Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[oz_mark]

So who made the mistake about the 25 people at the party?

As you say @Pushka, states seem to have reacted based on the possibility of 25 positive (or soon to be positive) people roaming about greater Brisbane (at least). I am glad that has turned out to not be the case, but as we have often said before, the damage is now done.

And I can't see the states undoing their overreaction.

 

[Scarlett]

Scenario 1: someone mistyped 25 instead of 5 on initial notification email within Qld Health.

Scenario 2: guy honestly trying to help after finding out he's positive, gives details of 25 at event. Later, when police and fines are mentioned, quickly recants. No, I said five...

I'm sure there are others, but we'll never know.

 

[Must...Fly!]

And I can't see the states undoing their overreaction.

That's the thing that gets me. It's one thing to close the borders, but then we're waiting weeks and weeks of no cases in order to open things up again. I find it particularly annoying with WA as if I cancel one trip, reality for me is that it will be at least 12 weeks until I can arrange time off work again to see the family. Things need to be more sensible.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Scenario 1: someone mistyped 25 instead of 5 on initial notification email within Qld Health.

Scenario 2: guy honestly trying to help after finding out he's positive, gives details of 25 at event. Later, when police and fines are mentioned, quickly recants. No, I said five...

I'm sure there are others, but we'll never know.

And of course 2 to 5 (on the phone sounds similar to 25) lol

 

[Must...Fly!]

Maybe they had 20 pies for dinner, instead of 25 at dinner?

 

[oz_mark]

That's the thing that gets me. It's one thing to close the borders, but then we're waiting weeks and weeks of no cases in order to open things up again. I find it particularly annoying with WA as if I cancel one trip, reality for me is that it will be at least 12 weeks until I can arrange time off work again to see the family. Things need to be more sensible.

You're certainly not the only one in that position. Unfortunately, there seems no exit strategy to all of this. It could go on for some time yet.

 

[Lynda2475]

The brother is believed to be the missing link between the new cases and the cluster at Brisbane’s Princess Alexander Hospital a fortnight ago.

I think this is a cased of the SMH jumping the gun again, the interview I heard with JY on ABC today said the brother was shown to have had Covid antibodies via serology, meaning he has had Covid in the past and he "may be one of the missing links"but they had not yet identified any direct crossover between the brother and the Doctor. This means they may be other intermediary cases or that the brothers infection may be even older since he has fully recovered.

 

[drron]

I think this is a cased of the SMH jumping the gun again, the interview I heard with JY on ABC today said the brother was shown to have had Covid antibodies via serology, meaning he has had Covid in the past and he "may be one of the missing links"but they had not yet identified any direct crossover between the brother and the Doctor. This means they may be other intermediary cases or that the brothers infection may be even older since he has fully recovered.

Though that evidence strongly suggests that this last fellow infected his brother. But it means that the situation isn't as bad as first believed. It also is likely he is the link to the PA hospital. He did seem have travelled all over Brisbane.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

the interview I heard with JY on ABC today said the brother was shown to have had Covid antibodies via serology,

The factual part of what you posted is exactly the same as the factual part of what I posted.

On Sunday QLD’s Chief Health Officer Dr Jeanette Young said the brother of a 26-year-old man who tested positive for the virus on Thursday also had the virus. A 20-year-old man and a close contact of the older man was also found to have the same UK variant of the virus on Saturday.​

The brother is believed to be the missing link between the new cases and the cluster at Brisbane’s Princess Alexander Hospital a fortnight ago.​

​

Serology testing indicated the brother had contracted COVID-19 but had since recovered, Dr Young said. Under the circumstances, a lockdown was not required, she said.​

​

​

I tend to ignore the headline written by the sub-editor on any article as they are often designed to attract readers and are often misleading and I instead go by the content of the article which is normally more accurate. ie the part I posted.


Very few people in Australia have had CV19, and so unless he has had past likely exposure to cases this recent exposure would be likely to be the cause of his infection. Also a serology test of the type that the Health Departments use in cases of interest can provide clues on whether the infection may be more recent or much older.

 

[nutwood]

My only consolation out of all this is that at some stage in the future someone is going to make a fantastic satirical series out of it. John Clarke is seriously missed!!

 

[Lynda2475]

Well no what you posted was

The brother is believed to be the missing link between the new cases and the cluster at Brisbane’s Princess Alexander Hospital a fortnight ago.

Whereas Dr Young only said he may be a link, with no crossover identified it is extremely liley that there is at least one other person in between the Doctor and the Brother. So my statement about the head line and your bolded bit jumpting the gun stands.

