Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[antycbr]

That was always in the plan that it could continue if there was demand.

Some people who have had AZ recently outside of NSW (where a more rapid second dose is being used) will be still having their second does in 10-12 weeks. And people will still be getting first doses of AZ in September even if demand drops to less than the original planned September total.

Balancing the drop off in AZ outside of SW in Sept is that the extra million doses of Polish Pfizer that has been added in. Plus the noises out of Canberra is that the ordered Pfizer and Moderna will occur more quickly. Hence already the "advances" to NSW, then Qld, and now in Vic (as in this is the week that the advance actually has started arriving at injection sites.

So all in all there should be enough dose available to still meet, if not exceed, the timeline announced by Frewen.

Definitely. The way I think of it is every shot of AZ replaces a shot of Pfizer and Moderna which brings us forward in the schedule.

The commonwealth has utilisation data and will not give doses to one state where there is no demand to sit on a shelf.

 

[justinbrett]

That was always in the plan that it could continue if there was demand.

Some people who have had AZ recently outside of NSW (where a more rapid second dose is being used) will be still having their second does in 10-12 weeks. And people will still be getting first doses of AZ in September even if demand drops to less than the original planned September total.

Balancing the drop off in AZ outside of SW in Sept is that the extra million doses of Polish Pfizer that has been added in. Plus the noises out of Canberra is that the ordered Pfizer and Moderna will occur more quickly. Hence already the "advances" to NSW, then Qld, and now in Vic (as in this is the week that the advance actually has started arriving at injection sites.

So all in all there should be enough dose available to still meet, if not exceed, the timeline announced by Frewen.

Also once NSW starts to reach ~90% single jab and approach the maximum single jab rate (probably in around 4-5 weeks), the supply that would have gone to NSW can start going to other states. Currently 2/3 of NSW jabs are first doses, but that will flip soon and most will be second jabs, with the remainder going to other states.

I still think outside of NSW most people will need to book in advance for Pfizer/Moderna and the wait could be 2-3 months, there will always be a proportion of people who want to walk up and get AZ right away.

 

[Seat0B]

WA / QLD are in real danger of not getting there.

So using the analogy that ran upthread, if they WA/QLD have chosen to miss the train, they should be left waiting at the station for the next train. It's not fair or appropriate to expect that the train that is already full of compliant people and scheduled to leave, should be waiting for them.

Or more appropriately for AFF, if the flight has boarded and is ready to shut doors and push back, then the people who missed the boarding call will have to really run the length of the terminal to make it to the gate before all that happens. Or else they will be transferred to the "next available flight", whenever that may be. Maybe the flight will be held for a very short time some status pax (which is what we are all doing already, waiting for people who did not yet have a chance to get the vax to get it now), but not for long even if you are a P1.

 

[justinbrett]

Or else they will be transferred to the "next available flight", whenever that may be. Maybe the flight will be held for a very short time some status pax (which is what we are all doing already, waiting for people who did not yet have a chance to get the vax to get it now), but not for long even if you are a P1.

Nah, no show. Fare forfeited.

 

[hb13]

This network is very Sydney centric, which makes me think that QF, Sydney Airport, the NSW Government and the Federal Government are all on the same page. The international border will open to NSW and any other state that wishes to join.

This also has the potential benefit of working to avoid a further federal bailout of QF.

I'm ok with this. Even though I'm a Melbournian, I'd be happy to go to Sydney and meet family and friends there.

 

[Seat0B]

MAKE HIM BEG FOR THE ROUTE TO COME BACK.

...and then tell him he has got it back as long as he fills out a few simple online forms, delay uploading the forms, and keep changing them regularly and make him re-apply. Wait until he starts cheering and doing something to make it happen, and then tell him that circumstances have changed and it is going back via DRW to keep risks low, and cycle through that a few times. Let him see how the little people live.

 

[antycbr]

I'm ok with this. Even though I'm a Melbournian, I'd be happy to go to Sydney and meet family and friends there.

Depends. Is Dan sticking with Donuts?

 

[Seat0B]

Nah, no show. Fare forfeited.

I am totally down with that! They should have read the small print.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It looks like AZ is actually better longer term so would be surprised if it was phased out.

Unfortunately logic does not come into assessing AZ for many.

