QF to Europe returns to the Kangaroo Route (via SIN)

[drron]

Does that count guests?

 

[Ansett]

So does this mean that all the potential overcrowding see members and or there guests turned away as has happened elsewhere during peak times?

 

[dairyfloss]

Sorry - deleted what some just saw. I had an issue with the chart and couldn't edit to replace in the same post for some reason...
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Looks good.

Here are the other oneworld SIN flights based on the current timetable.

<flight list removed>

QR and UL are in T3, MH is in T2. The rest of oneworld is in T1, though CX moves to T4 soon (connected to T1/2/3 via bus gate in T2).

AY sends pax to the QF lounge. BA has its own lounge near the QF lounge with capacity of 225. The other oneworld airlines use SATS or Danta lounges. I'd expect maybe 1/3 of the pax getting sent to SATS/Danta lounges to head to the BA or QF lounges when they are open.
When I've been at SIN early when flying on JL38, I've used the QF lounge, then moved to the SATS lounge when QF closes.

So that's another 12 oneworld flights where some pax may head to QF/BA and 4 (AY, BA) that will.

Should also add the 3K flights where some smaller % of pax may have access, probably more than the other oneworld airlines, and 3K does have 18 aircraft based out of Singapore

There are 12 3K flights that depart (at 1545, 1645, 1705, 1755, 1800, 1915, 1930, 1935, 1935, 1950, 2000 and 2030) while the QF lounge is open, while allowing for a reasonable amount of time in a lounge before boarding would be called. 180 Y seats on the above flights. I assume 10-15% would have lounge access via status.
There is also JQ8 departing to MEL at 2100.

I'd think the % would be lower on 3K flights. It's only QF status, not OW status and lots of local/tourist traffic on 3K from what I've seen

Yes agreed. i've been there for an early 3K departure (ie within an hour or so of lounge opening and i've been one of only 3 or 4 people in the lounge).

OK - so I've upgraded from the 'back of an envelope' to something a little more complex, here! Hopefully gives a better potential view of the QF SIN lounge traffic, before and after QF returns to LHR via SIN on the 388s. I've taken into account the majority of comments and suggestions, and have the following assumptions to reference.

• On QF metal: lounge eligible pax are all J/F, plus 20% of Y/Y+. 95% of eligible pax visit the lounge.
  • QP guest passes was one other that I hadn't added... thoughts on how many per QF flight are likely, If it matters...?
• On 3K/JQ metal: lounge eligible pax are J (for 787), plus 5% of Y. 90% of eligible pax visit the lounge.
• On other OW metal: lounge eligible pax are F/J, plus 15% of Y/Y+. Visit rates are aided by AFF comments:
  • CX & JL are 50% of a 1/3, and CX is gone in 2018 as they'll be in T4 with a presumably much nicer lounge!
  • BA at 15% of eligible pax coming to have a look next door
  • AY at 90% as it is the designated lounge
• On EK metal: lounge eligible pax are F/J, plus 15% of Y/Y+. Only 5% of eligible pax visit the QF lounge.

It's all just for fun, of course, but if there's any glaring issues then let me know and I can tweak.
Oh, and don't forget to BYO camp chair between 6:30PM & 8:00PM after March 25 2018!



Cheers,
Matt.

 

[dairyfloss]

Does that count guests?

:shock: No! Good call, but crikey... how do I calculate that one. Anyone want take a stab at a common rate per eligible pax?

 

[Ansett]

:shock: No! Good call, but crikey... how do I calculate that one. Anyone want take a stab at a common rate per eligible pax?

I would say some where between 30 and 40%

 

[dairyfloss]

I would say some where between 30 and 40%

We're going to need a new terminal at this rate...

 

[kermatu]

Pure guesswork on my part, but while 30 to 40 per cent sounds high, given the number of kids in this lounge it might be close.

 

[mviy]

The LAX First lounge is operated by QF, but is actually a oneworld First lounge, serving QF, BA, CX, QR, JL, LA.

The J Lounge is a Oneworld Lounge but operated by QF. The FLounge is a proper QF FLounge which gives access to OneWorld partners.

 

[dairyfloss]

I would say some where between 30 and 40%

Pure guesswork on my part, but while 30 to 40 per cent sounds high, given the number of kids in this lounge it might be close.

Presuming this really only applies to Y/Y+ pax, as well... or do we think there are F/J pax guesting ineligible pax from other cabins? Perhaps that is more like 5-10% for F/J to guest? Kids are a little trickier, as QF basically allow you to bring in the whole family, age dependant, whereas other OWs have their own rules. I think we'll just stick with 30-40% and be done with it, there.

