Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[justinbrett]

Christmas may be very tight, though I think is doable. No doubt subject to some restrictions..

For that timeline there are enough ordered vaccines, but are there enough people willing to get vaccinated by then?
There are for example probably a number of over 60's still stubbornly holding out for Pfizer/Moderna and if the vaccines are opened up to over 12's before the over 60's that may slow things down a little.

Depends if it is state based or national.

NSW / ACT almost guaranteed to get to 80% based on single jabs (and the assumption most people come back for their second)
VIC / SA / TAS / NT should get there
WA / QLD are in real danger of not getting there.

If you look at covidlive.com.au it says we will reach 80% of first doses target on October 1st, in 36 days.

So, as long as we reach that target, then you'd assume everyone who took their first jab is willing to get the second, so then its just a question of supply.

At the current 7 day average we are 80% vaxxed on 16th November. Add a month on top for good will and hey presto, international travel on December 16th.

Picture at a state level is very different. Pull NSW out of those stats and the averages plummet.

 

[mviy]

Once NSW is getting close to 80% then one would expect the government will be prioritising sending supplies to the other states If there's insufficient to go around (which there shouldn't be at that point) to try to get the other states up to that level.

 

[mviy]

Christmas may be very tight, though I think is doable. No doubt subject to some restrictions..

For that timeline there are enough ordered vaccines, but are there enough people willing to get vaccinated by then?
There are for example probably a number of over 60's still stubbornly holding out for Pfizer/Moderna and if the vaccines are opened up to over 12's before the over 60's that may slow things down a little.

Well extra doses or getting the doses sooner gives options for doing more kids this year and or opening up Pfizer and Moderna to the elderly sooner.

Even though kids under 16 don't count to the targets to open up it could give the Feds a bit of flexibility. If we haven't quite reached 80% of the adults but have done a decent number of kids that could give an excuse to open up even not reaching the 80% target for adults.

 

[OATEK]

Re: Home quarantine - for those of us who are fortunate enough to be able to fully work from home, a 1 (even 2) week home quarantine is something fairly easy to accept (even if not our first choice). I would imagine that there are a significant number of seats that would be filled by people who can do exactly this - not everyone who wants to travel, but between Syd & Melb flying populations, enough.

This is basically what it’s been like in the U.K. for the last few months (with the option of testing to release on day5/6) and it’s been fine for lots of us who can work from home. Devil is in detail tho as to whether the rest of the household has to isolate too (you didn’t in the U.K., which is ridic but there you go).

We are semi-retired, and if we can stand travelling together for a month or two will be able to cope with a week or two at home afterwards. Appreciate that many others will have different circumstances. Be more than happy to isolate at home for a week, a little less so for 2 weeks, but will accept that as the cost for visiting family.

 

[justinbrett]

Once NSW is getting close to 80% then one would expect the government will be prioritising sending supplies to the other states If there's insufficient to go around (which there shouldn't be at that point) to try to get the other states up to that level.

No way at all, NSW needs every vaccine it can deliver to save lives. 90%, 95%, you don't stop at 80%.

The reason NSW is doing so well is because the AZ stigma is gone, nobody cares which one they get. The extra Pfizer NSW has got is not significant.

The reason why WA & QLD are lacking is not supply.

 

[mviy]

I'm not saying you stop supply of Pfizer and Moderna, but if the other states won't take much AZ if they are lagging behind they'll need to get them up towards the 80% target however they can.

 

[arrow]

Depends if it is state based or national.

NSW / ACT almost guaranteed to get to 80% based on single jabs (and the assumption most people come back for their second)
VIC / SA / TAS / NT should get there
WA / QLD are in real danger of not getting there.


Picture at a state level is very different. Pull NSW out of those stats and the averages plummet.

Given the states have "some" control the public health orders on "health" quarantine, hopefully NSW drops the hotel quarantine requirement once they get to 80%

 

[MooTime]

Once NSW is getting close to 80% then one would expect the government will be prioritising sending supplies to the other states If there's insufficient to go around (which there shouldn't be at that point) to try to get the other states up to that level.

Where do you get the idea there's a supply issue?

Do you know how many Pfizer & Moderna are coming in Late Sept & October.

80% in the bag by years end, no doubt.
We just wait for the announcements in due course.

 

[justinbrett]

I'm not saying you stop supply of Pfizer and Moderna, but if the other states won't take much AZ if they are lagging behind they'll need to get them up towards the 80% target however they can.

Not at the expense of NSW vaccinations.

There's enough Pfizer and Moderna to get them done by the end of the year. If they want to get there faster, they should be promoting AZ.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Supply of Moderna will soon be available and increased Pfizer supply also steps up.

It was already in the announced national plan to phase out AZ anyway. All states could have got there quicker by using more AZ, but overall supply of vaccines is ramping up anyway.

