QF's Asia announcement

[markis10]

You right! I didn't say they were restarting quickly, maybe in 10 years when the deal with Emirates ends. It will take at least that long to restock the pantry

By which time there will be a need to replace the 747s and A330s, given the massive year both of the bigger suppliers have had, early slots are unlikely to be available when you join the party late, and have a history of backing out on deals with costly cancellations, affecting your buying power.

 

[Pvcmenace]

As Markiss has said, there is no fleet growth for QF, it's all about downsizing to save QFi..

Once people leave QF for another carrier be it SQ/EK they will be unlikely to come back

Maybe so, but by reducing their international cost base, competitive pricing can lure people back as they still have a strong domestic brand.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So yes they may not be perfect but there is not another airline that can match the above....

for Australian domestic travel I guess there is not another airline. But at least several other international ones I can think of that match what you state above.

i think the logic on the FF program requires some consideration. you might earn double points as a WP, but you're paying double the points for an award + extraordinarily high fees and charges. AA is 90K one way AU-Europe in F. And access to preferred seating, F class lounge access, confirmed upgrades... The money saved on fuel surcharges alone by redeeming an AA award rather than a QF one would almost buy enough miles for a return biz class to Asia on CX via AA.

 

[Pvcmenace]

By which time there will be a need to replace the 747s and A330s, given the massive year both of the bigger suppliers have had, early slots are unlikely to be available when you join the party late, and have a history of backing out on deals with costly cancellations, affecting your buying power.

Doesn't the Qantas group have over 100 320neos on order which have improved range to get into Asia from ports such as PER and ADL

 

[markis10]

Despite last years groundings reducing the performance for Nov 11, figures out today show QFs market share continues to contract for international passengers:

[TABLE="width: 370"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Share of passengers carried[/TD]
[TD]Nov-11[/TD]
[TD]Nov-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Qantas Airways[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]18.2%[/TD]
[TD]17.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Singapore Airlines[/TD]
[TD]9.2%[/TD]
[TD]9.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Virgin Australia[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]7.3%[/TD]
[TD]8.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emirates[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]8.2%[/TD]
[TD]8.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jetstar[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]7.9%[/TD]
[TD]8.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air New Zealand[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]8.4%[/TD]
[TD]7.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Cathay Pacific Airways[/TD]
[TD]5.5%[/TD]
[TD]4.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Malaysia Airlines[/TD]
[TD]3.7%[/TD]
[TD]3.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Thai Airways International[/TD]
[TD]2.7%[/TD]
[TD]3.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AirAsia X[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.0%[/TD]
[TD]2.9%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

For non self loading freight is even worse, while passenger traffic is to a certain extent showing increased LCC threats, cargo should not have the same pressure:

[TABLE="width: 318"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Share of freight carried[/TD]
[TD]Nov-11[/TD]
[TD]Nov-12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Qantas Airways[/TD]
[TD]17.7%[/TD]
[TD]15.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Singapore Airlines[/TD]
[TD]16.5%[/TD]
[TD]15.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emirates[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]11.6%[/TD]
[TD]13.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Cathay Pacific Airways[/TD]
[TD]8.3%[/TD]
[TD]8.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Malaysia Airlines[/TD]
[TD]6.7%[/TD]
[TD]6.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Air New Zealand[/TD]
[TD]4.8%[/TD]
[TD]4.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Thai Airways International[/TD]
[TD]4.5%[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jetstar[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2.3%[/TD]
[TD]2.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Etihad Airways[/TD]
[TD]2.6%[/TD]
[TD]2.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]United Parcel Service[/TD]
[TD]2.8%[/TD]
[TD]2.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

And in a month where seasonal traffic is not influencing travel, we see Perth Singapore in the Top 5 !

[TABLE="width: 370"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Top five city pairs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Passengers[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Nov-12[/TD]
[TD]% of Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD]Auckland[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 117 786[/TD]
[TD]4.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 112 051[/TD]
[TD]4.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Melbourne[/TD]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 93 660[/TD]
[TD]3.8%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Melbourne[/TD]
[TD]Auckland[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 85 446[/TD]
[TD]3.5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 82 598[/TD]
[TD]3.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 735"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 4"]Table I International Passengers by Uplift/Discharge City Pairs (a)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foreign[/TD]
[TD]Australian[/TD]
[TD]Year ended[/TD]
[TD]Year ended[/TD]
[TD]Year ended[/TD]
[TD]% of[/TD]
[TD]% Change[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Port[/TD]
[TD]Port[/TD]
[TD]November 2010[/TD]
[TD]November 2011[/TD]
[TD]November 2012[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]2012/11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auckland[/TD]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 407 955[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 407 352[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 361 652[/TD]
[TD]4.6%[/TD]
[TD]-3.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 093 029[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 129 819[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 254 270[/TD]
[TD]4.3%[/TD]
[TD]11.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 923 778[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 057 919[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 058 616[/TD]
[TD]3.6%[/TD]
[TD]0.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 913 609[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 960 638[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1 011 513[/TD]
[TD]3.4%[/TD]
[TD]5.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hong Kong[/TD]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 949 376[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 939 881[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 943 895[/TD]
[TD]3.2%[/TD]
[TD]0.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auckland[/TD]
[TD]Melbourne[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 781 187[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 895 150[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 931 102[/TD]
[TD]3.2%[/TD]
[TD]4.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 894 190[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 956 314[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 879 860[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[TD]-8.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Denpasar[/TD]
[TD]Perth[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 719 735[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 802 288[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 847 902[/TD]
[TD]2.9%[/TD]
[TD]5.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auckland[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 706 029[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 779 383[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 835 752[/TD]
[TD]2.8%[/TD]
[TD]7.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD]Brisbane[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 697 799[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 712 167[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 803 747[/TD]
[TD]2.7%[/TD]
[TD]12.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Top 10 City Pairs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9 086 687[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9 640 911[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9 928 309[/TD]
[TD]33.7%[/TD]
[TD]3.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Other City Pairs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17 529 465[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18 420 353[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19 507 508[/TD]
[TD]66.3%[/TD]
[TD]5.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ALL CITY PAIRS[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26 616 152[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28 061 264[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29 435 817[/TD]
[TD]100.0%[/TD]
[TD]4.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

http://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...al_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx

