Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[JB expat]

While I’m not surprised with any of these poll results from the Age, I’m disappointed re: international travel. Have to go back and look at how many people they asked.

 

[jakeseven7]

While I’m not surprised with any of these poll results from the Age, I’m disappointed re: international travel. Have to go back and look at how many people they asked.

n=1600 so it’s pretty substantial.

But remember we are only at 30% vax, as people get vaccinated people get more confident and avenge their mindsets. So it’s actually a quite high % of people wanting international travel given less than a third of us are vaccinated!

 

[JB expat]

Given that Aus is measuring percent vaccinated based on population over 16 and the rest of the world is using total population as it’s base, how likely is it that potential bubble countries won’t open to Aus until Aus hits some % of total population which is not the figure being tracked (although it is available for all to see)?

 

[Must...Fly!]

You have to also remember that it's driven by the current situation of low or no COVID, and maintaining it that way. By the time October rolls around, it wouldn't be surprising to see Victoria with daily case loads in the 300 range despite restrictions. And other states with further outbreaks. There will increasingly be no reason for the expense and the administrative web of hotel quarantine

 

[antycbr]

You have to also remember that it's driven by the current situation of low or no COVID, and maintaining it that way. By the time October rolls around, it wouldn't be surprising to see Victoria with daily case loads in the 300 range despite restrictions. And other states with further outbreaks. There will increasingly be no reason for the expense and the administrative web of hotel quarantine

Especially as we let people we know are definitely positive isolate at home now in both states. What’s the point of having people in HQ? You have more risk of getting it in the community now…

 

[33kft]

Given that Aus is measuring percent vaccinated based on population over 16 and the rest of the world is using total population as it’s base

That's just plainly not true. The BBC are expressing the UK rate in exactly the same way (16+) if you care to go look as I just did, and international comparisons are done as doses administered per 100 people which neither considers the age or the number of doses for any individual.

 

[Pushka]

Especially as we let people we know are definitely positive isolate at home now in both states. What’s the point of having people in HQ? You have more risk of getting it in the community now…

I posted this earlier today in the Aus thread.

So what am I missing?

We must currently have several thousand people in NSW who have tested positive to COVID. They can isolate at home if well enough. We have perhaps up to 5000 people coming in from overseas who have tested negative to Covid just prior to flying, but they go straight to med hotels so can't isolate at home, having regular tests, and no contact. Even though negative at the time. And currently just one or two of that cohort may eventually test positive. But if at home (they could come under the same category as a close contact) - isolate and test etc so no risk.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

n=1600 so it’s pretty substantial.

But remember we are only at 30% vax, as people get vaccinated people get more confident and avenge their mindsets. So it’s actually a quite high % of people wanting international travel given less than a third of us are vaccinated!

Nothing like news.com.au polls. if its run off an age website, then it might be Vic centric???

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Given that Aus is measuring percent vaccinated based on population over 16 and the rest of the world is using total population as it’s base, how likely is it that potential bubble countries won’t open to Aus until Aus hits some % of total population which is not the figure being tracked (although it is available for all to see)?

Its tracked on ourworldindata.org - just won't be referred to by Australian authorities. Might need a Mary Louise McLaws, etc to point it out.

 

[Must...Fly!]

NSW might not get the jump after all.

No travel for NSW until other states catch up on vaccination

The Trade Minister confirmed a travel bubble with Singapore will commence as soon as 80 per cent of Australians are fully vaccinated.

www.smh.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I posted this earlier today in the Aus thread.

I think at the moment one point is NSW authorities are still trying to keep it in the current zones during this period of undervaccination. In turn, it keeps the stress to "manageable" levels for hospitals.

I think theoretically no issue if they lived or have a place to live in an LGA of concern - send them straight through.

Post automatically merged: Aug 29, 2021

NSW might not get the jump after all.

No travel for NSW until other states catch up on vaccination

The Trade Minister confirmed a travel bubble with Singapore will commence as soon as 80 per cent of Australians are fully vaccinated.

www.smh.com.au

Could NSW not pull the average to 80% by themselves?

