Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[N860CR]

Self-test, self-report, self treat. What could possibly go wrong?

To be honest, I can’t think of much that could. With our incredibly high vaccination rate, it’s apparent that this is literally no worse than a runny nose. We’ve ended up with the exact outcome we planned for. 99% of people need nothing more than a panadol and a lie down. The remaining 1% will get treatment. The same way people have always received treatment when they’re unwell.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

NSW (268,021 active – 21,000 public hospital beds, 884 public/private ICU beds)
[previous peak hospital/ICU: 1268/242 - September 2021]
31/12 21,151 positives, 148k tests, 832 hospital, 69 ICU
1/1 22,577 positives, 119k tests, 901 hospital, 79 ICU
2/1 18,278 positives, 90k tests, 1066 hospital, 83 ICU
3/1 20,794 positives, 96k tests, 1204 hospital, 95 ICU
4/1 23,131 positives, 83k tests, 1344 hospital, 105 ICU
5/1 35,054 positives, 108k tests, 1491 hospital, 119 ICU
6/1 34,994 positives, 111k tests, 1609 hospital, 131 ICU
7/1 38,625 positives, 112k tests, 1738 hospital, 134 ICU
8/1 45,098 positives, 116k tests, 1795 hospital, 145 ICU

Victoria (83,390 active (PCR) – 15,000 public hospital beds, 476 public/private ICU beds)
[previous peak hospital/ICU: 851/163 - October 2021]
31/12 5919 positives, 66k tests, 428 hospital, 54 ICU active, 43 ICU cleared
1/1 7442 positives, 63k tests, 451 hospital, 51 ICU active, 47 ICU cleared
2/1 7172 positives, 48k tests, 472 hospital, 52 ICU active, 46 ICU cleared
3/1 8577 positives, 44k tests, 491 hospital, 56 ICU active, 48 ICU cleared
4/1 14,020 positives, 60k tests, 516 hospital, 56 ICU active, 52 ICU cleared
5/1 17,636 positives, 59k tests, 591 hospital, 53 ICU active, 53 ICU cleared
6/1 21,997 positives, 64k tests, 631 hospital, 51 ICU active, 49 ICU cleared
7/1 21,728 positives, 68k tests, 644 hospital, 58 ICU active, 48 ICU cleared
8/1 24,928 PCR+, 89k tests, 5923/26,428 RAT+, 731* hospital,109* ICU active + cleared (*press conference revision)

Qld (52,619 active 7/1 – 13,000 public hospital beds, 408 public/private ICU beds)
31/12 3118 positives, 35k tests, 64 hospital, 1 ICU
1/1 2266 positives, 34k tests, 80 hospital, 1 ICU
2/1 3587 positives, 33k tests, 112 hospital, 5 ICU
3/1 4249 positives, 30k tests, 147 hospital, 10 ICU
4/1 5699 positives, 33k tests, 170 hospital, 11 ICU
5/1 6781 positives, 29k tests, 265 hospital, 10 ICU
6/1 10,332 positives, 34k tests, 284 hospital, 12 ICU
7/1 10,953 positives, 36k tests, 313 hospital, 14 ICU
8/1

SA (24,901 active 7/1 – 4500 public hospital beds, 161 public/private ICU beds)
31/12 2093 positives, 25k tests, 44 hospital, 4 ICU
1/1 2100 positives, 23k tests, 71 hospital, 4 ICU
2/1 2298 positives, 21k tests, 82 hospital, 7 ICU
3/1 2552 positives, 19k tests, 94 hospital, 9 ICU
4/1 3246 positives, 20k tests, 102 hospital, 12 ICU
5/1 3493 positives, 21k tests, 125 hospital, 12 ICU
6/1 3070 positives, 21k tests, 123 hospital, 12 ICU
7/1 3707 positives, 20k tests, 144 hospital, 16 ICU
8/1

Tasmania (6509 active (PCR+RAT) – 1500 public hospital beds, 38 public/private ICU beds)
31/12 137 positives, 451.1k coughulative tests, 3/4 hospital (3 out of 4 treated for covid)
1/1 428 positives, 452.6k coughulative tests, 1/2 hospital
2/1 404 positives, 454.3k coughulative tests, 3 hospital
3/1 466 positives, 1.9k tests, 2 hospital
4/1 702 positives, 2.0k tests, 1/3 hospital
5/1 867 positives, 2.4k tests, 0/5 hospital
6/1 751 positives, 2.9k tests, 1/5 hospital
7/1 1489 positives, 5.2k tests, 3/8 hospital
8/1 1051 PCR+, 4.4k tests, 1172 RAT+, 4/10 hospital

