Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Scr77]

......The logistical work has seemingly not even begun, let alone been scoped - not one report in public domain that I can find on the logistics/requirements of a vaccine rollout.....

I’m not in the know, but we spent a day in August assembling a giant pharmaceutical fridge near Melbourne airport. This was at an import/export warehouse.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... but ordinary service, overpriced food and accommodation and overcrowding are enough to put me off.

Agree. People want to go on holiday to relax. Not be creamed $20+ for a coughtail and $35-40 for a main course. You want to be able to order a second round of drinks at sunset on the beach without worrying about the cost. Not have to worry about hit and miss service when paying credit card surcharges, public holiday surcharges and weekend surcharges. And it's nice to be able to upgrade your room to sea view without forking out hundreds of dollars.

... I can confirm as well that we are really not seeing (despite a big marketing attempt) a great deal of interest in domestic travel.

Advertising and marketing! Pfft... according to big business there is such huge pent-up demand that as soon as the borders open it will be 100% occupancy, all businesses back in profit, everyone employed. No need to advertise!

 

[jb747]

Given your extensive flying experience I am shocked by what you say!

Appalled!

I'd be surprised if we spend $500 for the week, including fuel.

Isn't that what you say after the equivalent to having landed and taxied the plane to the terminal?

Well, when it was someone else's money, I didn't do any accounting at all.

Finding that missing passenger was worth about $500 per minute (for the first few minutes). Taxiing was probably around $10 per second.

 

[ellen10]

We spent 10 weeks in late July, August, September touring in our caravan. We travelled through rural NSW into Queensland outback and then down the coast back to Regional NSW.

Whilst in Queensland we had to always book ahead for a caravan site, the parks were full or at maximise capacity under cover requirements. There were a lot of Queenslanders travelling through out rural Queensland and all tours, venues etc had to be booked a few days ahead or we would miss out. e.g. Stockmans Hall of Fame, Undarra lava caves. We met many friendly Queenslanders who told of us of lots of very interesting places to visit that we had never heard of (even my relatives in Queensland had not heard of them), so many amazing places. Not once did we feel that Queenslanders resented us being in Queensland.

There was a mix of old and young and many older people who loved overseas travel in previous years told us that they thought they would never travel overseas again. Yes some of them were old but many were very fit and active. They said the desire was not there.

Coming back down the NSW north coast we met many families who were embracing the local travel. I work with school age families and they say that they are very actively planning Australian holidays, lots of camping / cabin / apartment type accommodation. A lot of this type of travel people book themselves, and do not engage a travel agent. And I agree Byron Bay is soo overrated! So many nicer beaches and places near by.

On our way home we stopped in the Hunter Valley, wow so many people there! When we chatted to winery owners they said this had been their best year for sales and visits in many many years. And yes we did spend quite a lot of money, but given poor exchange rates and not having to pay for overseas flights we thought we got great value and discovered many places and sites, we never knew were out there.

Don't get me wrong I have booked and loved many years of overseas holidays, right from the planning, reading about destinations, booking, lounges watching those big beautiful birds at the airport and being aboard one. But I feel the demand from everyday Australians will be slow to pick up and I think airlines like Qantas know this and thats why Alan Joyce is basically predicting that the return to travel as we knew it prior to 2020, will be a very slow burn.

 

[jeza]

Simple.Just look at the results for Taiwan.Now just 554 cases,7 deaths and no local transmission for 200 days.Only minor lockdown measures and no internal closures in a nation of 23.6 million.

Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic Covid-19 infection

Authorities thank public for helping to reach milestone as cases surge in many countries

www.theguardian.com

Compare that to Western Australia- 768 cases and 9 deaths with a population of 2.5 million.
So if Taiwan was 2.5 million people they would have had approx 58 cases and 1 death.
Yes Australia have done well but that doesn't mean we couldn't have done better-excellent contact tracing,successful isolation policy,hand washing and mask wearing.

WA is also at no local transmission for over 200 days, I think that fact should also be included in the comparison.

 

[jakeseven7]

And this just in today from Singapore - someone up these does not like us (you pick the direction )
Singapore reports 14 new COVID-19 infections, including 2 community cases who work at Changi Airport

Well this feeds very well into the WA strategy against opening any more future border bubbles...

 

[Antoallison]

Good choice @jb747 - There are some lovely towns in country Victoria to visit.

