Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[DC3]

But is it a cunning plan?

Well, some AFFers seem to believe so.

 

[ayushamity]

Government hits back at Qantas on July restart for overseas flights

"Decisions about when international travel resumes will be made by the Australian Government."

www.executivetraveller.com

Looks like The government has taken a snap at Qantas and said they will not be pushed by their timeframe. They will decide when it is safe to open borders, not Qantas.

Guess we are back to the end of 2021 timeframe again

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Government hits back at Qantas on July restart for overseas flights

"Decisions about when international travel resumes will be made by the Australian Government."

www.executivetraveller.com

Looks like The government has taken a snap at Qantas and said they will not be pushed by their timeframe. They will decide when it is safe to open borders, not Qantas.

Guess we are back to the end of 2021 timeframe again

Or perhaps Qantas leaked something it wasn't supposed to?

 

[hb13]

Or perhaps Qantas leaked something it wasn't supposed to?

I love your optimism!

 

[DC3]

The Oz government is not in the business of running airlines. The airlines decide when they fly in/out of Oz. As for passengers, well that’s a different matter. .

The sooner Oz starts rolling out the vax, the better.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Or perhaps Qantas leaked something it wasn't supposed to?

Probably no coincidence that the announcement was made after January 1 for travel after July 1. Half financial years, and such.

 

[Flashback]

To give you an idea of the continued incompetence of the UK government...... This is what you're having to deal with and a good reason why international travel is looking more likely to not open up until 2022.

Government to introduce mandatory Covid tests for UK-bound travellers

Quarantine will still be required for arriving passengers

www.independent.co.uk

Nine months after the aviation industry started calling for testing to reduce the spread of coronavirus, the uk government is set to make a negative covid result compulsory for some travellers to the uk.

The independent understands pcr tests taken no more than 72 hours before departure to the uk will be mandatory only for foreigners; british nationals and those resident in the uk will be exempt.

Passengers affected by the new rule will need to show a negative test certificate before being allowed to board trains, ferries or planes to the uk.

The move would bring the UK into line with many other countries – except that few nations exempt their own citizens and residents from testing.

The cabinet office minister, Michael Gove, told Good Morning Britain: “We’ll be making announcements later today and in the days ahead about how our ports and airports are safe.

Obviously that makes perfect sense. If you're UK resident or a citizen, you won't be bringing COVID-19 back in with you. Only those dirty foreigners will. These guys .......... Classic UK government policy.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

To give you an idea of the continued incompetence of the UK government...... This is what you're having to deal with and a good reason why international travel is looking more likely to not open up until 2022.

Government to introduce mandatory Covid tests for UK-bound travellers

Quarantine will still be required for arriving passengers

www.independent.co.uk

Obviously that makes perfect sense. If you're UK resident or a citizen, you won't be bringing COVID-19 back in with you. Only those dirty foreigners will. These guys .......... Classic UK government policy.

Or perhaps it’s just to not make it harder for citizens and residents to go home.....where they have health care.

I previously expressed a similar concern on the Aust virus spread thread (I think) querying the purpose of PCR pre-tests being used and potentially resulting in some Aussies not being allowed to proceed on to repatriation flights and being stuck in a foreign country potentially without health care or splitting families where one say tested positive on a pre-test.

The science says the risk is ‘fully’ treated with 14 day quarantine. Pre-tests are flawed as a scientific approach and there is no real purpose except the mirage of making everyone on the repatriation flight feel safer.

 

[Flashback]

Or perhaps it’s just to not make it harder for citizens and residents to go home.....where they have health care.

I previously expressed a similar concern on the Aust virus spread thread (I think) querying the purpose of PCR pre-tests being used and potentially resulting in some Aussies not being allowed to proceed on to repatriation flights and being stuck in a foreign country potentially without health care or splitting families where one say tested positive on a pre-test.

The science says the risk is ‘fully’ treated with 14 day quarantine. Pre-tests are flawed as a scientific approach and there is no real purpose except the mirage of making everyone on the repatriation flight feel safer.

Yes but it essentially shows it is a political measure, not a health measure (noted that you agree with that, health security theatre!). Personally, I wasn't aware of the fact that if I had a UK passport in my hand when travelling COVID-19 knew to stay away from me..........

Given the loose self isolation arrangements that are in place here, the lack of enforcement and the massive live of reasons that exempt people from having to self isolate on arrival anyway it's just such a joke.

 

[dajop]

The science says the risk is ‘fully’ treated with 14 day quarantine. Pre-tests are flawed as a scientific approach and there is no real purpose except the mirage of making everyone on the repatriation flight feel safer.

If this was the case we wouldn’t require a day 2/3 test in quarantine hotels (just a day 10/11 test) and nor would there be the need for “hot hotels”. In Australian context- pretests might be useful for identifying individuals to take to “hot hotels” on arrival (although an arrival test surely could achieve the same outcome).

They also, perhaps more ethically problematically - could be used to prevent people who have the right to stay in Australia long term - but not permanently (i.e. visa holders) from coming.

But in the UK context - of what 50K new cases a day - it’s like using a couple of fire hoses to try and put out last summers bushfires.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Yes but it essentially shows it is a political measure, not a health measure (noted that you agree with that, health security theatre!). Personally, I wasn't aware of the fact that if I had a UK passport in my hand when travelling COVID-19 knew to stay away from me..........