ACT (4511 active 7/1 – 1200 public hospital beds, 37 public/private ICU beds)
31/12 462 positives, 4.6k tests, 6 hospital
1/1 448 positives, 3.5k tests, 9 hospital
2/1 506 positives, 3.6k tests, 9 hospital, 1 ICU
3/1 514 positives, 3.5k tests, 11 hospital, 2 ICU
4/1 926 positives, 4.3k tests, 13 hospital, 1 ICU
5/1 810 positives, 3.4k tests, 16 hospital, 1 ICU
6/1 992 positives, 3.3k tests, 20 hospital, 2 ICU
7/1 1246 positives, 4.5k tests, 24 hospital, 3 ICU
8/1

NT (1181 active 7/1 – 1000 public hospital beds, 20 public/private ICU beds)
31/12 60 positives, 2.7k tests, 24 hospital
1/1 54 positives, 2.6k tests, 21 hospital
2/1 95 positives, 1.9k tests, 26 hospital
3/1 58 positives, 2.1k tests, 21 hospital
4/1 75 positives, 1.8k tests, 24 hospital
5/1 117 positives, 2.1k tests, 21 hospital, 1 ICU
6/1 256 positives, 2.5k tests, 23 hospital, 2 ICU
7/1 412 positives, 2.8k tests, 19 hospital, 2 ICU
8/1

WA (79 active 7/1 – 5900 public hospital beds, 179 public/private ICU bed)
31/12 1 local positives, 5.1k tests
1/1 2 local positives, 5.5k tests
2/1 1 local positive, 2.9k tests
3/1 2 local positives, 3.4k tests
4/1 0 local positives, 4.4k tests
5/1 5 local positives, 6.1k tests
6/1 1 local positive, 6.4k tests
7/1 0 local positives (Delta backpacker 21, Omicron HQ leak 2, second leak 1), 4.6k tests
8/1

 

[Lynda2475]

This is the perception. However there is a group of people at high-risk who it would be in their interest for the health authorities to know about as they would be eligible for treatment to prevent severe outcomes. The NSW text/email post-PCR+ linked to a screening questionnaire to identify them

Perhaps but talking with people who recently tested PCR+ in both NSW and Vic none were offered any health treatment, just sms to stay home and call ambulance if any serious effects. Basically if you are in the unlucky 1% of fully vaccinated previosuly healthy people to get seriously ill, you get nada until you go to hospital.

My understanding is the drugs that can prevent developing serious illness work best if administered before you get to stage of needing to be admitted to hospital but positives arent for the most part given any avenue to access these even of willing to pay.

 

[antycbr]

To be honest, I can’t think of much that could. With our incredibly high vaccination rate, it’s apparent that this is literally no worse than a runny nose. We’ve ended up with the exact outcome we planned for. 99% of people need nothing more than a panadol and a lie down. The remaining 1% will get treatment. The same way people have always received treatment when they’re unwell.

To be fair, a lot of people who don’t have covid right now could also do with a Bex and a lie down to calm them down.

Friends on social media calling for lockdowns… I ask so what happens exactly when we relax the restrictions again? They also prattle on about boosters, two friends who got boosted have also tested positive since… there’s no panacea for this, we just need some calm. Boosters help but don’t stop transmission.

 

[jase05]

Are they still bothering about which strain accounts for deaths or is that done and dusted now?
Have heard no commentary recently as to whether it is Delta or Omicron

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

To be fair, a lot of people who don’t have covid right now could also do with a Bex and a lie down to calm them down.

Friends on social media calling for lockdowns… I ask so what happens exactly when we relax the restrictions again? They also prattle on about boosters, two friends who got boosted have also tested positive since… there’s no panacea for this, we just need some calm. Boosters help but don’t stop transmission.

Just curious: how long since their booster did they get infected?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Because it is not a race?

Definitely not a RAT race........

