Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Melburnian1]

I still stand by my comments from when all of this started. International travel will not actually recover at all. By the time countries allow it, and with the restrictions that it will have, there simply will not be any airlines left standing.

Agree many airlines (including, as I've suggested for a long time, VA) will go under, but you may be forgetting that scoundrel's delight - patriotism.

Some national carriers might be bailed out whatever the cost. Air NZ may be one example. LH may be another.

If QF runs out of funds (despite its recent injection of c.A$1b) wouldn't the Federal Govt be under immense pressure to give it a grant/loan/take up equity, reapting history?

The human need for connections with others through trade, large scale previous migration meaning births/weddings/funerals/familial links overseas (even if migration is shortly wound back) and our desire to explore beyond our shores will mean some airlines will exist because there's a sufficient market.

 

[Myrna]

Just want to report back - decided to cancel AS award booking for niece in July to the US (QF flights). Could not cancel online so had to call. Was pleasantly surprised the call was answered in less than 5 mins. The call staff in Phoenix was very nice. AS miles back in account straightaway, refund of taxes will go back into credit card in 2 weeks. Will save the miles for use when the pandemic is truly over and travel is back to normal.

 

[seanQLD]

So far I have cancelled one trip . But I still have 4 return trips Au -> Manila.. business class.. all booked and paid in Jan 2020. I have staff over there and usually work there every other month.

The problem I see is this : "VACCINE"... the fact is having a vaccine *EVER* is not guaranteed. In fact, it is highly likely that there will *never* be a an effective Covid19 vaccine... That is *NEVER* ! I refer to Ian Frazer (developer of the HPV vax that saved 100's of million of lives around the work, who knows a bit about vaccine development )

(click here) NEVER a successful vaccine for any coronavirus before

And in the most optimism scenario - that includes many research breakthroughs - still there will be no publicly available, tested, proven, *effective* vax till late 2021 or 2022... (if ever) .

So forget about any current plans that are contingent on "must be a vaccine". Those plans will require a re-think.

 

[p--and--t]

Rumor: Thai Airways Domestic Fleet To Remain Grounded For 4+ Months, International Flights Restart in July

Thai Airways Fleet To Remain Grounded For Several Months.

loyaltylobby.com

 

[burmans]

So forget about any current plans that are contingent on "must be a vaccine". Those plans will require a re-think.

While true, its also true that a number of other viruses have either died out or were substantially beaten without a vaccine and in a similar timeframe to the 12-18 months that has been suggested!

 

[dajop]

Rumor: Thai Airways Domestic Fleet To Remain Grounded For 4+ Months, International Flights Restart in July

Thai Airways Fleet To Remain Grounded For Several Months.

loyaltylobby.com

Who knows with Thai. A better name for them would perhaps be Random Airways. As what they do and how they run is always very random.

 

[seanQLD]

While true, its also true that a number of other viruses have either died out or were substantially beaten without a vaccine and in a similar timeframe to the 12-18 months that has been suggested!

That is much more likely scenario than a ( proven, tested, effective, safe ) vaccine arriving... "Died out" or become less dangerous over time. Remember with covid19 97% of confirmed cases either have no symptoms or symptoms so mild that they do not require treatment.... Virus experts been saying that progressive H-to-H transmission ultimately will lead to weaker strains of the virus becoming more prevalent.... I expect that to happen in the 6-12 month timeframe, rather than 12-18.... But time will tell. We are all guessing.

 

[samh004]

Not knowing when things will start returning to normal, I booked my first international trip (using QFF points) to Dili for April next year. Figure this gives me the best chance of the flight actually operating.

 

[CityRail]

Rumor: Thai Airways Domestic Fleet To Remain Grounded For 4+ Months, International Flights Restart in July

Thai Airways Fleet To Remain Grounded For Several Months.

loyaltylobby.com

So I wonder if Thai is to suspend domestic flights for so long and international flights can resume earlier than domestic, whether it does make any sense. Common sense will show that domestic flights usually starts earlier than international flights.