Can recommend Clunes, Creswick, Maldon. Castlemaine and Beechworth.

Just make sure you get into shops, cafes, museums etc before 3pm - as like WA country towns everything except the pub/s seem to close up early.

 

[dajop]

And this just in today from Singapore - someone up these does not like us (you pick the direction )
Singapore reports 14 new COVID-19 infections, including 2 community cases who work at Changi Airport

That reference is a week old now. Singapore is tracking very similar to Sydney now. In the last 2 weeks, just 6 local cases, although 96 imported cases in hotel quarantine, reflecting the greater number of arrivals I suspect.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/local-situation-report/20201101_daily_report_on_covid-19_cabinet.pdf

Still hoping that at some point Australia will relax restrictions for those who’ve been in SIN for previous 2 weeks, more for the “safe flights” (i.e. no connecting pax ) than for the lack of quarantine. Booked early December to travel (if we don’t get bumped) but much more concerned about boarding the plane with pax connecting from Europe etc than the 14 days hotel quarantine.

 

[Flashback]

That reference is a week old now. Singapore is tracking very similar to Sydney now. In the last 2 weeks, just 6 local cases, although 96 imported cases in hotel quarantine, reflecting the greater number of arrivals I suspect.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/local-situation-report/20201101_daily_report_on_covid-19_cabinet.pdf

Still hoping that at some point Australia will relax restrictions for those who’ve been in SIN for previous 2 weeks, more for the “safe flights” (i.e. no connecting pax ) than for the lack of quarantine. Booked early December to travel (if we don’t get bumped) but much more concerned about boarding the plane with pax connecting from Europe etc than the 14 days hotel quarantine.

If any other European countries become like the UK, it won't be a problem. Domestic and international travel is currently banned here! Unless you're travelling for work purposes, because COVID-19 knows if you are and won't bother you.

 

[jb747]

Hearing from another source, that it's just starting to percolate to the top of the airline management, that bringing the aircraft and crews back on line will be a much more drawn out event than they may have imagined. Even the simplest things, that haven’t been done for months, will take time. For instance, about half of all ID cards are probably now expired. Even in the best of times, it took 6 weeks or so to get replacements.

Good choice @jb747 - There are some lovely towns in country Victoria to visit.

Can recommend Clunes, Creswick, Maldon. Castlemaine and Beechworth..

This one will be Rochester, Sea Lake, Bridgewater, and Colbinabbin, with a side trip to St Arnaud. Painted silos.

 

[Pushka]

Currently in SA there are talks that I'm presuming Australia wide, people spend billions on overseas travel. So the numpties here think that immediately means that people will spend the same billions touring Australia instead and are salivating at the income that means.

Now of course we are stuck in Australia for a bit longer yet so there will be some dollars spent on Australian tourism. But no way in heck would I spend the same amount touring Australia that I would be happy to spend overseas.

 

[Tiki]

We just had a long weekend including 2 nights at a caravan park in Stanthorpe, visits to national parks (free) and 1 night at IC Sanctuary Cove free on points. Total expenses: 2 x nights in a cabin $150, food self-catered with home groceries, $30 petrol, $25 Dominos because hotel food too expensive.

We would have spent more on travel insurance alone (from Aussie insurance company) if the planned trip to Indonesia in June (Sulawesi, Halmahera, Bali) had gone ahead.

 

[oznflfan]

Currently in SA there are talks that I'm presuming Australia wide, people spend billions on overseas travel. So the numpties here think that immediately means that people will spend the same billions touring Australia instead and are salivating at the income that means.

Now of course we are stuck in Australia for a bit longer yet so there will be some dollars spent on Australian tourism. But no way in heck would I spend the same amount touring Australia that I would be happy to spend overseas.

EXACTLY.

Even in years to come when I'm a grey nomad, think I'll still prefer Europe or SE Asia to caravanning around Australia.

 

[John in Melbourne]

But I feel the demand from everyday Australians will be slow to pick up and I think airlines like Qantas know this and thats why Alan Joyce is basically predicting that the return to travel as we knew it prior to 2020, will be a very slow burn.

I agree. I know numerous people who have echoed this sentiment. However, I think that getting a vaccine that works would see demand shoot up. So, fingers crossed!!

 

[Sydney BE]

I've spent close to 2k this year on domestic travel and I'm unlikely to spend too much more as the year is coming to an end and I won't be able to take leave in December.
This is fairly comparable to prior years as I usually take a few weekend trips

Last year I spent over 2k on flights alone going to East Africa.

