Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Gold60]

I'm sure they will be, but I wouldn't bet on it being out of Australia...

lol, you could well be right here......

 

[ayushamity]

Pfizer vaccine to be started from mid Feb to high risk groups with target of 4 million vaccinated by March end.

Murphy says a 'significant portion' of the population will be vaccinated by 2nd quarter 2021 (helped by Astrazenca coming online resulting in mas vaccinations at scale)

Hmm...maybe, JUST maybe, if enough people are vaccinated by Q3 2021, travel could resume

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Or perhaps Qantas leaked something it wasn't supposed to?

I'm wondering if this was in fact the case?

The PM announced today the roll-out will start in Feb. This means vaccination should be complete by August...

Perhaps QF was confidentially briefed on this and let the cat out of the bag by opening bookings?

 

[ayushamity]

The PM announced today the roll-out will start in Feb. This means vaccination should be complete by August...

In fact, Murphy said significant percentage complete by JULY.

My my, the plot thickens....

 

[oznflfan]

In fact, Murphy said significant percentage complete by JULY.

My my, the plot thickens....

Alas, you have to take into consideration Murphy's Law, as COVID + Scomo, Hunt & Murphy will let you down.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

I'm wondering if this was in fact the case?

The PM announced today the roll-out will start in Feb. This means vaccination should be complete by August...

Which still makes a resumption of anything like free travel from July extremely unlikely.

There will obviously be no convincing you, but it's not as though Qantas revealed some secret government plan to open the borders from the middle of this year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Which still makes a resumption of anything like free travel from July extremely unlikely.

There will obviously be no convincing you, but it's not as though Qantas revealed some secret government plan to open the borders from the middle of this year.

Nothing to do with 'convincing me' or otherwise It was simply an observation based on the timing. I don't think QF revealed some secret government plan, but they may well have stolen the thunder from any planned Government announcement!

The Cth talks about under-promising but over-delivering. They say 'October' but all of a sudden QF announces resumption of flights from July. Something they said they wouldn't do unless people were vaccinated (no jab, no fly).

The Cth initially bats back against this, but then announces the start of the vaccination program 6 weeks early... with vaccinations to be completed in early August vs October.

 

[serfty]

The Cth talks about under-promising but over-delivering. They say 'October' but all of a sudden QF announces resumption of flights from July. Something they said they wouldn't do unless people were vaccinated (no jab, no fly).

The Cth initially bats back against this, but then announces the start of the vaccination program 6 weeks early... with vaccinations to be completed in early August vs October.

You are reading too much into it IMHO, Qantas need $$$ - now.

 

[ayushamity]

I know there is a lot of chaos at the moment with state borders, especially with the new strain in Queensland.

But I still think state borders and international borders will be opened at the same time (whenever that might be).

The state borders are acting like international borders. So the same conditions would apply for opening as well.

 

[ayushamity]

International arrivals halved for NSW, QLD and WA until15th Feb

Well, that puts a dampener on things. Should we push the timeline out to middle of 2022 now ?

 

[kamchatsky]

International arrivals halved for NSW, QLD and WA until15th Feb

Well, that puts a dampener on things. Should we push the timeline out to middle of 2022 now ?

As long as vaccines are effective against the new strain, the timeline should stay as is.

 

[Must...Fly!]

As long as vaccines are effective against the new strain, the timeline should stay as is.

Presumably given no firm/realistic timeline exists...we still don't know!

 

[kamchatsky]

Presumably given no firm/realistic timeline exists...we still don't know!

Well the Oracle of Qantas thinks it is July 2021!

 

[Must...Fly!]

Well the Oracle of Qantas thinks it is July 2021!

I wish I had that level of optimism! But at least I don't have the same cash flow problems...

 

[jakeseven7]

Well the Oracle of Qantas thinks it is July 2021!

Bain is probably dusting off the Deloitte 'for sale signs' they inherited with the Virgin purchase as we speak.... This will be killing them as well, with little/no regional presence anymore as well. Just as they are trying to build a new business. Awful timing.

 

[hb13]

International arrivals halved for NSW, QLD and WA until15th Feb

Well, that puts a dampener on things. Should we push the timeline out to middle of 2022 now ?

I'm not sure how we have any timeline before mid-2022. The Aussie government has been overly conservative in its handling of this - and they don't care in the slightest about tourism or aviation. The government has also delayed vaccine approval for some reason - It's like they're ok with how things are.

If vaccine rollout was going smoothly across the world, I would say start of 2022 - but the rollout is going pretty slowly apart from Israel.

As we can see worldwide, cases are at record highs and rising. We also have two new strains which apparently are more than 70% more transmissible.

Vaccine effectiveness in a mass setting in the real world is actually unknown. Vaccine effectiveness is hopefully as good as it was in trials, but we are still waiting to see if this is the case.

We know QF needs cash. So July 2021 shouldn't even be considered.

 

[DC3]

Things now appear to be moving along quickly in Oz. Vax expected to be rolled out imminently. Millions of doses worldwide, and increasing.

Even in little old Oz, 3.8M doses expected to arrive within weeks. Then, CSL producing 53M doses later this year. Also, 51M doses of Novavax anticipated from the US. And then a few more from memory.

Travel is looking good for later this year.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not sure which thread to put this in... does anyone know where to find information on the requirement to have a negative test result before travel comes into effect? Friend is flying on Monday via AKL into Australia, is the requirement already in place or does it have a starting date? Very short notice to have to get a test in two days and get the result

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not sure which thread to put this in... does anyone know where to find information on the requirement to have a negative test result before travel comes into effect? Friend is flying on Monday via AKL into Australia, is the requirement already in place or does it have a starting date? Very short notice to have to get a test in two days and get the result

I thought I read a rapid test was also possible in ‘exempted’ circumstances.

Based on the webpage below, perhaps keep an eye out for updates by Home affairs or Border Force???

COVID-19 and travel

Find out about travel requirements and steps you can take to stay safe.

www.health.gov.au

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Thanks HFF. They're running around today trying to find out where they can get a test in time, just in case. They will also try the airline (NZ). New Zealand for example is only requiring the test from 15 Jan. Asking for it in the next couple of days, coupled with halved entry caps could be a bit unfair