If, if, if. NZ are using Pfizer, with only 3 weeks required between doses and no hesitancy over AZ this seems more likely wishful thinking.
The Feds refuse to publish the numbers of how many AZ and Pfizer have been injected.
However I think that the graphic below reveals that there is a big bulge of second doses for those that have had AZ (ie in the main people over 50) still coming.
ie Second AZ doses only started quite recently.
The younger age groups have proportionately had more second doses than the older cohorts (see graphic at right), which as they have mainly had Pfizer makes sense.
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AZ started after Pfizer, and also with most people likely to stick to 12 weeks for the second dose (apart from say NSW)
Now some may opt out of their second AZ dose, but I also think the Delta Outbreaks in three states now will see this that were hesitating swing back somewhat.
So over the next 2 months I think that the second dose rate will surge quite appreciably, and by then the greater supply volumes of Pfizer, and Moderna too, will kick in to ramp it up further.
Thoughly sadly rather than being at whatever our rate is for VMax (ie as some will refuse, or cannot be vaccinated) in Oct, it will be more like NYE unless supply is ramped up further. Due the AZ hysteria some people will wait till late in the timeline to get Pfizer rather than AZ, and their holding out keeps we as a nation behind where we need to be.
If Oct had remained the date for VMax then the current Delta Outbreaks would be doing less harm than they are and quite possibly lockdowns would not have been required, or at least restrictions not as severe.