 

[kamchatsky]

NSW might not get the jump after all.

No travel for NSW until other states catch up on vaccination

The Trade Minister confirmed a travel bubble with Singapore will commence as soon as 80 per cent of Australians are fully vaccinated.

www.smh.com.au

Well I guess AFFers will need to start writing to your local MPs about this, because some states will now take all its time to get their residents vaccinated.

 

[mviy]

Could NSW not pull the average to 80% by themselves?

They would have to go well past 80% to do that by which time other states like VIC may well have reached 80%

It’ll probably be that the nation reaches 80% and then a date is set that allows a few more states that are close on projections to reach 80% as well.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

They would have to go well past 80% to do that by which time other states like VIC may well have reached 80%

It’ll probably be that the nation reaches 80% and then a date is set that allows a few more states that are close on projections to reach 80% as well.

hasnt the 3 month extensions on the travel ban being going and going for ages around the 15th of sept / 15th of dec? I can see them being cautious and wanting to wait till 15th dec.

Although will they still need to keep those travel restrictions in place if they are planning on stopping unvaccinated people from having freedoms of vaccinated ?

 

[mviy]

They can cancel the travel ban at any time if they want to.

 

[Jousams]

They would have to go well past 80% to do that by which time other states like VIC may well have reached 80%

It’ll probably be that the nation reaches 80% and then a date is set that allows a few more states that are close on projections to reach 80% as well.

It’s likely that the second dose timeframe estimates currently being surfaced in the (fake) news media are conservative as they are based on the 7day average of second doses, however recently there has been a skew toward giving first doses, which will inevitably inversely switch in the coming weeks.

journalists are too dumb to realise this.

we could be having these conversations sooner rather than later. My money is on end of October.

 

[Seat0B]

I posted this earlier today in the Aus thread.

And I have been saying for months that it is an anomaly at least to allow people with COVID to isolate at home (because they are A-Based) and make people who may or may not have it go to risky and expensive HQ (because they are Overseas Based). I have been repeatedly howled down by posters here saying things like "yes but, the people from Overseas are more likely to have it/might have a worse variant/might not be trusted to actually adhere to the rules/there is no COVID in the community so any risk is too high".

I didn't agree with those arguments then, and I certainly do not agree with them now. There is no longer any need for any HQ at all for people coming to NSW/ACT/VIC, and especially if they are double-vaxxed. It's just beyond ridiculous.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

It’s likely that the second dose timeframe estimates currently being surfaced in the (fake) news media are conservative as they are based on the 7day average of second doses, however recently there has been a skew toward giving first doses, which will inevitably inversely switch in the coming weeks.

journalists are too dumb to realise this.

we could be having these conversations sooner rather than later. My money is on end of October.

You would think you could look at the predictions for 80% first dose and just add 4 weeks (I know there is some places still doing a longer wait after astra but probably only an amount that would be eclipsed by another 1 or 2 weeks pfizer's given). Think Moderna is 28 days between jabs too.

Covid live currently showing 46 days variance between 80 - 1st and 80 - 2nd, seems too heavy imo

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s likely that the second dose timeframe estimates currently being surfaced in the (fake) news media are conservative as they are based on the 7day average of second doses, however recently there has been a skew toward giving first doses, which will inevitably inversely switch in the coming weeks.

journalists are too dumb to realise this.

we could be having these conversations sooner rather than later. My money is on end of October.

A lot of estimates use the 7 day average of the second jab occurring - but to be more accurate, in some cases, it will be 6 weeks after 80% first jabs is reached (eg NSW), in other places it might be longer more like 9-10 weeks (eg Tasmania, some Pfizer 3 weeks and some 12 weeks Astra Zeneca.)

 

[jakeseven7]

They would have to go well past 80% to do that by which time other states like VIC may well have reached 80%

It’ll probably be that the nation reaches 80% and then a date is set that allows a few more states that are close on projections to reach 80% as well.

Great so now the uselessly slow states like WA and QLD are going to handbrake us all…