I can't see myself ever spending as much on domestic travel as I would on international but not having an international trip this year has definitely helped build up savings so when we finally can travel again I'll be planning an even bigger overseas trip

 

[MEL_Traveller]

$25 Dominos because hotel food too expensive.

That's the thing about local holidays... they had a story on the news the other night about the resurgence of Mr Whippy. A shot of the van showed the cheapest soft serve cone was $5, ranging up to $10. Those sorts of prices put a huge pressure on the holiday budget for a family. In Bali there's no such worry.

 

[drron]

EXACTLY.

Even in years to come when I'm a grey nomad, think I'll still prefer Europe or SE Asia to caravanning around Australia.

We will never be seen caravanning around Australia or anywhere else.
Our major OS holidays are quickly coming to an end but we will still enjoy staying in 5 star accommodation in Thailand for the same price as an ordinary motel in Australia.

 

[Denali]

Currently in SA there are talks that I'm presuming Australia wide, people spend billions on overseas travel. So the numpties here think that immediately means that people will spend the same billions touring Australia instead and are salivating at the income that means.

Now of course we are stuck in Australia for a bit longer yet so there will be some dollars spent on Australian tourism. But no way in heck would I spend the same amount touring Australia that I would be happy to spend overseas.

Lots of $ being spent on home comforts. Yard/garden, renos, painting ect, lots of Bunnings vendors cant keep up with demand.

 

[jeza]

Lots of $ being spent on home comforts. Yard/garden, renos, painting ect, lots of Bunnings vendors cant keep up with demand.

Caravans & campers also selling very well, that is flowing through to the vehicles required to tow them.

 

[RAM]

Currently in SA there are talks that I'm presuming Australia wide, people spend billions on overseas travel. So the numpties here think that immediately means that people will spend the same billions touring Australia instead and are salivating at the income that means.

Now of course we are stuck in Australia for a bit longer yet so there will be some dollars spent on Australian tourism. But no way in heck would I spend the same amount touring Australia that I would be happy to spend overseas.

The Australian economy is better off even if none of the $65+bn (2018/19 GDP figure) is spent at all but saved. As Australians spend > $20bn more overseas than foreigners spend in Australia - that means Australia's GDP is 1% higher than it would otherwise have been (GDP approx $2,000 bn). Then add in the annual interest bill on another $20bn owed to foreigners....

Now as has been admitted, the estimate of foreigner spending in Australia had been massively over-estimated as it has been previously assumed that foreign students did not work while in Australia & instead brought the required funds in with them. Indeed that is a condition of the student visa, I believe, that they have sufficient funds to cover their entire first 12 months of costs when they arrive in Australia. The reality is that most wotk at least one job to support themselves, and a minority even send money back to their families. So the real tourism deficit is likely > $30bn.

So consider the different possible outcomes by type of Australian going overseas (economic not demographic) if they do not spend $1 of it:

• Put whole trip on credit card/draw down on additional mortgage repayments - massive interest saving if on CC, still decent saving if re-drawn advance mortgage payments. Possibly shortening of mortgage term by 1 to 4 years. Positive for Australian economy
• Put part of trip on cc/mtge - lesser savings & lesser term shortening. Positive for Australian economy
• Pay for trip entirely out of savings - have greater savings balance (= feel more secure during CV uncertainty) earn next to nothing in additional interest. Still Positive for Australian economy
• Trip/holiday a gift - someone else's financial position is better. Positive for Australian economy

As already stated Australia's GDP will be 1% higher than if the international borders had remained open DESPITE domestic hotels etc losing out. However, domestic tourism in quite a few regional areas are reporting (& AFF feedback) that this has been one of the busiest years. True, duty free shops nearly exclusively for Chinese coach tours are struggling (in the Rocks for example).

Some places also face their own issues such as Tasmania with a much small population & venues. However, the NT has been doing very well prior to the most recent opening announcements and WA's economy as a whole has not missed a beat & grew over 2019/20 despite having its own version of lockdown thanks to the Ruby Princess gift from NSW. This was achieved despite retail sales within WA falling by 6% due to their lockdown. The bounceback has come in the current financial year. Given WA introduced a very strong regional lockdown to protect isolated communities - a bigger decline was expected.

For 2020/21 they are predicting even stronger growth despite assuming the domestic borders remain close until March 2021.