Dec 31 is the 'Elite Cliff' we've been waiting for, where most of the elites of the world will have not requalify as per program criteria and are pending downgrade.
Qantas have painted itself into a dark corner with recent status extensions.
Sadly, those who haven't been able to requalify on merit are no longer frequent flyers in this new world.
Airlines are not losing potentially downgraded members because those members are unable to requalify on merit.
These 'elites of 2019' are already gone. They're unable to display a willingness to fly or spend or engage in the ways of the program. Extending status for these people now do airlines more damage than any perceived goodwill (this is where Qantas has royally messed up -- by using status extensions as a way to smooth over operational issues).
The best thing Velocity could do right now is to tell the market they won't be extending anyone status for free. In the interim, make it easy for people to retain status on merit (but not too easy). Charge a fee to retain, offer status credits on transfer bonuses, offer triple or quad status credits to the entire market, prepay credits and earn SC, sell extensions directly.... there's no shortage of levers to pull. Extending for free is probably the worst thing Velocity could do...rip the band-aid off now and go after the active flyers instead of trying to hold on to some pipe dream that elites of 2019 are magically going to start flying again. But hey, what do I know?
A handful of airlines (US) did not provide free status extensions in 2021, and all of those airlines now have greater number of active elites today than in 2019. Weird hey?
Randy Peterson (founder of flyertalk) recently said it's going to take most airlines 5 years to get back to the '2019 elite levels'. This is entirely due to free status extensions and lack of activity in trying to capture the market who is actively spending, flying and engaging today. The fact is that there is no excuse for a smart loyalty program to not be performing better today than in 2019 on all metrics. It all comes down to who is *really* running these programs - is it short-term-focused shareholders and bureaucratic management or customer-obsessed visionaries?