Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

In further on Tuesday 27 November 2018, QF19 (1225 hours SYD - MNL) is expected to depart at 1415 with arrival at 1910 hours this evening, 100 minutes late. The 1900 ex MNL redeye, QF20 should be able to push back at about 2020.

UPDATE: This flight has A332 VH-EBS and did not depart until 1453, taking off at 1509. QF expects arrival at 1941, later than predicted above. QF20 looks to be further delayed until about 2050 out of MNL, but normally on a gate-to-gate basis picks up time provided it is not overly delayed waiting for ATC clearance ex the Philippine capital. MNL airport can only handle about 40 movements an hour and like some Australian airports has outgrown its capacity.

EBS had arrived from PVG on QF130 at 1253, 188 minutes late as QF129 had been badly late yesterday.

 

[Melburnian1]

Additionally on 27 November 2018, QF1517 (1655 hours SYD down to CBR, B717 VH-YQT) was airborne at 1745 so arrival is predicted as 1825, 35 late.

 

[Quickstatus]

@Melburnian1 ,

What’s your take on the weather about to hit NSW/QLD tomorrow and how it might affect the majors airports?

I would imagine the airlines would have some contingencies at the ready - I wonder what they would be....

 

[Melburnian1]

@Melburnian1 ,

What’s your take on the weather about to hit NSW/QLD tomorrow and how it might affect the majors airports?

I would imagine the airlines would have some contingencies at the ready - I wonder what they would be....

Based on previous such occurrences, it very much depends on when it hits and (naturally) intensity. (I'm no weather expert).

On Christmas Day 2011, I was at Melbourne Airport in late arvo when a most intense storm hit. Part of the international check in area was flooded (roof leak) and flights were in chaos. Due to other passengers on cancelled domestic flights, I was able to be rerouted on my international flight (as the one I booked got the flick).

Wednesday (like Tuesday) tends to be the least busy weekday(s) so that's a blessing in disguise as fewer will be affected.

Can airlines 'plan' for a 70mm minimum forecast rain dump in Sydney at an uncertain time, the forecast issued by BOM? I doubt it. For most of Oz, that's an extremely large amount of rain in a 24 hour period, let alone shorter downpours. Tropical intensity is it not?

Paranoia is uncalled for but those who have tickets that can be changed for no fee, and the luxury of flexibility in travel plans might be advised to try to travel early in the morning to or from Sydney, or alternatively defer travel until Thursday.

Although not publicised in the media, in the last couple of weeks we've already had a couple of nights where thousands of passengers did not reach their intended destination on the same day. Our airlines do not guarantee to 'uplift' us on the same day we have booked, a condition of travel that one suspects many Australians continue to be blissfully unaware of.

One of the biggest problems for airlines, like any passenger transport business, must be how staff rapidly become 'out of position' - not where they ought be according to rosters (assuming domestically they have to change aircraft). And MEL has already been accused of timetabling more flights than it can handle per hour: perhaps not as big a problem on a Wednesday as on a Friday arvo. AFF member AviatorInsight recently made some rather direct comments in the VA tread about how "lovely" MEL is to operate into. He didn't mince words.

With SYD and MEL such important cogs in the national domestic airline network, one would have to say that if we have a storm, 60 per cent of nationwide flights (at least) could be adversely affected.

 

[Quickstatus]

Tomorrow BOM predicting Heavy rain at SYD with winds around 30kmh from the East in the morning then from the South by the afternoon.

So lots of wet runway and at least in the morning strong crosswinds - this is around max for some aircraft types/airlines?. Perhaps limited operations on the 16/34 runways tomorrow am until the afternoon.

 

[Melburnian1]

Tomorrow BOM predicting Heavy rain at SYD with winds around 30kmh from the East in the morning then from the South by the afternoon.

So lots of wet runway and at least in the morning strong crosswinds - this is around max for some aircraft types/airlines?. Perhaps limited operations on the 16/34 runways tomorrow am until the afternoon.

Quickstatus, recently on two consecutive days (Thurs and Fri), largely single runway ops in SYD (runway 25) resulted in average two hour delays, with a few flights more than three hours late. It didn't take long for delays to commence. If anything, they tended to compound during teh day. There'd be a stack of reasons behind this, including ATC mandating new 'controlled departure times' (there's a newish term for these) at the other end, such as in MEL or BNE.

 

[Quickstatus]

MEL weather tomorrow is winds from south so main runway would be ideal. Possible shower. Benign.

BNE not too bad either. It should be able to use its main runways.

Just Syd might be the problem

 

[Silvia]

Continuing tonight, QF1585 SYD-HBA 18 55 did not depart until 20 53, 117 late, arrival is suggested about 22 26, 96 late (VH-YQT)

 

[jase05]

Not looking great tomorrow.
0630 QF404 MEL-SYD cancelled
0715 QF410 MEL-SYD cancelled
0845 QF488 MEL-SYD cancelled
0900 QF419 SYD-MEL cancelled
1130 QF429 SYD-MEL cancelled

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on 27 November, QF487 (1945 hours SYD down to MEL,. B738 VH-VZZ) was airborne at 2025. Arrival should be at

Not looking great tomorrow.
0630 QF404 MEL-SYD cancelled
0715 QF410 MEL-SYD cancelled
0845 QF488 MEL-SYD cancelled
0900 QF419 SYD-MEL cancelled
1130 QF429 SYD-MEL cancelled

Interestingly, those cancellations are unbalanced. Perhaps it reflects a desire to have as few aircraft in SYD as possible.