Unless they can directly link the brother to the Doctor (or arrivals she caught it from) via a common contact or venue, you cant state the case is linked yet. Still a mystery case.

Though that evidence strongly suggests that this last fellow infected his brother. But it means that the situation isn't as bad as first believed. It also is likely he is the link to the PA hospital. He did seem have travelled all over Brisbane.

I agree it is most probable the brother infected the landscape gardener, what is not nearly as clear is how the virus got from Doctor to the Borther when there is no obvious link between the two. The brother has been all over town and lives in a household of 4-5 adults who also appear to have been very social.

So right now the mystery has only moved from the gardener to his brother, unless they are withholding/lying about not having a link between the doctor and the brother. Im not sure that makes it any worse nor any better than it seemed when the garder was announced. They still dont have a transmission event.

 

[nutwood]

Thanks, yes, the option for transit appears at the second stage of the application. I've gone from no flights since March last year to having about 16 sectors, 4 other states booked for the next 6 weeks - a new steep (and variable!) learning curve ...

It's probably appropriate at this stage to welcome you to the random Covid SMS club. You have entered your details and at any time, day or night, you may now receive an SMS from a well meaning State authority, imploring you to monitor yourself for symptoms.
As a senior member of this club, I can safely say that nothing you receive will be relevant to reality but it is very nice that they are thinking of you.

 

[drron]

Like the SMS we got from WA this afternoon.An update of border regulations at 11.57 am on 28/3.The update was that there is no change to the announcement made at 0001 on 27/3.IE you still can't come.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Whereas Dr Young only said he may be a link, with no crossover identified it is extremely liley that there is at least one other person in betwene the Doctor and the Brother. So my statement about the head line and your bolded bit jumpting the gun stands.

The media in multiple organisations must must be misquoting her then as the reports I have read report her as being a lot stronger in her language:. ie Probably the person and Highly likely is hardly may be a link.

Chief Health Officer Dr Jeanette Young said the new case is “probably the person responsible for transmitting the infection” between a doctor at the Princess Alexandra Hospital earlier in March and the recent cases.

He is not infectious but testing suggests he recently had the virus.

Contact tracers are currently interviewing the man to work out if there had been any crossover with the doctor.

“Remembering we won’t have absolute proof about this new case because he doesn’t have any virus that we can sequence but it is highly likely,” Young said.

‘MISSING LINK’ found in Brisbane COVID crisis as health authorities admit to house party numbers mix-up

The announcement comes as health authorities scramble to prevent another COVID outbreak.

7news.com.au

 

[Must...Fly!]

Like the SMS we got from WA this afternoon.An update of border regulations at 11.57 am on 28/3.The update was that there is no change to the announcement made at 0001 on 27/3.IE you still can't come.

Anyone would've thought they are free

 

[nutwood]

Interesting to recieve an e.mail from Business Tasmania all about mandatory premises check in, effective from 1st May 2021.

 

[Lynda2475]

How about a comon contact person or common venue visited between the doctor and the gardener? IF they cant find this, its not linked, its just hopeful thinking that they are without genomics.

Even where gemoic info is available if they dont find find patient zero or a direct link from pateint zero to the community, it gets counted as a mystery case.

Not that anyone should be worried about 2 cases and no serious illness, but to claim its solved is a stretch.

 

[nutwood]

Anyone would've thought they are free

Now there's a thought. Perhaps recipients of an unsolicited SMS should be paid a few cents for troubling to receive it. Considered logically, it's not unreasonable. You didn't request it and it consumes your time, whilst conferring no benefit.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

, but to claim its solved is a stretch.

Highly likely, or probably the person responsible is not claiming it is solved.

and again..

“Remembering we won’t have absolute proof about this new case because he doesn’t have any virus that we can sequence but it is highly likely,” Young said.

They have various clues including the bloodwork which suggests that he had Covid 19 recently.

They quite possibly have excluded some possibilities through the same testing.

 

[antycbr]

How about a comon contact person or common venue visited between the doctor and the gardener? IF they cant find this, its not linked, its just hopeful thinking that they are without genomics.

Even where gemoic info is available if they dont find find patient zero or a direct link from pateint zero to the community, it gets counted as a mystery case.

Not that anyone should be worried about 2 cases and no serious illness, but to claim its solved is a stretch.

The irony of the Queensland approach. When NSW couldn’t meet the arbitrary 48 hour deadline of direct linking, the “border clock” used to reset. Genomics weren’t enough for Jeanette Young, she wanted a direct link or else it was a Mystery Case...

In 2021 it’s all magically ok somehow.