Dangerous to extrapolate numbers, but using Vic first day reporting of RAT+, NSW could be about 11k RAT+ today and a further 37k RAT+ (historical). Hopefully Vic has a mechanism to remove potential duplicates (eg RAT+, but still waiting for PCR+ result and reported to RAT+)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Are they still bothering about which strain accounts for deaths or is that done and dusted now?
Have heard no commentary recently as to whether it is Delta or Omicron

NSW is still tracking Omicron at times. Its surveillance report to 25/12 notes 0 Omicron deaths. But the other complexity is they are not sequencing every case.

 

[antycbr]

Just curious: how long since their booster did they get infected?

Boosted Christmas Eve, infected 4 Jan most likely positive RAT 7 Jan.

 

[andye]

Extrapolating current projections, 1.5 billion Australians will be infected by mid-March .The peak will come, suspect NSW and Vic at a similar time.

 

[Lynda2475]

Are they still bothering about which strain accounts for deaths or is that done and dusted now?
Have heard no commentary recently as to whether it is Delta or Omicron

Media have still only reported one omicron death in Australia.

States are now only doing genome sequencing for hospitalised cases, and this lags case reporting.

Latest NSW survellance report shows:



• A large proportion of cases notified since 26 November have not had genomic sequencing.
• Of those who have had genomic sequencing, 1,105 Omicron cases have been confirmed. A further 2,925 probable Omicron cases have also been identified (i.e., those with S-gene dropout on PCR testing).
• A slightly higher proportion of confirmed Delta cases (4%) have been hospitalised, compared to confirmed Omicron (1.5%) and probable Omicron (0.5%) cases.

Despite omicron dominance, there is still material delta about, so if testing positive one would hope for Omicron over Delta everytime, not that there wil be anyway to tell using a RAT.

 

[antycbr]

Extrapolating current projections, 1.5 billion Australians will be infected by mid-March .The peak will come, suspect NSW and Vic at a similar time.

Is that the daily figure or coughulative?

 

[jase05]

1.5 billion Australians will be infected by mid-March

Are we all getting infected 6 times

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With a 'doubling' in Vic today, does anyone know if Vic Health sent out alerts for the QR check in based on RAT+???

 

[Lynda2475]

Extrapolating current projections, 1.5 billion Australians will be infected by mid-March

LOL as inaccurate as all government funded modelling to date, you cant infect 1.47B people that dont exist!

NSW is expected to reach peak Omicron infection by first week of Feb, provided we see no new nasty variant emmerge, the virus is going to run out of willing hosts pretty quickly here.

 

[Pushka]

LOL as inaccurate as all government funded modelling to date, you cant infect 1.47B people that dont exist!

NSW is expected to rach peak Omicron infection by first week of Feb, provided we see no new nasty variant emmerge, the virus is going to un out of willing hosts pretty quickly here.

For some reason the peak in SA is expected at the end of January

 

[Lynda2475]

For some reason the peak in SA is expected at the end of January

Same here, I just put Feb to gve some leeway, as test results are still lagging testing date by several days especially outside of metro area.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Is there something happening today? Unusually ABC reporting NT figures before Qld and ACT get out of the blocks.

594 positives, 17 hospital, 1 ICU

 

[Lynda2475]

Both Peter Dutton Josh Frydenberg and Malcom Tunbill are incuded in todays covid cases - no one is immune.

 

[Lynda2475]

From ABC blog:

VIC: There's going to be a few double-ups from people who took RAT and PCR tests​

Mr Foley is providing a quick breakdown of where those RAT results have come from.

• Over 5,900 of today's cases were from people who tested positive yesterday
• Over 6,700 were from Thursday
• About 5,000 were from Wednesday
• About 3,800 were from Tuesday
• About 2,500 were from Monday
• About 1,700 were from Sunday
• And about 620 were from Saturday

"So we don't want Victorians to think that the daily transmission has doubled overnight," he says.
"The reported figure has certainly significantly spiked based on that week's worth of unreported figures that we are now capturing in the system."

Mr Foley says "many" of those who returned a positive rapid antigen test are likely to have also undertaken a PCR test, "so there will be a degree of doubling".

Should be easy to remove doubling by asking people to enter their test ID for any subsequent PCR taken even if result not yet receivied when registering a RAT, and also ask people presenting for PCR following a +ve RAT to provide the RAT reprting / reference number they got when they loged that.

Or even easier, filter on medicare number, if same number appears more than once, only count it once.

Of course state governments like the larger scarier number as it is then easier for them to impose restrictions that way.