 

[justinbrett]

It was already in the announced national plan to phase out AZ anyway.

I believe that has been reversed. It will continue to be available as long as there is demand. It's making up a significant portion of NSW jabs.

Pfizer is expected at 1M/week and moderna 3M/month (say 0.75M/W), so that's 1.75M/week - but the federal government want to exceed 2M jabs a week.

 

[justinbrett]

Back to the topic, just saw a clip on the news about Qantas potentially moving the direct LHR flights to DRW instead of PER.

Mark McGowan seemed very rattled by it, and rattled off the reasons why Qantas needs to fly the route out of Perth.

I suspect that's the exact reaction Alan Joyce was after

 

[jrfsp]

I believe that has been reversed. It will continue to be available as long as there is demand. It's making up a significant portion of NSW jabs.

Pfizer is expected at 1M/week and moderna 3M/month (say 0.75M/W), so that's 1.75M/week - but the federal government want to exceed 2M jabs a week.

It looks like AZ is actually better longer term so would be surprised if it was phased out.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

interview with Joyce, i'm feeling better about my trip in december than i have for a long time, fingers crossed.

for what its worth EK is now taking reward bookings on flights from MEL and BNE, which only have 3/4 flights a week. SYD still has 7 days of flights but no rewards seats avail on them in all december, dont know if they are full or more likely just not taking rewards

 

[Princess Fiona]

I’m clinging to hope of UK at Christmas 2021. We need high vaccination rates. Hopefully the PM can find a way to get extra supply of vaccines or to bring forward existing supply.

I’m like you. Leave already booked. My brain knows deep down it likely won’t happen but my heart says it might and it’s keeping me ticking along right now quite nicely

 

[justinbrett]

I’m like you. Leave already booked. My brain knows deep down it likely won’t happen but my heart says it might and it’s keeping me ticking along right now quite nicely

I'm tipping the departures gates will be open but will take a bit longer for the arrivals gates. Probably unrestricted arrivals to start with (but still HQ with far reduced supervision), then home quarantine, then no quarantine.

 

[JB expat]

For me even though the border restriction is to be lifted by end of the year, I may still struggle to get out of Australia because of my 2 small kids (5 and 8). Without the certainty of using vaccines for children, I cannot see when I can get out of the country anytime soon. I would love to go to Europe or USA mid to late next year.

I feel the same - but given my parents live in USA - I will go alone to see them without my husband and children (until they are vaccinated). My parents are both over 80. I want to see them ASAP. Is this ideal, no - but it is more than I can do today.

 

[oznflfan]

Back to the topic, just saw a clip on the news about Qantas potentially moving the direct LHR flights to DRW instead of PER.

Mark McGowan seemed very rattled by it, and rattled off the reasons why Qantas needs to fly the route out of Perth.

I suspect that's the exact reaction Alan Joyce was after

MAKE HIM BEG FOR THE ROUTE TO COME BACK.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I believe that has been reversed. It will continue to be available as long as there is demand.

That was always in the plan that it could continue if there was demand.

Some people who have had AZ recently outside of NSW (where a more rapid second dose is being used) will be still having their second does in 10-12 weeks. And people will still be getting first doses of AZ in September even if demand drops to less than the original planned September total.

Balancing the drop off in AZ outside of SW in Sept is that the extra million doses of Polish Pfizer that has been added in. Plus the noises out of Canberra is that the ordered Pfizer and Moderna will occur more quickly. Hence already the "advances" to NSW, then Qld, and now in Vic (as in this is the week that the advance actually has started arriving at injection sites.

So all in all there should be enough dose available to still meet, if not exceed, the timeline announced by Frewen.

 

[antycbr]

Back to the topic, just saw a clip on the news about Qantas potentially moving the direct LHR flights to DRW instead of PER.

Mark McGowan seemed very rattled by it, and rattled off the reasons why Qantas needs to fly the route out of Perth.

I suspect that's the exact reaction Alan Joyce was after

There's a number of WA residents who love the nonstop service and as a way to use up FF points. Once it's gone, it'll be hard to get it back.

“All of the income we produce ... the revenue we produce for the Commonwealth government is keeping Australia alive, we shouldn’t be punished for that,” he said. - Qantas is a commercial business, not a government department.

“We put in place $15 million worth of improvement at the terminal. [Qantas] need to show some understanding and perhaps some gratitude to what the state government has done.” - unless there's a binding contract then Qantas will make commercial decisions in their best interests. Gratitude is not something that a publicly listed company can put in their report to shareholders.

Qantas considers shifting direct London flights from Perth to Darwin

The embattled carrier has flagged the possibility of moving its direct London flights to Darwin because of Western Australia’s ‘conservative’ border policies to the chagrin of state Premier Mark McGowan.

www.watoday.com.au