 

[moa999]

I think some of the % s are high.
20% of Y/Y+ would be closer to 10-15% imho (from when I've sneaked a peak at status sheets on board.

And other OW airlines even less given they are mostly further away gate wise

But the point remains that things will get worse

 

[coriander]

But the point remains that things will get worse

Looks as if QF1's passengers won't be too crushed (2215-2355h), but for QF2's passengers (1725-1930h), it could be SRO.

 

[mviy]

But the point remains that things will get worse

Indeed and some days will be worse than others. There can be days with abnormally high numbers of passengers with status for any flight.

 

[dairyfloss]

I would say some where between 30 and 40%

Pure guesswork on my part, but while 30 to 40 per cent sounds high, given the number of kids in this lounge it might be close.

I've gone with 35% of Y/Y+ guesting 1 other pax, and left F/J out of the equation, as I suspect they are generally with their own

I think some of the % s are high.
20% of Y/Y+ would be closer to 10-15% imho (from when I've sneaked a peak at status sheets on board.

And other OW airlines even less given they are mostly further away gate wise

But the point remains that things will get worse

I've revised QF Y/Y+ status to 15%, and the volume is then made up with guests.

As for the other OW airlines, the numbers were very low already, as while they had the same status rate, their likely visit % brought the numbers right down.

Indeed and some days will be worse than others. There can be days with abnormally high numbers of passengers with status for any flight.

The charts I've been posting are presuming full loads, but certainly more status pax or more being interested to go to the QF SIN Lounge on a given day, vs some other lounge, will have a big impact.

Here's the latest, and probably final traffic estimate, with these last few tweaks added (guests in, and QF status % down a little):



Cheers,
Matt.

 

[mviy]

QF's website is showing 320SCs and 21,600 Frequent Flyer points for Business Saver return SIN-LHR on QF1/QF2 (looks like the Singapore site is still the old site). So based on those numbers the correct numbers for earn for MEL-SIN-LHR should be the same as SYD-SIN-LHR. Will be interesting to see when the site gets updated to reflect this.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ha, Qantas is kidding re people loving that lounge.

I have no idea what 'real champagne' is. But the quote from QF is interesting. Don't know why the PR bit needed to be published singing the lounges praises ('people love it'). All that needed to be printed was that there ar eno plans for a special F lounge.

 

[levelnine]

Here's the latest, and probably final traffic estimate, with these last few tweaks added (guests in, and QF status % down a little):

Absolutely brilliant analysis. Thanks for taking the time to produce it.

The important point to note is that the lounge doesn't have to be full for it to be an uncomfortable and decidedly sub-par experience.

Once you approach 80%+ capacity (roughly 370+ people), it is likely that people are going to have to queue for food, drinks, toilets, showers etc and that people are going to have to ask strangers to move their bags off seats and/or sit next to strangers. Hardly a premium experience.

 

[farstar]

oops thought it said kangaroo island via SIN and was confused.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

" a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Australian Business Traveller that "at this stage there are no plans to build a First Lounge in Singapore.""We have an award-winning lounge in Singapore that our customers love," the spokesperson said. "It has been designed with future growth in mind and will be able to support the extra customers using the space as a result of the network change."

Sounds like someone at QF wrote a press release after having a few too many glasses of real champagne. The sheer volume of people, and almost always loud or unruly children, makes it quite unpleasant at times. The staff is really good and I do like the dishes of the day. However I now use the BA lounge as QF is the only lounge I leave with headaches that aren't alcohol induced.

 

[dairyfloss]

Absolutely brilliant analysis. Thanks for taking the time to produce it.

The important point to note is that the lounge doesn't have to be full for it to be an uncomfortable and decidedly sub-par experience.

Once you approach 80%+ capacity (roughly 370+ people), it is likely that people are going to have to queue for food, drinks, toilets, showers etc and that people are going to have to ask strangers to move their bags off seats and/or sit next to strangers. Hardly a premium experience.

You're very welcome! I'm a bit of a geek for this kind of stuff, so not much of a chore when the right subject matter is at play!

And you're spot on with regard to comfort, even a ways below capacity. The 460 that is referenced would mean every couch, seat, stool and lean-to is taken, but it probably it only takes 250 to make it feel pretty full, especially if the majority are in the lounge zone.

Something different will need to happen to make it work at the peak. What that something is remains to be seen.

Cheers,
Matt.

 

[dairyfloss]

I reckon AusBT missed their chance on headlining this article on First treatment at SIN, today.

I would have gone with "Sweet 'F' All - What to expect on Qantas' best ticket, in the world's best airport"

Cheers,
Matt.