 

[jase05]

QF20 MNL-SYD scheduled for a 2000 departure didn’t leave until 2142 (102 minutes late). Should arrive in SYD at 0807 (62 minutes late)

QF24 BKK-SYD was late departing at 2030 (150 minutes late) and now has an arrival time into SYD at 0926 (116 minutes late)

 

[Quickstatus]

It’s not too bad weather wise at SYD.

Both runways 16L and 16R operating for departures and arrivals. Crosswind a relatively sedate 15kts

Flooding in roads generally due to blocked drains

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on the extremely wet - torrential - morning in Sydney on Wednesday 28 November, no domestic flights appear to be departing until about 0730, 0745 or 0815 hours. QF1461, the 0620 hours SYD - CBR is another cancellation.

The first down to MEL - QF401 - had a nominal 0730 hours amended departure but that time has passed. QF500, the first at 0600 hours up to BNE is supposedly departing at 0800. QF471, the 0615 to MEL is showing as pushing back at 0800. There are many more examples.

These delays will compound with crews out of position, aircraft failing to make up time, longer than usual turnarounds...you name it. Bad day to travel.

Not as much rain has been recorded at Sydney Airport as at the main Sydney (non airport) rain gauge but that may change. Tropical intensity on the radar.

 

[Silvia]

There's already a message from Sydney Airport advising that they are expecting several delays and cancellations today due to weather. They are down to one runway at the moment again. This means that there are a lot of aircrafts on holding patterns.

Some of the DH4/DH3 operated flights also cancelled, QF2221 SYD-WGA, QF2016 SYD-WTB, QF2020 SYD-ARM, QF2205 SYD-ABX, QF2106 SYD-CFS, QF2002 SYD-TMW.
This will also impact the return legs that were meant to run back from these regional cities into Sydney.

It looks like it will be an interesting day in/out of Sydney.

 

[Melburnian1]

There's already a message from Sydney Airport advising that they are expecting several delays and cancellations today due to weather. They are down to one runway at the moment again. This means that there are a lot of aircrafts on holding patterns...

"Several" is typical of the understatement that Australia's airports use. Many!

 

[Silvia]

"Several" is typical of the understatement that Australia's airports use. Many!

That's right, they should have said, brace yourselves for another day of packed lounges and many cups of coffee before your flight departs! or wait for the accommodation voucher if your flight doesn't leave today.

Hopefully it won't be as bad as last week, but it seems that Sydney has been getting poorer weather this year.

 

[Quickstatus]

Welcome to Sydney. It does not take much to jam up the place.

It’s not torrential rain. Just rain. Maybe heavy rain in parts.

 

[Melburnian1]

...Hopefully it won't be as bad as last week, but it seems that Sydney has been getting poorer weather this year.

Time will tell but the huge delays in departing from SYD this morning suggest that it will be as bad, if not worse, than Thursday and Friday last week. Unfortunately these delays are very difficult to recover from but it depends on individual aircraft rosters: midweek, some may have a generous turnaround or two in the middle of the day.

Air traffic control may also be holding aircraft at origins. QF408 (A332 VH-EBJ) is the 0700 hours ex MEL that took off at 0744. Nominally, arrival is estimated at 0901, 37 late.

QF605 (VH-VXT, the 0610 hours BVNE - MEL that was in the air at 0647) should arrive at 1004 hours, 34 late.

 

[jb747]

So lots of wet runway and at least in the morning strong crosswinds - this is around max for some aircraft types/airlines?. Perhaps limited operations on the 16/34 runways tomorrow am until the afternoon.

You'll end up with a couple of problems. Using the shorter runway, because it's into the wind is logical, but of course, slows things a lot. But, if the runway is wet, even with the wind, it may be too short for some landings.

Crosswind limits can vary with the weather. If the runway is dry, they may be as high as 40 knots or so, but they can come down to around 25 if the runway is wet.

 

[Flyerqf]

Time will tell but the huge delays in departing from SYD this morning suggest that it will be as bad, if not worse, than Thursday and Friday last week. Unfortunately these delays are very difficult to recover from but it depends on individual aircraft rosters: midweek, some may have a generous turnaround or two in the middle of the day.

Air traffic control may also be holding aircraft at origins. QF408 (A332 VH-EBJ) is the 0700 hours ex MEL that took off at 0744. Nominally, arrival is estimated at 0901, 37 late.

QF605 (VH-VXT, the 0610 hours BVNE - MEL that was in the air at 0647) should arrive at 1004 hours, 34 late.

QF has already cancelled 50 flights in/out SYD today apparently.