 

[JohnPhelan]

Can you tell me where this was announced?

If I look at the QF website today for a SYD - SIN booking in June or August, it is still showing W as being available on QF5/6, at fairly reasonable prices too. Is it bait and switch?

I received an email from QF this morning, changing the time of my QF 5 flight for June, and also changing equipment to a 333.

I actually checked the website yesterday, and at that stage it still was showing the old times and a 744, so it is taking QF several days to get all of the changes uploaded into Amadeus.

 

[cmon0005]

Has anyone else noticed its been eerily quiet from QF since the announcement (other than replying to the media).

My guess is they probably didn't expect the big backlash from customers especially in PER and SA, as well as the media beat up around it all.

 

[Danger]

Like I said before, Qantas is a business and makes business decisions but then don't purport to represent themselves as being the airline for Australians and can the slogan "you're the reason we fly" as it all sounds a bit fake.

And it's time to lose the "Spirit of Australia" tagline. It's become a misnomer.

 

[Archphoto]

And it's time to lose the "Spirit of Australia" tagline. It's become a misnomer.

Maybe they'll change it to "Spirit of Eastern Australia".

 

[sjd]

I received an email from QF this morning, changing the time of my QF 5 flight for June, and also changing equipment to a 333.

I actually checked the website yesterday, and at that stage it still was showing the old times and a 744, so it is taking QF several days to get all of the changes uploaded into Amadeus.

Times for QF35/36 and QF5/6 have only updated today. I've just rebooked on to QF5 in Sept from QF35 (losing 40 SC, oh well). Was told over the phone that it was a B744 and the seat allocation looks like a reconfigured one. They are still selling PE on that flight too, so maybe no A330 except on the occasional flight.

 

[markis10]

Doesn't the Qantas group have over 100 320neos on order which have improved range to get into Asia from ports such as PER and ADL

Qantas have good short to medium range 150 seat and below assets, that is for sure, although this still leaves them ignoring markets today such as DRW etc, and Perth is already approaching 3000 pax a day to/from Singapore so thats really wide body potential, given customers preference for wide bodies east to west I am not sure Neos will do the trick.

 

[oz_mark]

No growth before 2017 at best:

767 - 23 to 0 over next four years.
747 - 18 to 9 over the next year or so
A330 - 19 to 30 if all JQ come across
787 - 14 to JQ
A380 status quo until 2016-17

So 9 747s and 23 767s are replaced by 11 A330s is the net effect until 2017?

Probably some 737s as well, but they are pretty much swapping 734 to 738 on a one for one basis.

 

[Pvcmenace]

Can only hope that they choose a more generous layout for the Neo's to make them more attractive, something like CX new domestic J service.

 

[xt_20]

QF still gets (some) of my business because I use the Qantas Woolworths EDR card for the 1:1 earn on Mastercard. Otherwise now that VA has A330s transcon, I can switch over.

 

[markis10]

Can only hope that they choose a more generous layout for the Neo's to make them more attractive, something like CX new domestic J service.

Doubt they will even have J, the 78 ordered will be essentially Orange as they start to arrive in 2016:

Of the 78 A320neos, approximately half will be for lease replacements, replacing older aircraft with more efficient, next-generation models. The other half will support base growth in the existing Jetstar Group businesses, and provide flexibility for the later part of this decade.

 

[RobJ]

Not a reply but a question for the board: I gather Malaysian, now admitted to oneworld, is pretty mean with transfer of points and status credits to QFF. Has anyone grasped the arithmetic?

 

[markis10]

Not a reply but a question for the board: I gather Malaysian, now admitted to oneworld, is pretty mean with transfer of points and status credits to QFF. Has anyone grasped the arithmetic?

Thats assuming they are buying them for the same price as other airlines, somehow I think not.

 

[drron]

And it's time to lose the "Spirit of Australia" tagline. It's become a misnomer.

The Spirit of Australia('s) Past.

 

[Pushka]

We just got the email too - flight QF036 has also changed to the 330 and leaves 30 minutes earlier and gets in at the same time.

 

[moa999]

No growth before 2017 at best:
767 - 23 to 0 over next four years.
747 - 18 to 9 over the next year or so
A330 - 19 to 30 if all JQ come across
787 - 14 to JQ
A380 status quo until 2016-17
So 9 747s and 23 767s are replaced by 11 A330s is the net effect until 2017?

Totally agree with that markis, but I think the 747s will be around for longer than the next year or so..
With the 787 battery issues, I cannot imagine Jetstar getting enough to release even 9 A330s in that time.
I suspect the unupdated 747s will be with us until at least end 2014.

Given the 767s have just had/are having the refit with ipads etc would not be surprised if they hang around until 2015/2016 at which point the 787-9 options will be activated and used as a replacement.