Perfectly good vaccine that we had/have in abundance and should have been used more, and still using more. But there you go.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Depends. Is Dan sticking with Donuts?

Any Donuts in ScoMo's National plan post 80% Fully Vaxxed Vaccination Rate? Because that is what Dan has stated he is following.

Before that, who would say no to some donuts if you can get them.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Speaking of the various Governments, and others like Qantas, all being on the same page with respect to international travel that "same page" is currently the one below (well until it gets updated).

The Qantas press release today certainly reflects what is shown below.

 

[burmans]

Where do you get the idea there's a supply issue?

Do you know how many Pfizer & Moderna are coming in Late Sept & October.

80% in the bag by years end, no doubt.
We just wait for the announcements in due course.

Because we are in August not Late September/October?

 

[justinbrett]

Speaking of the various Governments, and others like Qantas, all being on the same page with respect to international travel that "same page" is currently the one below (well until it gets updated).

The Qantas press release today certainly reflects what is shown below.

View attachment 256540

I think unless every state agrees to the plan in full tomorrow, the national average won't be a factor, and states will open as they meet the target.

Argument being, if WA is closed to NSW, NSW doesn't need WA to have 70/80% to open the border to UK/USA.

As has been stated time and time again by the PM, the national plan does not detail requirements for lifting state imposed lockdowns, they are a matter for individual states. So the NSW 70/80 plan is only based on NSW pers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As has been stated time and time again by the PM, the national plan does not detail requirements for lifting state imposed lockdowns, they are a matter for individual states. So the NSW 70/80 plan is only based on NSW pers.

Not sure why that is at all relevant to my post on international travel resuming for all Australians and what is in the currently agreed plan.

Lockdowns interfere with both international and interstate travel plans that individuals may wish to make and the lack of certainty, and disruption, they can cause can limit people from making international or interstate travel plans whether it be for business, or pleasure.

 

[MooTime]

Because we are in August not Late September/October?

Have you heard any news of anybody missing out on a jab cos no supply?

Supply not an issue.

 

[justinbrett]

Not sure why that is at all relevant to my post on international travel resuming for all Australians and what is in the currently agreed plan.

Lockdowns interfere with both international and interstate travel plans that individuals may wish to make and the lack of certainty, and disruption, they can cause can limit people from making international or interstate travel plans whether it be for business, or pleasure.

With respect 2/3 of my post was commenting on part of the national plan you highlighted "rates across the nation", as I predict think that won't be the metric going forward - it will be state specific.

The final part was an expansion of that, in that some are saying NSW can't lift lockdown until the nation gets to 80%, which is definitely not the metric for NSW.

 

[Jousams]

There's a number of WA residents who love the nonstop service and as a way to use up FF points. Once it's gone, it'll be hard to get it back.

“All of the income we produce ... the revenue we produce for the Commonwealth government is keeping Australia alive, we shouldn’t be punished for that,” he said. - Qantas is a commercial business, not a government department.

“We put in place $15 million worth of improvement at the terminal. [Qantas] need to show some understanding and perhaps some gratitude to what the state government has done.” - unless there's a binding contract then Qantas will make commercial decisions in their best interests. Gratitude is not something that a publicly listed company can put in their report to shareholders.

Qantas considers shifting direct London flights from Perth to Darwin

The embattled carrier has flagged the possibility of moving its direct London flights to Darwin because of Western Australia’s ‘conservative’ border policies to the chagrin of state Premier Mark McGowan.

www.watoday.com.au

Lol, the policies and postures of the WA and to a lesser extent QLD premiers are costing the QF Group way more than $15m. QF should tell WA to stick its $15m where the sun Don’t shine.

It’s also not like there is any alternative airline for WA unless they wanna go with VA and Jayne “people will die” Hrdlicka.

 

[justinbrett]

A missed the bit about using A330 for BNE-CONUS. That's quite unexpected.

I wonder if we'll have the same issue QF8 had when it was B744 that sometimes couldn't make it all the way to BNE and diverted to various places in the south pacific.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Really good interview with Joyce, speaking of international travel and also FF seats!

 

[mviy]

Love this Front Page for the NT News:

"We've previously asked for the NT to be put back into QaNTas. Now that push is closer than ever cough the airline talks of a DARWIN HUB FOR LONDON DIRECT FLIGHTS"

The AFR gets in on the action too with "Joyce warns WA on travel plan"