Given the loose self isolation arrangements that are in place here, the lack of enforcement and the massive live of reasons that exempt people from having to self isolate on arrival anyway it's just such a joke.

Yes, but we’ve seen examples in many places where covid measures are not solely/mainly health measures - some are political, others are commercial - the list will keep growing

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

If this was the case we wouldn’t require a day 2/3 test in quarantine hotels (just a day 10/11 test) and nor would there be the need for “hot hotels”. In Australian context- pretests might be useful for identifying individuals to take to “hot hotels” on arrival (although an arrival test surely could achieve the same outcome).

They also, perhaps more ethically problematically - could be used to prevent people who have the right to stay in Australia long term - but not permanently (i.e. visa holders) from coming.

But in the UK context - of what 50K new cases a day - it’s like using a couple of fire hoses to try and put out last summers bushfires.

My understanding is that Australia does a Day 1-3 test so to minimise chances of spreading between people in the same room, maybe move to a hot hotel and to have the relevant health official monitor for seriousness.

There has been no example I’m aware of of a pre-test being used to allow repatriation with some sort of isolation on a flight straight to a hot hotel.

There has been some sporadic reporting of pre-tests being used to as a hurdle to getting on a repatriation flight.

 

[prozac]

To give you an idea of the vaccination rollout ..... BoJo has just stated that at absolute best, of the 9 groups specified to target first in the vaccine they're aiming to have the first dose (only) complete by mid-February. Until then England is in full lockdown including schools closed, etc. Getting vaccinations rolled out, even with Oxford being available is going to be a very long process.

 

[N860CR]

You do have to sympathize with the airlines quite a lot. By July, Qantas intl will have been shutdown for nearly 18 months. While each country has sustained some type of lockdown and border restrictions, Australia has taken it to a new level and it’s travel related companies that are suffering to protect our public health systems. Hopefully once everyone over 65 is vaccinated (which will likely be the case by July) common sense will prevail.

 

[ayushamity]

You do have to sympathize with the airlines quite a lot. By July, Qantas intl will have been shutdown for nearly 18 months

Agreed. Even if our family members are overseas, we can still lead a normal life and work and earn money and video chat everyday which is still better than the poor aviation and travel staff who cannot even do their career anymore.

The Premiers and Scomo seem intent on burning all aviation, travel and higher education industries to the ground.

And when Qantas tries to bring up hope, the fed gov shuts them down again. Back in June last year, Qantas kept on saying July 2021 as the restart so they were not out of line to assume that. But the feds have other plans.

Considering Greg Hunt keeps on saying Oct 2021 as all vaccinations complete, July represents about 50% vaccinations done.

Are we to assume that international travel will not resume until ALL vaccinations are complete ?? It certainly looks like it.

At this rate, they will have to reinstate jobkeeper to the original rate for aviation and tourism and continue it right until end of 2021. You can't really expect business to remain open for an entire year at the reduced rate.

 

[james4321]

At this rate, they will have to reinstate jobkeeper to the original rate for aviation and tourism and continue it right until end of 2021. You can't really expect business to remain open for an entire year at the reduced rate.

Agree 100%

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Agreed. Even if our family members are overseas, we can still lead a normal life and work and earn money and video chat everyday which is still better than the poor aviation and travel staff who cannot even do their career anymore.

The Premiers and Scomo seem intent on burning all aviation, travel and higher education industries to the ground.

And when Qantas tries to bring up hope, the fed gov shuts them down again. Back in June last year, Qantas kept on saying July 2021 as the restart so they were not out of line to assume that. But the feds have other plans.

Considering Greg Hunt keeps on saying Oct 2021 as all vaccinations complete, July represents about 50% vaccinations done.

Are we to assume that international travel will not resume until ALL vaccinations are complete ?? It certainly looks like it.

At this rate, they will have to reinstate jobkeeper to the original rate for aviation and tourism and continue it right until end of 2021. You can't really expect business to remain open for an entire year at the reduced rate.

The only 'formal' indication of criteria we have got on the international borders is what the Deputy PM has said.

.....copy and paste from a news.com.au article.

But just a few hours later, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said decisions about when international travel resume would be made by the government.

“International borders will be opened when international arrivals do not pose a risk to Australians,” he said.

“The Australian government is working on travel arrangements with countries, such as New Zealand, that have low community infections.

 

[ayushamity]

International borders will be opened when international arrivals do not pose a risk to Australians,” he said.

That to me indicates when we have everyone who chooses to be vaccinated can have the vaccine. i.e. October

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That to me indicates when we have everyone who chooses to be vaccinated can have the vaccine. i.e. October

The focus of the Deputy PM's statement is on international arrivals do not pose a risk. We don't know for example whether the vaccines limit spread.

 

[ayushamity]

The focus of the Deputy PM's statement is on international arrivals do not pose a risk. We don't know for example whether the vaccines limit spread.

Yea I know. Isreal is up to 15% vaccination and infections still rising. SO it looks like vaccines do not limit the spread. At this stage, it looks like vaccines do not prevent you from catching covid-19 and spreading it. it merely makes your symptoms go away so you don't know you are sick.

If the overseas case numbers do not drop in response to a vaccine, the only answer is wait until all of Australia is vaccinated. Because that way when the floodgates open and there is a surge in infections in Australia, atleast people won't get sick from catching COVID-19 from overseas.