5 / 6 deaths a day.

That should be our target; there is a noticeable disconnect between cases and deaths at 40%+ vaccinations

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

That should be our target; there is a noticeable disconnect between cases and deaths at 40%+ vaccinations

presumably because that 40% means the high risk age brackets (or other 1a/b) have a pretty good coverage

 

[Kimpos]

The Australian F1 round is scheduled for 21 November. The previous round, in Brazil, is on 7 November. If it happens, it certainly won't be with 14 days quarantine, unless the Brazilian round is cancelled. The reaction to that will be interesting.

The Vic Government made noises many many weeks ago about how the F1 show travels in bubbles, so it's all good. As a Victorian currently living in the US, trying to visit family (whether I travel or they do, happy for either to be "allowed" to occur), it's just one more example to me of the disgraceful hypocrisy of all levels of government. What's really frustrating is the numbers of Australians that will eat it up as proof of how the covid zero policy works for them- see, we don't need to leave to go to a world event

 

[Pushka]

The Vic Government made noises many many weeks ago about how the F1 show travels in bubbles, so it's all good. As a Victorian currently living in the US, trying to visit family (whether I travel or they do, happy for either to be "allowed" to occur), it's just one more example to me of the disgraceful hypocrisy of all levels of government. What's really frustrating is the numbers of Australians that will eat it up as proof of how the covid zero policy works for them- see, we don't need to leave to go to a world event

Assuming of course that SA hasn't banned Victoria as a travel place or Victoria hasn't blocked SA people entering. Covid Stockholm rules.

 

[louie-m]

The Vic Government made noises many many weeks ago about how the F1 show travels in bubbles, so it's all good. As a Victorian currently living in the US, trying to visit family (whether I travel or they do, happy for either to be "allowed" to occur), it's just one more example to me of the disgraceful hypocrisy of all levels of government. What's really frustrating is the numbers of Australians that will eat it up as proof of how the covid zero policy works for them- see, we don't need to leave to go to a world event

That would explain why many of them have had Covid then!

I still can't see the lack of quarantine going down well. As far as I know, no exemptions from quarantine have been allowed - the Australian (tennis) Open players had to do it. Although I doubt the Brazilian round will go ahead, so maybe the Victorian authorities will dodge a bullet there.

 

[mviy]

I cannot see the tennis players willing to do 14 days quarantine again when they don’t have to do it elsewhere.

 

[Lynda2475]

And that was a missed opportunity from the Prime Minister - he should not have allowed the arrivals cap to be reduced without a condition that no special exemptions for Grand Prix, Aus Open or any other sporting event.

If the Vic government can manage to keep all these sports people and their entourages (which well exceeds the low caps Vic were taking) safe using hotels, then why cant they do so for returning Aussies?

Why the PM didn't let them reduce the cap of unvaccinated arrivals to half, but force them to double cap for fully vaccinated arrivals (limiting it to Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and AZ)?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And that was a missed opportunity from the Prime Minister - he should not have allowed the arrivals cap to be reduced without a condition that no special exemptions for Grand Prix, Aus Open or any other sporting event.

If the Vic government can manage to keep all these sports people and their entourages (which well exceeds the low caps Vic were taking) safe using hotels, then why cant they do so for returning Aussies?

Why the PM didn't let them reduce the cap of unvaccinated arrivals to half, but force them to double cap for fully vaccinated arrivals (limiting it to Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and AZ)?

I think one of the reasons might be the cost. The AO was privately funded, IIRC something like $30 million for 1200 players and staff. I'm not sure ordinary returnees would be willing to pay that sort of money.

As someone 'stuck' in Australia, I welcome the distraction provided by events such as the AO and F1, and having them live.

 

[Lynda2475]

I think one of the reasons might be the cost. The AO was privately funded, IIRC something like $30 million for 1200 players and staff. I'm not sure ordinary returnees would be willing to pay that sort of money.

Except the tennis players didn't pay anything, Tennis Australia (which is partially funded by government grants - Tennis Australia receives roughly $5.5 million in government grants every year) and state governments of Vic and SA (which are tax payer funded) covered the cost of their HQ, policing.

Whilst arriving Aussies do have to pay for their HQ.

The cost isn't the real issue, its the hypocrisy that they can find a way to do things safely for sport but not for Aussies? The virus doesn't respect celebrity status.

If we didn't have pitiful caps on arriving Aussies I couldn't care less about exemptions for sports brats but i abhor the double standard.