 

[KarenD]

Not knowing when things will start returning to normal, I booked my first international trip (using QFF points) to Dili for April next year. Figure this gives me the best chance of the flight actually operating.

We've booked Singapore and Japan for April 2021 too. Fingers crossed

 

[p--and--t]

So I wonder if Thai is to suspend domestic flights for so long and international flights can resume earlier than domestic, whether it does make any sense. Common sense will show that domestic flights usually starts earlier than international flights.

I would guess its an aberration of chaotic decision making, left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing or one second guessing what might happen as opposed to wait and see.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If QF runs out of funds (despite its recent injection of c.A$1b) wouldn't the Federal Govt be under immense pressure to give it a grant/loan/take up equity, reapting history?

I don't think they have much option here - they didn't with VA, they didn't with the car industry, etc. All those companies have Aussie shareholders and superfunds and employ lots of people. Not sure why the govt would single out one over another.

 

[AIRwin]

Not sure why the govt would single out one over another.

It represents the spirit of Australia...

Edit - This marks my 3000th post!

 

[CityRail]

I think in order for international travel to resume, the pre-requisite is that the world's curve needs to be flatten and needs to continue flatten for a sustained period of time.
If you look at the report from SMH or the Guardian, which they have the world coronavirus infection trend, the world's curve has just started to flatten, so it might take some time before the world records a low number of cases so that we can re-open our borders.
In addition, should Oxford University can successfully trials their vaccine in 6 weeks time, then most likely the number of cases will fall dramatically which means international travel can re-open sooner than later.
But I am kinda optimistic that we will be able to travel internationally, at least to Asian countries by the end of the year without the need of quarantine.
There was another post about the Spanish Flu pandemic lasted for 18 months and we braced 3 waves, which could still be possible for Australia, however I think with technological advancement, we might be able to shorten the effects of this by a whole lot, so Scott Morrison's prediction of 6 months appears to be most reasonable to us.

 

[p--and--t]

But I am kinda optimistic

From some of your posts, you would earn a high distinction in the optimist stakes. But that's all good, need a good balance between ying and yang in the world.

 

[burmans]

It represents the spirit of Australia...

Edit - This marks my 3000th post!

While I agree with the theory that government should not favour one company over another, the reality is that they do. The narrative around Virgin was that we weren't going to support foreign shareholders, this would not be the same as Qantas which is undoubtedly an iconic Australian company. Also would suggest again that having two airlines is regarded as a nice to have but having one would be regarded as a must have.

 

[woodborer]

So I wonder if Thai is to suspend domestic flights for so long and international flights can resume earlier than domestic, whether it does make any sense. Common sense will show that domestic flights usually starts earlier than international flights.

I don't think there is anything 'usual' about the current situation. Thailand has plenty of other domestic operators.

 

[theblank]

But I am kinda optimistic that we will be able to travel internationally, at least to Asian countries by the end of the year without the need of quarantine.

Most asian countries are struggling with this virus and will continue to do so. I cant see our govt allowing travel to/from SEA for a very very long time , and many of those countries wont allow travel either. Even once the virus is under control, every country will want to keep it that way, and the way to do that effectively is to keep travellers out.

I doubt I will be golfing in Asia until 2022, unless vaccine or cure is forthcoming by then.

I hope I am wrong, but for now Dubbo is looking good in spring!

 

[woodborer]

If QF runs out of funds (despite its recent injection of c.A$1b) wouldn't the Federal Govt be under immense pressure to give it a grant/loan/take up equity, reapting history?

The government would be under pressure, but whether they would do anything directly is a question.

They've been quietly doing some running around behind the scenes with VA....

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It represents the spirit of Australia...

... for those with platinum status. Let platinums pay for any bailout! I don't want my tax payer $ going towards shadows, the best seats, salt and pepper squid and vintage champagnes in first class lounges, and award seats released to take the family skiing in Aspen.

Oh... and people from Sydney