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Clearly NZ - Aus is not a route that is upgraded. Not enough seats sold.
Except for those 2 times I got upgraded SYD-AKL/AKL-SYD on EK this month.... Y was oversold in both cases, and the push forwards from there was enough to fill J and bump us from J to F. School holidays are probably the exception where it comes to increased 'op-up-ortunities'... The start of school holidays was also the only time I ever got an op-up on QF, that time flying BNE-SIN.
Cheers,
Matt.