Those sports events are no more important to the local economies than international students are (in fact because students stay years, they support many more aspects of the economy from housing, to local retail, to tourism).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Except the tennis players didn't pay anything, the AO (which is partially government funded) and state governments of Vic and SA (which are tax payer funded) covered the cost of their HQ. Whilst arriving Aussies do have to pay for their HQ.

The cost isn't the real issue, its the hypocrisy that they can find a way to do things safely for sport but not for Aussies? The virus doesnt respect celebrity staus.

If we didn't have pitiful caps on arriving aussies I couldn't care less about exemptions for sports brats but i abhor the double standard.

Those sports events are no more important to the local economies than international students are (in fact because students stay years, they support many more aspects of the economy from housing, to local retail, to tourism).

The Vic government did not pay towards the cost of AO HQ, it was privately funded.

Maybe the Vic government did go 'above and beyond', but the benefits to the public were also greater for such a prestigious event.

 

[JB expat]

The Vic government did not pay towards the cost of AO HQ, it was privately funded.

Maybe the Vic government did go 'above and beyond', but the benefits to the public were also greater for such a prestigious event.

So, let's discuss "benefits for the public" - opening borders to the vaccinated, making certain jobs conditioned on being vaccinated, not allowing the unvaccinated to participate in events with more than 10 people, and your favorite - allowing vaccinated business travelers to travel for business with home quarantine/testing. I'd take the AO, F1 "exemptions" if everything else is measured against "benefits to the public" rather than "benefits to protect those who refuse to be vaccinated". There can be more openness without a significant increase in risk - and without risk to the healthcare system being inundated (the original goal re: COVID management). But I won't accept the sports exemption without anything done to accommodate "regular people" who have been fully vaccinated.

 

[Pushka]

The Vic government did not pay towards the cost of AO HQ, it was privately funded.

Maybe the Vic government did go 'above and beyond', but the benefits to the public were also greater for such a prestigious event.

SA Government paid for the stars who came to Adelaide for their quarantine. As a thankyou they were to put on a show when it ended.

 

[louie-m]

Well that was quick. Formula 1 and MotoGP are off.

 

[olliekeighley]

On a slightly different tangent, when the travel ban is lifted - what will happen to children under 12 who cannot get the vaccine? Will they be allowed to travel and if so mandatory quarantine on return, even if parents are fully vaccinated? can't find anything to confirm they will be exempted or not.

 

[oznflfan]

On a slightly different tangent, when the travel ban is lifted - what will happen to children under 12 who cannot get the vaccine? Will they be allowed to travel and if so mandatory quarantine on return, even if parents are fully vaccinated? can't find anything to confirm they will be exempted or not.

I PROMISE I'LL BE GOOD AND NOT STATE NEGATIVE POLITICAL POINTS ANYMORE.

Ollie, this would not have even been thought about by gov't until hopefully early next year, and chances are best case if you both vaccinated under 12's return all free and easy, worst case they (and maybe even us parents even if vaccinated) get a test before leaving your chosen country of visit (great visit for kids for idea's, especially ages 4-8, is Legoland Malaysia, close, cheap, awesome place and hotel onsite).

 

[RAM]

On a slightly different tangent, when the travel ban is lifted - what will happen to children under 12 who cannot get the vaccine? Will they be allowed to travel and if so mandatory quarantine on return, even if parents are fully vaccinated? can't find anything to confirm they will be exempted or not.

Given the precedents to date - those details should be available around 2 years after the borders are opened.

Or perhaps the Australian Govt will devolve that responsibility to the States as they have with the current quarantine requirements ludicrous as it seems.

I'd hate to be an insurance company trying to work out their CV-updated Travel Insurance policies for Australians.

 

[JB expat]

On a slightly different tangent, when the travel ban is lifted - what will happen to children under 12 who cannot get the vaccine? Will they be allowed to travel and if so mandatory quarantine on return, even if parents are fully vaccinated? can't find anything to confirm they will be exempted or not.

All very good questions - I doubt they have any idea...their plan is barely an outline of an idea.

I also have child-vaccine-travel questions around whether I will be able to get travel insurance that covers my under 12 children should they get covid while travelling and frankly, whether I want to travel with them while there is still a risk to their health (a personal decision). My main goal is to see my parents in the USA - and I definitely want to bring my children, but not at the risk of their health so I will wait to see what happens. That being said, I am very keen on getting them vaccinated and if the USA offers vaccinations to over 8's before Aus does (and we are allowed to travel), my children will come with me and get vaccinated there.